SP Future Schedules – Week 8

Justin Wick breaks down the good and bad starter schedules ahead

Great Schedules


Hyun Jin Ryu (TOR)   5/23 vs. TB   5/28 @ CLE   6/2 vs. MIA

*Avoids NYY 5/25-27, HOU 6/4-5

Some opportune scheduling will end a tough stretch of opponents for Hyun Jin Ryu. He has made eight starts on the year, five of them coming against an opponent ranking 12th or better in wRC+. He last pitched on Tuesday against the Red Sox, tossing seven scoreless innings against the fourth-best wRC+ in baseball. Ryu will now look ahead to the Rays which could prove to be a tough opponent (5th in wRC+), but he also shut them out in a previous start this year. He will follow it up with Cleveland and Miami, both raking 24th or worse in wRC+. Ryu will soon find himself on the bad schedule list again, however, as he looks to the White Sox and Red Sox later in June.


Lance Lynn (CHW)   5/24 vs. STL   5/29 vs. BAL   6/3 vs. DET

*Avoids NYY 5/21-23

Lance Lynn’s success in Chicago has picked up right where he left off in Texas, posting a 1.55 ERA in 40 2/3 innings this year. He has already worked through some tough lineups in the Twins and Angels, allowing a combined two earned runs in 15 2/3 frams against those tough-hitting foes. His road ahead will feature the 15th, 22nd and 29th-ranked wRC+, and Lynn will set off to continues his forward momentum with three consecutive home starts. The White Sox will take on the Yankees this weekend and Lynn will not be in line to pitch, having last thrown on Tuesday.


Tucker Davidson (ATL)   5/23 vs. PIT   5/28 @ NYM   6/2 vs. WAS

*One start on season/schedule may change

With Huascar Ynoa on the injured list, the Braves may call upon Tucker Davidson for some routine starts over the next few weeks. Davidson made his season debut on Tuesday — his second career appearance — and allowed three runs to the Mets over six innings. He will look ahead to the 27th, 20th and 17th-ranked wRC+ in his next three starts.


Kyle Hendricks (CHC)   5/21 @ STL   5/26 @ PIT 

Kyle Hendricks faced the Pirates and Tigers in his past two outings; his schedule will get marginally difficult but it won’t be a huge hassle if he pitches like he has in his last three appearances (20 IP, 6 ER). Hendricks will pitch in St. Louis this evening against the 15th-ranked wRC+, followed by the Pirates on the road (27th). He will look to face the Padres at the end of May, however, and their offensive figures could be on the rise with the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Eric Hosmer.


Patrick Corbin (WAS)   5/23 vs. BAL   5/28 vs. MIL   6/2 @ ATL

*Avoids CIN 5/23-27

Patrick Corbin currently holds a 6.10 ERA and will look to rite the ship as his schedule turns a little easier. Corbin faced the Cubs and Yankees in two of his last three outings, and will anticipate the Orioles and Brewers to close out May. Both teams rank 22nd or lower in wRC+ and Corbin’s third opponent on the horizon, the Braves have a slightly-below-average wRC+.


José Ureña   5/21 @ KC   5/26 vs. CLE   5/31 @ MIL

*Avoids NYY 5/28-30

Kansas City, Cleveland and Milwaukee rank 23rd, 25th and 28th in wRC+, and only Cleveland has a winning record right now. Jose Ureña will avoid the Yankees in between his start with Cleveland and Milwaukee. It could be timely for Ureña to be placed on the ‘good’ schedule list, as his ERA has jumped from a 1.29 to a 4.22 in his last three starts.


SD Saturday starter (Unannounced)   5/22 @ SEA   5/27 @ MIL   6/1 @ CHC

*Avoids HOU 5/28-30

The Astros have the best wRC+ in baseball, and this San Diego starter won’t have to worry about it next weekend. They will face Seattle and Milwaukee before the Padres take on Houston; the Mariners were just no-hit for the second time this season and the Brewers rank near the bottom of the league in both wRC+ and wOBA. The Padres have announced Chris Paddack as their starter tonight, while Yu Darvish will start on Sunday.


Any pitcher for Minnesota until 6/8  

3 @ CLE, 3 vs. BAL, 3 vs. KC, 3 @ BAL, 4 @ KC

The Twins’ future opponents, in order, by wRC+: 25th, 22nd, 23rd, 22nd, 23rd. The Yankees and Astros will loom after that, but now is a desirable time for anyone pitching for Minnesota. This could also be the time where Minnesota leaps out of the AL Central cellar as their pitching looks to turn around the ninth-worst xFIP.


Bad Schedules


Charlie Morton (ATL)   5/25 @ BOS   5/30 @ NYM   6/4 vs. LAD

*Avoids PIT 5/21-23, WAS 5/31-6/3

Charlie Morton really drew the short straw in his late May/early April schedule, pitching against two top-five wRC+’s instead of two below-average teams (the Pirates and Nationals). The Red Sox and Dodgers will bookend his start against the Mets (ranking 20th in wRC+), so at least Morton will have some sense of a balanced schedule in his second projected start.


John Means (BAL)   5/24 @ MIN   5/29 @ CHW

John Means has flipped from the ‘good’ schedule to the ‘bad’ one after facing the Mets and Mariners in early May. A gauntlet of AL Central hitting awaits him; the Twins have MLB’s ninth-best wRC+ while the White Sox have the second. Means’ schedule will take a sharp turn into June when he faces Cleveland (25th), but for now he will work to turn things around after his last start against Tampa Bay (6 1/3 IP, 4 ER).


