SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 4/14 & 4/15

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!) . These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• A strong collection of starters in Tier 1 today and I’m electing to favor Corbin Burnes at the top followed by Joe Musgrove, despite Kenta Maeda’s #11 ranking on The List. Yesterday’s Top 100 is all about season-long and I believe in Maeda for the next 5+ months, but we can’t deny how well Musgrove and Burnes are pitching at the moment + they have excellent matchups for Wednesday.
• Yes, Dustin May sneaks into the top tier as he has the best matchup in baseball – a date with Rockie Road in a pitcher’s park.

 

• Carlos Rodon is starting on Wednesday after missing his Monday start with an illness. I’d still start him against the questionable Cleveland lineup if he gets the chance.
• Corey Kluber hasn’t been as dazzling as we’d hoped out of the gate, but I’m expecting him to take steps forward with each April outing. He’s likely worth the start against the Jays, though I’ve demoted him to leading Tier 3.

 

• Griffin Canning gets the nod as the streaming pick of the day as he could bring his strikeout upside in full force against the middling Royals lineup.
• Quick update for today: Rich Hill is starting tomorrow instead as Josh Fleming slots into the rotation. I’m not sure how many innings Fleming can go, though he has every opportunity to succeed against the Rangers.

 

• I was tempted to make Justin Dunn the leader of the tier, despite allowing eight walks in his season opener. I’m seeing that outing in the same light as his MLB debut, where he walked five in just 0.2 innings. He was anxious, walked everyone, and I’m expecting a much more relaxed and in control pitcher against the Orioles. Don’t forget, he has an improved slider and increased velocity.
• There’s a chance Jake Arrieta can pull this off for another outing as he faces the Brewers, though this is more of a Vargas Rule than anything.

 

• No, Johnny Cueto isn’t suddenly a stud after going 8.2 frames in his last outing. He faced the Rockies, on the road, and in Oracle Park. The Reds are plenty dangerous and don’t ignore it.
• While I don’t believe that Joe Ross can survive with just four whiffs constantly, I can’t ignore that he made it work against the strong Dodgers last time. Maybe he can survive against the Cardinals, too.

 

• It may surprise you, but Tyler Anderson is inside the Top 10 in SwStr% so far this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have allowed fantastic evenings from Mike Foltynewicz and Trevor Cahill. There’s a chance this works.
• Even though Michael Fulmer finally gets the start, I wouldn’t expect him to do well. The Astros are tough and he still doesn’t have his changeup back. I really hope he can find it in this one.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• Despite allowing 4 ER against the Phillies last time out, I’d still start Ian Anderson everywhere without anxiety. He should be a worthy start through the year save for the toughest of offenses.
• I’m a little worried about Aaron Civale against the White Sox, as he hasn’t quite gotten into the rhythm we anticipated during the off-season. I’m still letting him fly, but there is an argument to be made to be conservative in shallow leagues.

 

• Yes, I’m starting Patrick Corbin against the Diamondbacks and I think it’s worth the gamble against a mediocre lineup. Keep in mind, his first start was after a disruptive COVID-IL stint + against the mighty Dodgers. With a game under his belt, we should see an improved Corbin.
• Look at Trevor Rogers go, as I can’t justify sitting him even if he faces a dangerous Atlanta squad. He was just too good against the Mets over the weekend.

 

• Even with his problematic fastball, Chris Paddack has every opportunity to succeed against the Pirates. Here’s to a start that instills confidence moving forward.
• I don’t think I need to convince you to start Sean Manaea against the Tigers, even after they roughed up Zack Greinke and Jake Odorizzi. Don’t overthink it.

 

• I originally had Steven Matz in Tier 3, but the Royals aren’t inspiring fear and Matz has looked locked in to begin the year. If you have Matz, you’re clearly starting him.
• That makes Marco Gonzales the lead of the “Questionable Starts” and I really hope this pans out. He’s held questionable fastball command across his first two games and if he struggles against the Orioles, can you really trust him to turn it around?

 

• It brought me no happiness to watch Zach Eflin fail to find his curveball last outing, going from a 19% usage to just 8% thrown. This inconsistency has me wondering how often we can trust Eflin and a date with the Mets makes this a harder start to buy into.
• My streaming pick of the day is Bruce Zimmerman, who teeters the line of “solid” and “mediocre”. He’s executed well in two starts against the Red Sox and should be able to capitalize in a comfortable evening against the Mariners.

 

• I know, it’s the Padres, but Mitch Keller’s fastball was excellent against the Cubs last week. He still needs to refine his slider, but with time, I believe it will come. Don’t rule out another step forward against San Diego.
• Can Tarik Skubal get back on track against Oakland? Here’s to hoping he can find his secondary stuff as his season-long search continues.

 

• I know many are excited about Jakob Junis‘ new cutter, but I don’t see it as a major shift from the Junis we already knew – he has one great pitch, a 91 mph fastball, and nothing else to support him. I hope to be wrong – maybe his slider returns with the new cutter? – but for now, this is too risky of a play against a powerful Jays crew.
• It shocked me to see Jordan Lyles heavily rely on a slider instead of a curveball across his first two starts, for those in deep leagues, there is a shot that it works against the Rays. Avoid in your standard leagues.

 

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