SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 4/19 & 4/20

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!) . These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s a day-off for nearly half the league, but we still have some aces here with Lucas Giolito leading the way despite a somewhat tough matchup against Boston. You can’t say no.
• Slightly tough call between Brandon Woodruff and Joe Musgrove as they square off, but even with the tougher matchup, Woodruff has a longer track record to earn the higher rank.

 

• It wasn’t the shiniest start from Dustin May last time out, but you’re certainly starting him against the Mariners if you have him rostered.
• Danny Duffy sat 94/95 in his last outing, reminiscent of his 2016 breakout season and if it pans out against Tampa Bay, he’ll be a hold for the Tigers after. He’s the clear streaming pick of the day.
• The final three of the third tier are distinctly separate from the aforementioned pair and I’m letting Joe Ross take the lead as he’s had a pair of strong outings behind him.

 

• You may be tempted to start Nathan Eovaldi and I’m a little cautious as the White Sox are no joke. In addition, his repertoire has leaned on breakers lately and I’m skeptical that can stick. Be cautious.
• Lastly, there are a trio of potential Tobys who I wouldn’t like to start my week with. Kohei Arihara and Justis Sheffield could demolish your ratios quickly – yes, even if Quintana gets the Rangers. Don’t start them lightly.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• While Corbin Burnes has the toughest matchup of the lot, with the way he’s pitching it’s hard to deny him the #1 spot when no Top 10 arm is on the bump.
• I imagine Zac Gallen will be above Hyun-Jin Ryu in future weeks, but for now, he’s likely on a stricter pitch count and slides right underneath Ryu.

 

• After throwing a no-hitter against Cleveland, can you really deny Carlos Rodon a repeat start?
• At the tail end of Tier 1, Julio Urias and Zach Plesac should still be started despite a recent hiccup. Urias didn’t pitch as poorly as the line suggested while Plesac is sure to avoid cataclysm in a repeat matchup.

 

• Tier 2 is short today with Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers each normally in Tier 1, but with a pair of tough opponents, they are relegated to the second group. You should still be starting them.
• There’s a question of how much we’ll actually see of Shohei Ohtani, but even if he has a short stint, the quality should be there against the pedestrian Rangers squad.

 

• We’re continuing to monitor the ramp-up of Jameson Taillon and while I think he should be taking steps forward with each start, he hits an obstacle with Atlanta. I’m leaning start, but I understand those who want to be conservative.
• For those hesitant to start Jesus Luzardo, I believe Luzardo has the TIARA and should recover in the near future, making his risk likely worth the reward.

 

• Matt Shoemaker finally gets another start and this could be fruitful as he’s been cruising with sliders. His success could continue against the whiff-heavy Athletics, making him the streaming pick of the day.
• Yes, I know. You don’t want to start Patrick Corbin and I completely understand if you’re benching him. I don’t think he’s this bad in the long run and at some point, he’ll get it fixed. Maybe it’s against the Cardinals, maybe it’s in a few weeks. Up to you.

 

• Michael Fulmer was nearly the streaming pick of the day, but more out of a lack of options rather than my own conviction. It’s great to see his velocity spike last time out and his slider is solid, but without the changeup working in his arsenal, I’m worried there isn’t enough for consistent success, even against the lowly Pirates.
• It’s been a rough year for Marco Gonzales so far and it doesn’t get easier against the Dodgers. It’s not a death sentence, though, and if he has his command back, he can endure the gauntlet of Los Angeles.

 

• Ending Tier 3 is Jordan Lyles, who gets elevated by an effective new slider. Paired with his big breaker, there’s a chance this works out.
• Tier 4 has few standouts, and I had to push Jon Gray this far down as he faces the likely healthy Astros inside Coors. Sorry Gray, I’m not a man of danger.

 

Photo by Tom Hagerty | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)