Truth or San-Tawn-DARE

Here we are, about 25 games into the 2020 season, and Anthony Santander (pronounced san-tawn-DARE, which is definitely not how I was saying that in my head), who went 3-5 with two home runs, a double, and three RBI in yesterday’s game, is the ninth-best outfielder according to ESPN’s Player Rater. He’s currently on a 13-game hitting streak and is hitting for both power and average—not bad for a guy who was usually undrafted in standard leagues.

During this time of year, I get lots of questions about guys like Santander. While they’re hot, I’m asked who someone should cut to pick them up. When they cool down, I get asked if they should be dropped outright. I thought this might be a good time to help pull back the curtain a bit on how I analyze players like this. It’s not an exact science, but there are a few quick things I start with that might be helpful to you while you’re looking at your waiver wire and trying to make the tough calls.

The first thing I do, which will feel kind of obvious, is look at the player’s track record. The 26-year-old Santander doesn’t have a ton of at bats, but he’s now logged a convenient 162 games with 30 home runs, 92 RBI, and a .256 batting average serving primarily as the #2 or #3 hitter for the Orioles. His plate discipline isn’t bad either—the 4.5% walk rate is low, but so is the 19.8% strikeout rate. If there’s one red flag, it’s that he chases a lot of outside pitches. It’s not leading to a big strikeout rate, though, so it’s just something to note. When looking at these numbers, I’m mostly trying to see if there’s something that really pops out as different. Is someone swinging more? Are they walking more? Have they changed lineup spots? These things provide clues as to whether there are any controllable or predictable variables that we can use to help forecast whether the performance is sustainable. Statcast, if you’re into it, can also help this by checking xBA and xSLG against the players actual numbers. In Santander’s case, one thing I noticed was a spike in first pitch swings. More on that later.

Note that I didn’t reference BABIP—that was on purpose. The difference between xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA and the player’s actual stats is a MUCH better tool than BABIP, since BABIP doesn’t factor in anything related to how well the balls are being hit. Low and high BABIPs don’t necessarily signal anything, but wide discrepancies between actual and expected stats do.

The second thing I do, if its a younger player, is look at minor league scouting and stats. Santander, for example, was graded reasonably well on his hit tool and power, which is great because it matches what we’re seeing in the majors. While these tools weren’t necessarily considered elite, 60-grade power and a 50-grade hit tool definitely checks out. It’s also worth noting that he graded very poorly in speed, so the lack of stolen bases is likely to stick around.

Finally, I look at how a player is doing against pitch types. Statcast has nice graphs for this, though most stat sites now feature some sort of breakdown on this. For Santander, I can see that he’s performing much better against fastballs—and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s driven by the first-pitch swing rate (since many pitchers still throw first pitch fastballs in the zone). I also see that, like most players, he performs a bit worse against breaking balls. You can generally assume that players who are hot will start seeing more of their “weakness”, so it wouldn’t be a shock if his strikeout rate jumped up a bit as the season went on as they throw him more breaking balls and fewer first pitch fastballs.

So what do I see in Santander? I see a 25-30 home run hitter, based on the hit and power tools and 162 game sample who can offer some decent counting stats (though the rest of the Orioles lineup could hold him back if they cool off), but until I see him go through that adjustment when pitchers start throwing fewer fastballs, it’s hard to saw whether he’ll hit .280 or .260.

Easy, right? How does anyone ever get it wrong?! Kidding, of course—the only reason this worked at all was because Santander actually had things that looked different. I tried this same exact thing with Robbie Grossman, another hot hitter, and got absolutely no where.

But anyway, that’s it—that’s the very high-level look behind the curtain as to how I look at hitters on a hot streak. The more you do this exercise and learn about trends and correlations, the more confident you’ll be in your predictions. I can’t promise they’ll be right, and there’s no real way to ever guarantee success, but this simple process helped me become better at managing the waiver wire, which is one of the most important skills in fantasy.

Tim Anderson (SS, Chicago White Sox)—4-5, HR, 2B, 3 R, 3 RBI. The Tigers are getting really sick of this guy. In his last 75 trips to the plate against Detroit pitchers (16 games), he’s slashing .449/.493/.797 with five steals, an 8% walk rate, and a 13.3% walk rate. Heck, that was his second four-hit game against the Tigers this season, and he has only faced them four times.

Nick Ahmed (SS, Arizona Diamondbacks)—3-4, HR, 2B, R, 5 RBI. Ahmed is hitting .517 with 12 RBI over his last eight games, during which time the Diamondbacks as a team have a .906 OPS. The team context is important, as their success over their last eight games is why Ahmed has been able to drive in all of those runs. However, because shortstop is so deep, and because Ahmed has limited power and speed upside and often bats ninth, he’s probably more of a bench bat outside of NL-only or other very deep formats.

