With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 44-33
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It looks like Hyun Jin Ryu gets the top spot despite a tough three-start stretch and facing one of the better teams against lefties on Sunday. Let’s all wish him luck.
- Taijuan Walker has done everything right to earn his spot in the top tier as well and should be able to take advantage of the middling Nationals lineup.
- The second tier is…interesting today. It’s filled with hesitations but all are defiantly a step above those in Tier 3. It starts with Kenta Maeda who should be able to push 80 pitches against the Rangers, but didn’t have his sharpest slider and fastball last time out. He should be worth your time, though.
- Following him is Dinelson Lamet, who is beginning to push 5+ inning for the Padres and give us a glimpse at the pre-injured arm we anticipated in March. this could be the start where he begins to explode.
- Sean Manaea and Casey Mize have each been on a great roll as of late and should make for good options against decent squads, while Shane McClanahan has a lovely matchup but gives us concerns about his length in starts.
- How many pitches is Lance McCullers going to throw? And will they be of quality after his slider and curveball didn’t show up last time? It’s just worth the start but it gives me more anxiety than I’d like.
- Kicking off the third tier is Luis Castillo, who has certainly looked better as of late, but he gets a legit test in the mighty Padres offense. It’s unclear if he’s up to snuff as he’s failed to get the changeup whiffs we’ve seen across the years.
- Patrick Corbin had one of his better performances last time out and the question is if he can keep up the slider and fastball command for a second start. Let’s hope it’s there.
- It’s a very tough call between Tony Gonsolin and Dylan Bundy, both starters with a fantastic matchup ahead. Gonsolin has failed to carry his excellent slider into 2021 so far, while Bundy is enduring a tough moment in his seasonal journey. Both arms should be well worth your roster spot come All-Star break, but for now, it’s hard to tell if they’ll show up
- I constantly feel Jordan Montgomery is on the brink of putting it all together with consistency, but he has stumbled plenty this season. If his curveball and changeup are demanding strikes, this could be a successful time hosting the A’s.
- Dane Dunning is the backup streaming pick of the day as he faces the Twins. Dunning has proven beneficial as he faces weak squads, though the Twins could put up a fight. I’d avoid if I could.
- Kwang Hyun Kim is another option for a deep stream as he’s had moments dominating with his slider. Don’t rule it out for a desperate Sunday.
- In the final tier, I question how much we’ll see of Alec Mills, who tossed 57 pitches in his last appearance. If he’s able to go close to 80 pitches, this could provide dividends, but I’m imaging too short of a stint to be fruitful.
- Sammy Long is another option as he’ll make his third “start” for the Giants. Here’s your Hail Mary play for a Win as he could act as the bulk follower once again.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- We have a short slate but who cares, Jacob deGrom should be starting a game of this doubleheader. Maybe he can actually go the full game this time around and let’s all cross our fingers he pitches without a hitch.
- Yu Darvish and Julio Urías have a duel ahead of them as the Padres and Dodgers lock horns once again. Darvish should recover from Coors, though the spin rate questions will linger. Urías is worth the start despite his hiccups and will help make this a fantastic matchup.
- In the second tier is Kyle Gibson, who makes a great argument for the first tier given the ridiculous run he’s on. I’ve labeled it a Vargas Rule, though, and it’s not quite as overwhelming as the ones above. Sitll start him, of course.
- The Astros are moving to a six-man rotation, meaning Jake Odorizzi no longer gets limited and can go 5-6 innings. With a date against the Orioles as a right-hander, he’s my clear streaming pick of the day.
- I’m excited to see Adbert Alzolay return to the rotation for the Cubs after enduring a blister. I’m concerned he’ll be limited and/or won’t have the same feel for his pitches, so let’s be cautious and lean toward “Still Ill” treatment.
- The backup streaming pick would be Merrill Kelly against the Brewers as he has expressed upside when he tosses 92/93 mph heaters. We don’t know what we’re going to get, though, so I’d rather play it safe and look elsewhere.
- In the final tier, Brett Anderson is also a decent play for a desperate stream – he seems to have random bouts of bliss more than most low-tier arms. Too much risk for standard leagues, though.
- J.A. Happ could have another four-seamer whiff heavy start against the Reds, but the risk isn’t worth the reward against the powerful Reds offense.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)
Oviedo goin tomorrow @ det?