With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 47-34
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s a weak day for pitching with just four arms in the top tier for Thursday. Chris Bassitt gets the call as the third best option as he hopes to continue his glorious run with a luscious matchup against the Rangers. I don’t see a world where you’re not starting him.
- The same goes for Luis Garcia, who gets a cushy date with the Tigers. His slider and cutter have been fantastic and should propel him to success.
- In the second tier, it’s just Joe Ross, the streaming pick of the day as he squares off against Miami. The Marlins are not a team to fear and Ross has displayed the ability to carve six innings constantly. I’m all for this (just don’t go 0/36 whiffs on sliders again!).
- Jameson Taillon kicks off the third tier as he’s set to face the Royals. In better times, this would be a Tier 2 – or even Tier 1 – play, but with Taillon’s struggles with his secondaries, he’s a dangerous option on any given day. Let’s hope he can give us that start on Thursday.
- It may be weird to see Brad Keller and Cody Poteet above the final tier, but hear me out. Keller had 95 mph velocity against the Red Sox and could power through the inconsistent Yankee bats. Poteet is now in his post-Still ILL outing and could return 5-6 innings of quality for those in need. It’s a slightly higher floor than Pivetta and Allard, granting him the third-tier spot.
- Speaking of Nick Pivetta, he’s the best play in the final tier as he could bring the BSB against the Rays. Tampa Bay has gotten better offensively (It’s Wanderfull) and Pivetta’s volatility is nothing to ignore.
- Kolby Allard has been shockingly decent across his last four starts, holding offenses to 2 ER or fewer in each of them. I don’t buy it for the long haul and it very well may stop with Oakland, but I’m not ignoring the chance above the other…unattractive options.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’s fun seeing plenty of aces getting ideal matchups on Friday, including Carlos Rodón, Framber Valdez, and Corbin Burnes. This should be fun.
- With the way Chris Paddack has been pitching as of late, managers should be salivating at his next outing against the Sneks. His changeup was pristine, while he sat 97 mph just two starts ago. Here’s to seeing prime 2019 Paddack once again.
- The second tier kicks off with Aaron Nola, who lost his AGA label after his last outing and is searching for his mojo. Some may want him in the third tier, but his stuff is still great and the Mets haven’t quite reclaimed their title as a top offense yet.
- At the end of the second tier, Alek Manoah faces the Orioles and should be started by managers. He’s currently appealing his five-game suspension and I’m guessing he’ll start this game, then take the mini-vacation, pushing back his next outing by a day.
- Mike Minor welcomes us into the third tier as he gets a solid matchup against the Rangers. Minor has the ability to take advantage, but a low enough floor to make this a tough choice for managers.
- The streaming pick of the day is Jon Lester as he faces the Marlins. Yes, it’s a reluctant one and I feel incredibly…uneasy about it, but Lester has been better as of late and Miami isn’t a team to fear.
- I considered Jon Gray as the main play of the tier as he heads to Milwaukee, but he’s returning from the IL after tossing 62 pitches in his rehab start. It caps his ceiling + we don’t know where he is with his feel + it’s still Jonny G.
- I wish Tony Gonsolin inspired more confidence, but the Dodgers mentioned he still has some shoulder soreness and with still haven’t seen his slider come to life. Be cautious.
- In the final tier, there are a handful of arms who arguably belong in the third tier, beginning with Dane Dunning against the Royals. Dunning was rough to watch against the Twins and it may carry over into the Kansas City outing.
- It’s surprising to see Johnny Cueto earn a near 15% SwStr on his four-seamer thus far and it may allow him to do well against Oakland. The reward may not be worth your effort, though.
Photo by Samuel Stringer/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)