Sean Manaea (OAK)   5/23 @ LAA   5/28 vs. LAA

The Angels’ bats have cooled off a little since the early weeks of the season and the further loss of Mike Trout (calf) will make their lineup a little easier. They still rank 10th in wRC+, however, and Sean Manaea will work through them in his next two starts. The Mariners and the 26th-ranked wRC+ await him when the calendar turns to June.


Logan Webb (SF)   5/22 vs. LAD   5/27 @ LAD   6/1 vs. LAA

Logan Webb was on the ‘bad schedule’ list last week before taking on the Reds in his last start, but his schedule wasn’t as tough before that with the Rangers and Rockies. Webb has allowed one earned run in his last 12 innings, and will carry that momentum as the Giants seek to keep their threat alive in the NL West. The Dodgers and Angels have the 4th and 11th-best wOBA.


Mike Foltynewicz (TEX)   5/23 vs. HOU   5/26 @ LAA   6/1 @ COL

The only relief for Mike Foltynewicz on the horizon could be a start with the Rockies to open June; even that outing will come at Coors Field, however. He has made nine starts on the year for Texas and continues his tough stretch having just faced the Astros and Yankees. His last start against Houston was a five-inning outing where he allowed three earned runs. Houston has the best wOBA and wRC+ in baseball.


Zack Greinke (HOU)   5/25 vs. LAD   5/30 vs. SD   6/4 @ TOR

*Avoids TEX 5/21-23

Zack Greinke will start two days after Foltynewicz and will thereby avoid Houston’s series with Texas. He will instead welcome the two NL West favorites in his next two starts, only to take on the Blue Jays in Florida after that—while Toronto currently holds the sixth-best wRC+. Greinke last pitched against Oakland on Wednesday (11th in wRC+) and threw eight innings of one-run ball.


Sam Hentges (CLE)  5/23 vs. MIN   5/28 vs. TOR   6/2 vs. CHW

*Avoids DET 5/24-27

Sam Hentges has surpassed the three-inning mark just two times in six outings this year, but he will have the ball on Sunday at home against the Twins. Don’t let Minnesota’s record fool you; this is a team that ranks ninth in wRC+, so their woes haven’t been as much on hitting as it has pitching. Hentges could stay on a routine starter schedule as Cleveland doesn’t have an off day until June 3; they also have a doubleheader scheduled for May 31.


Adrian Houser (MIL)   5/21 @ CIN   5/26 vs. SD

Despite Cincinnati’s modest record (19-23), they rank seventh in wRC+ (105). Adrian Houser will at least get them during a spell where their wRC+ has been below 100 in the past week (16th). He will then take on the Padres near the end of May and it is presumable that San Diego will have Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wil Myers at full strength again by that time.


LAA Saturday starter (Unannounced)   5/22 vs. OAK   5/27 @ OAK

*This could likely be Dylan Bundy

The Angels have yet to announce any starter beyond tonight’s series opener with Oakland, while the A’s are just a half-game out of first place in their division. The Angels will have to work through that Oakland lineup in a home series this weekend and a road series next weekend.


Soon to be a Great Schedule


Luke Weaver (ARI)   5/21 @ COL   5/26 vs. SF   5/31 vs. NYM

*This schedule is already decent, but Coors

On the heels of consecutive shutout starts (10 1/3 IP), Luke Weaver will make his next start in the thin air of Denver, It will come against a Rockies squad that ranks 29th in wRC+, however, but his next start will come against a tough-hitting San Francisco lineup (8th). He will then take on the Mets at home, and their wRC+ has ranked 26th over the past week. Their season figure ranks far worse than their 2020 figure (2nd), and it could be a matter of time until they return to offensive prominence (which would suggest Weaver is on a ‘bad schedule’ instead). Weaver has made one start at Coors Field this year (4/6), allowing three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings.


Soon to be a Bad Schedule


Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU)   5/21 @ TEX   5/26 vs. LAD   5/21 vs. BOS 

Texas has been no-hit twice this year, while the Dodgers and Red Sox have been offensive frontrunners in pretty much every category. Lance McCullers Jr. shut out the Rangers in his last start (6 IP), but has not faced the Dodgers or Red Sox in 2021. There might be some added intensity between the Astros and Dodgers too, so that incoming set could be a little more strenuous than your average May series.


Kwang Hyun Kim (STL)   5/23 vs. CHC   5/28 @ ARI   6/2 @ LAD

*Avoids CHW 5/24-26

Kwang Hyun Kim has allowed a single earned run in his last five starts. He will look ahead to the Cubs and the 11th-ranked wRC+, followed by the 21st-ranked Diamondbacks and the third-ranked Dodgers. The rigor of this schedule is filled with ups and downs; it will appear to continue as the Cardinals will open June with the Dodgers, Reds, Indians, Cubs, Marlins and Braves.


Mike Minor (KC)   5/21 vs. DET   5/26 @ TB

The Tigers may have jumped the Twins for fourth in the AL Central, but their wRC+ still ranks 29th. Mike Minor will have a home start against Detroit tonight but will follow it up with the Rays, who have held MLB’s best wRC+ in the past seven days. Minor did just fine in his last start against the White Sox, however, tossing seven innings and allowing a single run. He will find himself on the easy schedule again on May 31 when he takes on the Pirates.


Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire. Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram).

Justin Wick

Justin Wick is the communications supervisor for MLB's Arizona Fall League. He pitched collegiately at Creighton University (B.A. Journalism) and South Mountain Community College, and is a three-year veteran of the Northwoods League with the St. Cloud Rox. More of his work can be found on Purple Row covering the Colorado Rockies, and on Twitter @justwick.

One response to “SP Future Schedules – Week 8”

  1. Johnny Jerk says:

    Logan Webb, Luke Weaver??? The fuck is wrong with you?

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