With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 48-34
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s fun seeing plenty of aces getting ideal matchups on Friday, including Carlos Rodón, Framber Valdez, and Corbin Burnes. This should be fun.
- With the way Chris Paddack has been pitching as of late, managers should be salivating at his next outing against the Sneks. His changeup was pristine, while he sat 97 mph just two starts ago. Here’s to seeing prime 2019 Paddack once again.
- The second tier kicks off with Aaron Nola, who lost his AGA label after his last outing and is searching for his mojo. Some may want him in the third tier, but his stuff is still great and the Mets haven’t quite reclaimed their title as a top offense yet.
- At the end of the second tier, Alek Manoah faces the Orioles and should be started by managers. He’s currently appealing his five-game suspension and I’m guessing he’ll start this game, then take the mini-vacation, pushing back his next outing by a day.
- Mike Minor welcomes us into the third tier as he gets a solid matchup against the Rangers. Minor has the ability to take advantage, but a low enough floor to make this a tough choice for managers.
- The streaming pick of the day is Jon Lester as he faces the Marlins. Yes, it’s a reluctant one and I feel incredibly…uneasy about it, but Lester has been better as of late and Miami isn’t a team to fear.
- I considered Jon Gray as the main play of the tier as he heads to Milwaukee, but he’s returning from the IL after tossing 62 pitches in his rehab start. It caps his ceiling + we don’t know where he is with his feel + it’s still Jonny G.
- I wish Tony Gonsolin inspired more confidence, but the Dodgers mentioned he still has some shoulder soreness and we still haven’t seen his slider come to life. Be cautious.
- In the final tier, there are a handful of arms who arguably belong in the third tier, beginning with Dane Dunning against the Royals. Dunning was rough to watch against the Twins and it may carry over into the Kansas City outing.
- It’s surprising to see Johnny Cueto earn a near 15% SwStr on his four-seamer thus far and it may allow him to do well against Oakland. The reward may not be worth your effort, though.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- We have some fun names in the top tier for Saturday and I’m not talking about Jacob deGrom and Lance Lynn. No, we’re seeing Adam Wainwright get the Pirates and those that roster him know he can go 7+ against the weak offense. Let’s just hope the cutter is on point.
- Kyle Gibson also gets the nod in the top tier as the man simply can’t be stopped. The Royals make it an easier pill to swallow as well.
- I debated Luis Castillo a bit and in the end, while I’m still waiting for his changeup to have that game, he’s certainly done enough to warrant the start with 98 mph heaters and surviving the Padres.
- Ian Anderson may bring some hesitation as well as he heads to the bandbox that is Cincy. His stuff is good enough to grind out quality innings and it’s hard to deny the opportunity.
- In the second tier, JT Brubaker (aka Coffee Cakes) gets the Cardinals and it’s full steam ahead. Brubaker has proven himself a steady arm when facing non-elite offenses and his slider should make good work of the St. Louis lineup.
- Former aces Kenta Maeda and Patrick Corbin have each seemingly taken steps forward as of late and have been gifted a wonderful matchup over the weekend. It’s the perfect launching pad for them to reclaim their lost abilities.
- It gets messy per usual in the third tier as Frankie Montas is fresh off a disaster against the Rangers. We saw a dramatic dip in spin rates, making us wonder if Montas can be the steady rock we need him to be without the sticky stuff.
- Alex Cobb is the streaming pick of the day as we wish for his splitter to be on point + he’s able to get ahead with taken curveballs in the zone. There are many better options for Sunday (Sandoval, Stripling, Odorizzi, etc.) but Cobb is the best choice if you’re searching for something a day early.
- It’ll be a major test for Casey Mize as he enters the ring against the mighty Houston offense, now with a healthy Kyle Tucker. He’s done well with his slider/fastball combo as of late and let’s see if he can make it happen.
- I’d much rather put Alex Wood higher in the ranks, but he hasn’t had his slider for a couple weeks now. Without that sweeper, Wood just doesn’t bring enough to the table.
- Don’t overlook Zach Thompson if the Marlins confirm him as a starter. It’s a deep option, but his cutter has caused fits and he could grind 5/6 frames against a middling Nationals squad.
- Then there’s the polarizing Adrian Houser who has been treated to a date with Rockie Road in Milwaukee. Houser has had bouts of success when his curveball has supported his heater, though it’s tough to predict when that will happen.
- In the “Do Not Start” column, we begin with Kris Bubic, who looked as good as I’ve ever seen him against the Yankees…but it was across just 21 pitches. It’s unclear how long he’s able to go in this one – which isn’t 100% confirmed yet. I’ll have my eye on him, though.
- Merrill Kelly has been intriguing as of late, pushing 92/93 mph velocity instead of the 90/91 we’ve seen at times. It’s the Padres, but there’s a chance of production here.
Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)
Thanks for Lester rec….