SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 4/28 & 4/29

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!) . These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s Jacob deGrom day and y’all should be thrilled. It’s a wonderful day.
• There’s some debate about the order of the first-tier arms, as I have Clayton Kershaw – the highest arm on The List – facing the toughest opponent in the Reds. I’m leaning TATIAGA as he’s endured the Padres thus far and survived. This should still work well for you.

 

• Alex Wood and German Marquez square off in San Francisco and kick off the second tier. Wood’s new slider and increased velocity against the coveted Rockie Road lineup makes him the top play, while I hope Marquez can keep his fantastic curveball/slider combination from his last outing.
• Despite struggling in his last altercation with the Cubs, I’d still roll out Huascar Ynoa with confidence against the Cubs. His fastball + slider are legit.

 

• The bottom third of the tier could arguably be labeled Questionable starts. Sonny Gray has quite gotten in a rhythm yet as he returned from the IL with a back injury and with the Dodgers ahead, this may instill fear. However, this could be the start Sonny’s slider and curveball work in tandem, with the reward worth the risk.
• Meanwhile, Kyle Hendricks hasn’t looked like the safe choice he appeared to be in your drafts, but his long track record suggests a rebound is coming in due time. Don’t forget, the Braves held just one hit across Sunday’s doubleheader. This is likely worth the start.

 

• Mike Minor is the streaming pick of the day as he’s lined up to battle the Pirates. He just fanned nine Tigers last week and should carry that into a comfortable stream on Wednesday.
• Despite getting the Orioles, I’m hesitant to let Domingo German fly. He struggled heavily with his 90/91 mph fastball last week against Cleveland and the floor is plenty lower than I’d like it to be. He’s the best of the third tier, but it’s not a confident start by any means.

 

• J.A. Happ is fresh of a no-hit bid and this date with Cleveland should attract many pickups. Still, don’t overlook his low IPS across his first two starts that may return here.
• I’m not in love with starting Justin Dunn against the Altuve-powered Astros, but given the rest of the pack, I’m more inclined to lean on Dunn’s fastball/slider arsenal than the weaker lineups of the other options.

 

• In the final tier, I led off with Johan Oviedo as I’m not sure how deep he’ll go for the Cardinals. There is some excitement in his 94-97 mph fastball with a slider that can miss bats. The likely low pitch count and questionable command make him intriguing, but with a solidified “avoid” label.
• It looks like Dean Kremer could be called up to make a start against the Yankees and while the Bronx Bombers are doing little to defend their name, Kremer hasn’t quite showcased the same upside we saw in 2020. It’s a desperate stream.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s lonesome in the top tiers on Thursday. Trevor Bauer and Aaron Nola are clear aces and should capitalize facing middling lineups.
• Jordan Montgomery and Chris Bassitt aren’t your prototypical Tier 2 plays, but they are a clear cut above the rest of the options and should not be benched where you roster them.

 

• Tier three doesn’t inspire much confidence. Matthew Boyd is a Vargas Rule for me as long as that slider isn’t earning whiffs. His changeup is just so good right now.
• We’ve all been fawning over Freddy Peralta and his new slider, but should we be starting him against the mighty Dodgers? It’s a legit Cherry Bomb scenario and plan accordingly.

 

• Speaking of Vargas Rule, I’m not too confident in Kyle Gibson’s hot streak continuing against Boston, though I understand those who want to keep riding the hot hand.
• It’s not confirmed that Ryan Yarbrough will toss the first of the game for the Rays, but he’ll at the very least be the bulk pitcher for Thursday’s matchup against Oakland. Hopefully he can stave off their streaky bats for a solid outing.

 

• It looks like Kent Emanuel could get the ball for the Astros as Jake Odorizzi is out with a forearm injury. The man did just toss 8.2 frames of stellar baseball and while we don’t quite know what to expect, the Mariners make this an option to consider.
• The streaming pick today is Kwang Hyun Kim who is fresh off an eight strikeout performance. I’m not in love with a date against Philly, but he’s the clear choice with his ratio and surprising strikeout upside.

 

• I debated slotting this many arms into tier four, at first listing all through Luke Weaver as a questionable option. It’s a mix of decent arms with poor matchups and questionable talent against weak offenses and in the end, I don’t feel confident with any of them.
• If you’re looking for strikeout upside, though, Adbert Alzolay is your guy against Atlanta. That slider will earn plenty of whiffs, but his fastball command is dangerous and he’ll likely get the hook before six full frames.

 

Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)