What are we supposed to do with Cole Hamels next season? He’s always hanging around the Top 20 as a steady innings eater with an above-average K rate and upside to hover around a 3.00 ERA, but he’s been more inconsistent than anticipated this season, amplified by last night’s 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. That’s his eleventh start of the season with at least 4 ER, making up over 35% of his starts. His FIP/xFIP dictate a slight rebound is in order, but do I really want to throw a Top 70 pick next season at Hamels? Not really and his name value only hurts his actual value more. I’d rather chase a combination of Syndergaard/Carrasco/Matz/Stroman as drafting these players give me the opportunity to get incredible value and make a bigger impact at elevating myself in the field. If you draft Hamels, you’ll be happy just to get face value with a slight chance of getting more, and that’s not who I want fueling my engine.
Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:
Clayton Kershaw – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 13 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Is there any question that Kershaw isn’t the #1 pitcher in baseball?
Dan Haren – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. The Deuce in Chicago.
Nick Tropeano – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. There may be something in this as Tropeano now holds a solid 11.5% Swinging Strike rate for the season and had a decent history of Ks in the minors. He also holds a fantastic 2.61 FIP, though his 4.5% HR/FB rate should increase. I have a feeling he’ll be getting a sleeper tag among some people come January and I may be one of them.
Matt Wisler – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. If you’re thinking of rolling with Wisler for the future and want to ignore his 2015 history, well, then you’re none the Wisler.
Rick Porcello – 8.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Okay, so now he’s had at least 8 Ks in four of his last six starts – twice against the Rays, twice against the Yankees – and I had to make sure there wasn’t something underneath it all. Nope, nearly the same low Swinging Strike rate (near 8.5%), and he hasn’t changed his pitch mix either. What does that mean? It means I am not afraid to stutter when I say I still don’t care about poor Porcello.
Matt Moore – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Huh. I’ve always thought of Moore as a Boom/Bust guy and not this Buehrle looking thing,
Tanner Roark – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s super boring, just like that class taught by Mr. Fiendman in 7th grade. Yeah, you know the one.
Adam Conley – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I ‘m not going to ignore that Conley has a 2.75 ERA and 9.38 K/9 in his last seven starts, but it came against teams like the Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Braves, and he still held a 4.04 xFIP.
Jeff Samardzija – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Don’t care Loose Lips. You’ve already sunk mah ship.
Mike Fiers – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. The Fiers upside comes out and parties hard.
Madison Bumgarner – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s not so bad for you to change your perspective of Bumgarner, but don’t forget that his VPR was similiar to Price’s in 2014. He puts up neutral starts like these more often than you’d like for a Top 10 SP.
David Buchanan – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. I prefer Pat. Nah, James. No wait the village. Gaaaah I can’t choose!
Robbie Ray – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Our Call Boy didn’t bring that Ks that we wanted, but gave a serviceable 3.00 ERA despite a 1.50 WHIP. He’s a flyer for deeper leagues next year, and a good catch in NL-only leagues.
Vidal Nuno – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Vidal and I will never hold hands.
Tyson Ross – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. I don’t care what his FIP is, I’m not touching him next season. Even if his skins is soft…and delicate. My bad this is getting weird.
Christian Bergman – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Bergman has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.
Johnny Cueto – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. I’m super curious to know where people are placing Cueto next season. I’m thinking outside the Top 20 possibly, but if he heads to an NL Easy team or something beneficial, I can see the argument for a revitalized 2016.
Jorge Lopez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Jorge’s major league debut featured a blistering K/9, but I don’t see a fantastic career ahead for the kid. His strikeout rate was middling through the minors, and always showed a 3.00+ BB/9. Not for me.
Bartolo Colon – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. The Big Apple may not have anymore starts left for the Mets – please resign him for one more year this offseason PLEASE – and while this is pretty dang unimpressive, those 0 walks keep his WHIP from getting out of hand.
Josh Smith – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks. Smith just isn’t a guy you want around, like the flu or that dude Brian from your office. No one wants to hear about your cat Brian.
Michael Pineda – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Ouch. It was a horrific 6 ER first inning capped off by a 3 run HR, and to Pineda’s credit he settled down nicely thereafter. What I’ll tell you is that his season xFIP is 2.97 with a 8.66 K/9 and 1.20 BB/9. Now there’s something to talk about this offseason.
Daniel Norris – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. He also allowed an extra 4 unearned runs, forcing Norris out of the game super early. There’s upside here, definitely, but I’m not making the same mistake next season of trusting him before he has some polish on him.
Chris Bassitt – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. The fantasy world was intrigued when Bassitt had an impressive July and August, and this start is only the second of his 12 starts where he allowed more than 3 ER. He’ll be a decent Toby next year, which means he’s just a streamer in standard leagues.