Kole Calhoun (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)—2-4, HR, 2B, 2 R, RBI. Just like Ahmed, Calhoun’s production is almost entirely within the last eight games. We’ve seen Calhoun get hot like this before, and it’s certainly fun to see a leadoff hitter with four home runs, nine runs scored, and 10 RBI in an eight game stretch, but unfortunately, we’ve also seen the bottom fall out quickly and without warning. You’re free to stream him in any format, but be ready to drop him once he starts cooling off.

Carlos Santana (1B, Cleveland Indians)—2-5, HR, R, 5 RBI. His 27.3% walk rate is absurd, especially next to his 17.2% strikeout rate. He is utterly refusing to swing at anything outside the zone, and is also swinging at fewer pitches in the zone. That’s great for his OBP, but not so much for his production. Because he’s putting so few balls in play, we don’t have much of a sample to go on as far as quality of contact goes, but in shallow batting average leagues with no corner infield spot, I understand if you want to move on to a guy like Asdrubal Cabrera in the short term. Just don’t do anything TOO rash.

Gary Sanchez (C, New York Yankees)—1-3, HR, R, RBI, BB. This was his fourth home run in six games, which reinforces the notion that he’s the elite power threat at the catcher position when healthy. He’s still striking out a ton, though, and has yet to have a multi-hit game this season. The silver lining, other than the power surge, is the bump up in the batting order from seventh or eighth to fifth. I know I’ve defended dropping him before, and I still stand by it to some extent (these hot streaks also come with horrendous cold streaks). I’m just not a big fan of Sanchez as my fantasy catcher based on the draft capital you have to spend to acquire him.

Andrew McCutchen (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)—2-5, R, RBI, SB. He’s looking like he’s starting to heat up, with at least one run and one RBI in each of his last three games. The low walk rate is a bit concerning I suppose, but his strikeout rate still looks fine. He’s only had 63 plate appearances so far this season, so he’s probably just a good week or two away from fixing his rather poor batting line thus far.

Luis Arraez (2B/OF, Minnesota Twins)—1-3, 2B, R, BB. He appears to be totally over that slump from the beginning of the month, logging a hit in eight of his last nine. Unfortunately, though, he left this game after tweaking his knee and his playing time is up in the air. I loved Arraez coming into the year and knew there wouldn’t be a ton of counting stats, but he’s shown even less power than he did last season. I think he belongs on the wire in most 10- and 12-teamers unless you have an MI slot to fill and have a need for ratios. If he hits the IL, I’d probably drop him entirely.

Max Kepler (OF, Minnesota Twins)—0-3, 2 BB, 2 SB. This is the second time this season that Kepler has logged zero hits but still put up a decent stat line. In fact, all three of his steals have come after a walk, and in both games where he’s stolen a base, he’s been hitless. This kind of weirdness just makes me love him more, and while the batting average won’t ever be that useful, he’s still got great power and should have a decent OBP.

Magneuris Sierra (OF, Miami Marlins)—2-4, RBI, SB. In 26 major league appearances since the start of 2019, Sierra has swiped seven bases while hitting .344 and showing a solid approach at the plate. While he has very little pop in his bat, he does have 70-grade speed, and the Marlins are certainly not shy about letting players run. Deep league players with a need for speed could do a lot worse than Sierra, who could definitely steal 5-7 more bases on the season, if not more.

Bryce Harper (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)—2-5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, SB. He’s walking more than he strikes out, he’s hitting home runs, and he’s stealing bases. Harper also has six multi-hit games in his last eight starts. Just in case anyone forgot, the 27-year old is one of baseball’s top hitters.

Austin Barnes (C, Los Angeles Dodgers)—2-2, 2 R, BB, SB. He extended his hitting streak to seven games and should continue to draw the majority of starts behind home plate for the Dodgers (though rookie Keibert Ruiz should snag a few starts here and there). Barnes is a career .233 hitter with very limited power, so he’s not much more than a weak streamer in single-catcher leagues. At his best, he can chip in a handful of steals and take plenty of walks, but we don’t get him at his best all that often.

Cedric Mullins (OF, Baltimore Orioles)—2-6, SB. There was a lot of excitement about Mullins back in 2018 when he first debuted, and it’s been really rough ever since. His .198/.279/.269 line in 80 career games is hard to look at, so I’m just glad to see him string a few decent games together. He’s getting some regular time in center field for the O’s, and while i can’t recommend you add him in any format, deep league players could consider putting him on their watch list just in case he starts figuring out how to get on base enough to steal some more bases. He’s not as fast as a guy like Sierra, though there was once the belief that he’d also have a decent bat.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, New York Mets)—3-5, HR, 3B, R, 2 RBI. I’m loving the improved strikeout rate from Nimmo, which should help him hold on to the leadoff spot for the Mets. I could see him being a 20-25 home run hitter with between six and eight steals in a full season along with a bunch of runs scored and a .380+ OBP.

 

Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire