SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 4/5 & 4/6

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Yellow my streaming pick of the day. These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• Finally, we get Jacob deGrom pitching again. PHEW. Too bad it’s not against each other, but at the very least, now deGrom is facing a weaker arm on the opposite side and being off-set in the rotation could result in a clear 20-win season for a change.
• I’ve also put Jordan Montgomery into this top tier and it may be a bit of a stretch. Still, I believe in JorMont against a sputtering Orioles lineup (save for Sunday’s game!) and I believe if you drafted him, he’s worth the start.

 

• Look at Dustin May, the only pitcher inside Tier 2, and I was contemplating putting him into the third tier instead. I can’t help but wonder if the Dodgers will pull him well before six frames, though going more than five in his final spring tune-up made me push him into Tier 2. If you’ve rostered him, you’re starting him.

 

• I think the biggest shock for y’all will be Carlos Rodon as the sixth-best option for Monday and my SPotD (Streaming Pick of the Day). He’s had a great camp and throwing harder than ever and gets matched up against a weak Seattle lineup and that’s as good as you can hope for when there are so many risky options here. Please note – he’s still in Tier 3. This is not a lock at all.
• Trevor Rogers is slotted right below him and I can understand those frustrated he’s not above Rodon. One major reason why – The Cardinals are a solid offense. It’s that straightforward. Here’s to hoping he dominates them.

 

• As much as I want to say start Frankie Montas, that Dodgers offense is as elite as they come. I’d love to be conservative with Montas wherever I can.
• Matt Shoemaker, Danny Duffy, and Steven Matz all carry some interesting veteran upside, each with the ability to go at least five and grant a Win against a blegh lineup. All sneaky streams today if you need a win.

 

• I know some are high on Logan Allen, but I expect Cleveland to piggy-back him today, meaning he’s unlikely to go five or six strong, and that’s without recognizing the haze surrounding his ability.
• JT Brubaker is a fun choice, though I’m a little scared of the Reds lineup at the moment. Proceed with caution.

 

• There are plenty of pitchers to avoid on Monday and most of them are a result of poor matchups. I have this feeling Nick Pivetta can pull it off against Tampa Bay, but do you really want to take that chance?
• On the other side of that start is Michael Wacha, who had increased velocity in spring, but it came down in his final appearance. The Sawx have failed to swing a big bat early and I wonder if Wacha could surprise. Waaaay too risky, though.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• Pretty easy choices for auto-starts here. I was a bit tempted to slot Tyler Glasnow above Clayton Kershaw after Glasnow’s pure dominance on opening day, though we can’t assume Glasnow’s slider is going to be that overwhelming in all his future starts now and Kershaw had to deal with Coors.
• You know me, I’m most excited to watch Sandy Alcantara a second time (sorry Max Scherzer). Here’s hoping we see consistent sliders and 93 mph changeups.

 

• I think the biggest question in Tier 2 is if James Paxton can be trusted against the White Sox. Given his performance in the spring, I have to believe he’s more like this pre-2020 self, making him a clear play despite the rough matchup.
• My Streaming Pick of the Day is J.A. Happ against the Tigers. He has a fantastic offense behind him and should be able to deal with Detroit’s questionable offense.

 

• I know we’re all excited about both Freddy Peralta and Adbert Alzolay getting their first starts this season, though each carries a creaky floor. Peralta wasn’t particularly command-focused during Thursday’s extended relief appearance and Alzolay isn’t quite a finished product yet. It’ll be a fun matchup to watch as they square off, though you may want to wait one more week before letting them fly.
• Yes, that’s Wade Miley, who has a glorious schedule and could take advantage of the Pirates lineup without Ke’Bryan Hayes. A possible sneaky play for a Win or QS.

 

• Lots of interesting starters with poor matchups in the bottom tier, including Casey Mize, Dane Dunning, and Griffin Canning. There will be days that we target them in fantasy, that doesn’t mean you have to today.

 

Photo by Tom Hagerty | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)