With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. The most common are those in Yellow in the third tier and should be decent if you’re searching for something on a given day. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 68-49
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Atop today’s ranks are Lance Lynn and Corbin Burnes, who need no introduction, but Germán Márquez sneaks in at #3 as he hosts the Marlins in Coors. His slider has been that good and he should be able to succeed despite the elevation.
- Chris Bassitt and Wade Miley are somewhat similar arms, each facing poor lineups in the Rangers and Pirates. Start them without hesitation.
- In the second tier, we have many big names and tough opponents. John Means, Patrick Sandoval, Sandy Alcántara, Alek Manoah, and Marcus Stroman were dealt a tough hand for Friday, but their respective ceilings make the gamble a risk you have to take. Let’s hope we go 60% success rates here.
- Among the mix is Kyle Muller, who gets a shot to cruise against the depleted Nationals squad. I’d keep rolling with Muller until he gives us good reason not to.
- Tier 3 begins with Kyle Gibson, who took a step forward last time out in his audition for the Phillies as he featured an exceptional changeup. Let’s hope it sticks against the Mets and this wasn’t a one time thing.
- I wasn’t impressed with what I saw from David Price last time out and the Angels could give him a tough time, though Price’s cross-town rivals haven’t been quite as blazing hot lately as they were earlier in the summer.
- Kyle Hendricks has been steady over the last two months, though he’s stumbled at times and the ChiSox are a tough obstacle to avoid.
- I’m shocked to see Mike Minor rostered it over 25% of leagues, but this may be a start you want him for. His velocity was up a touch last time out with great secondaries and he could follow “The Cardinal Rule” effectively.
- The streaming pick of the day is Cal Quantrill, who has returned a Quality Start in three of his last four and gets the Tigers here. I don’t love this in the slightest, but I recognize it could work as some “Vargas Rule” this.
- Is Nathan Eovaldi able to survive the massive Jays bats? It’s a close call and in tight matchups, I’d consider being conservative here.
In the final tier, I’m excited to see Deivi García possibly get the ball for the Yankees with Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery on the shelf with COVID. He’s had a major HR problem in the minors as of late, though, and this start is best to avoid. Too much risk here.Nope, Wandy Peralta is starting for the Yankees in a bullpen game. Womp womp.
- He’s a “Toby” at best and I still don’t want to trust Matt Manning on a given night, even if it’s Cleveland. There isn’t enough upside to justify the danger.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Guess what, the top tier has aces. More at eleven. There is a chance for redemption with some of them and I’d start them expecting it, including Yu Darvish and Carlos Rodón. I really hope we see Carlos ramp it back up to 96+ mph after a pair of starts under 95 mph.
- Robbie Ray has been dealt a tough hand facing the Red Sox and hasn’t been at his peak across the last few weeks. Still, he’s very much worth the start.
- The second tier contains José Berríos as he makes his second start for the Jays. It’s his first proper challenge as he squares off against the Red Sox and this one can go either way. The ceiling is worth the risk, though, solidifying him in the second tier.
- After a rough first inning against the Marlins, Tylor Megill settled down nicely and looked more like the arm we’ve seen this season. He should be fine to start against the Phils.
- Cole Irvin kicks off the third tier in a safe matchup against the Rangers. Irvin hasn’t taken advantage of every strong matchup he’s had, though, and this isn’t a lock for success.
- I’m excited to watch more Josiah Gray and Austin Gomber as they get more experience on the bump. Gray brings a mid-90s heater with two whifftastic breakers to the Nationals’ rotation while Gomber’s sub 30% fastball can work wonders. Let’s hope they pull it off.
- The streaming pick of the day is Tanner Houck as he makes what could be his only start of August for the Red Sox. He has a tough matchup against the Jays offense in this doubleheader, but his slider has neutralized many before and could continue plowing through lineups.
- Eli Morgan shocked us with nine strikeouts last time out, fueled by an uptick in velocity to 91 mph + a comfortable set of secondaries. The groove could continue for another outing as he gets a questionable Detroit crew.
- I can see Brad Keller following “The Cardinal Rule” and having himself a lovely night, but the ceiling isn’t worth the floor here save for those in dire need of a Quality Start.
- Jesús Luzardo is set to make his second start for the Marlins, but he has to deal with Coors. He was volatile enough already and the difficult park makes this a bench.
Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)
You have Robbie Ray and Jose Berrios both listed to start for TOR vs. BOS in tomorrow’s rankings.
Ranger Suarez is being stretched out as a starter and I’m not finding any of Nick’s hot takes on the situation. Curious of his value in a keeper league. Did I miss something?