With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings.
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. The most common are those in Yellow in the third tier and should be decent if you’re searching for something on a given day. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 76-56
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s Monday with just seven games being played and sadly we have very few good options to kick off our weeks. Even the #1 play seems a little shaky with Lance Lynn facing the Jays. Without George Springer in the lineup, Toronto has been a little more subdued, but it doesn’t mean Lynn is a lock for demolition.
- Zack Greinke isn’t the flashiest, but he sure is stable and against the Royals, you’re obviously starting him everywhere.
- In the second tier, Alek Manoah has been on fire, but the Chicago White Sox offense could give him a difficult time. I’d still start him, of course, but he avoids the top tier because of that risk.
- Huascar Ynoa returned from the IL and had both his fastball velocity and slider command. The Yankees are tough, but you have to start Ynoa here.
- It’s been great watching Marco Gonzales go on a hot stretch over the last six weeks and the Athletics aren’t a big enough threat to make me reconsider riding this wave.
- With Sunday’s postponement, it looks like Luis Gil is getting skipped over with Jordan Montgomery taking his place. His changeup and curveball are legit and I’d toss him out there.
- Nathan Eovaldi starts today as yesterday’s rainout created a game today for the Red Sox & Rangers. Make sure he’s in your lineup.
- Yes, there is no third tier today. These arms are either “yeah, you should start them” or “oh heavens no”. Some days it’s just simple like that.
- It’s too bad Daniel Lynch has to face an offense like Houston, though he has the ability to leave the match unscathed – he allowed just 1 ER across seven innings just last week. It’s unlikely for him to repeat his success, but I hope he defies us once again, making him my reluctant streaming pick of the day.
- Antonio Senzatela has been decent over the last month and hey, maybe he can be productive in Wrigley against the struggling Cubs.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s the top tier and you don’t need me. There may be some contention starting Charlie Morton against the Yankees, but the man has been incredibly productive through the year and now is not the time to second guess him. Let him fly.
- It’s a road start for Tyler Mahle, which means you’re safe, even if the Brewers are Top 5 in wRC+ over the last thirty days.
- In the second tier, we have Julio Urías likely returning from the IL to face the Padres. The Friars haven’t wielded a sharp bat as of late and I’d feel fine letting Urías go.
- I hope the red Sox will allow Tanner Houck to go at least five frames this time around, but Houck’s stuff certainly deserves the innings.
- In the third tier, we have Cole Irvin leading off as he gets the Mariners. The man is a Toby and has done everything to showcase he can be serviceable against a mediocre Seattle offense.
- The streaming pick of the day is Eli Morgan, who is rostered in just 4% of leagues. He’s flexed good enough command to make this start worthwhile as he faces the susceptible Rangers.
- I want to rank Dylan Cease higher and while the Jays are without George Springer, this is still a high risk/reward outing. This choice is in your hands.
- Tylor Megill was able to survive the Giants last week, but he did so without his changeup and with a heavy reliance on heaters. I’m not sure he can replicate success with the same approach, but there’s a chance the slow ball returns and propels production.
- In the bottom tier, Erick Fedde could be of interest as he faces the Marlins. The ceiling is awfully low, though, and remember, Don’t Trust The Feddes.
- I can see Taylor Hearn getting a glance or two for his start against Cleveland. His stuff doesn’t jump off the page, though, and I worry he’ll labor through this one with a decent chance of missing the five-inning mark.
- It’s wild to see Jesús Luzardo in the Do Not Start tier against the Nationals, but we simply haven’t seen him excel in a long time. He’s on some rosters still as an upside stash and hopefully this is the start that gets us talking about him once again. Until that outing arrives, I’d not put myself in harm’s way.
- We’re in the dark when Yu Darvish will be starting for the Padres this week, but there’s a chance it’s against the Dodgers on Tuesday. If so, I’d place him at the end of the second tier. For now, I have this listed as a TBD starter.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)