It’s time to worry about Hyun-Jin Ryu after last night’s 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks implosion against the Diamondbacks. While we knew he wasn’t destined to have a 1.50 ERA for the year – it’s suddenly 2.35 now – to get crushed for 18 ER across three starts wasn’t on the menu, either. This is going to be a quick lead today as the decision is pretty easy for you. Start Ryu if you own him. I don’t think he’s going to get a lot of starts moving forward, though, as this is a clear sign of Ryu’s stamina running low – it’s 157.1 frames now after failing to toss that many since 2013 – and the Dodgers need him ready for the playoffs. Expect some Dodgeritis to hit in September, and let’s cross our fingers we get two more from him.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Mike Clevinger – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces Gonna Ace. Clevinger cruised to another Gallows Pole with 23 whiffs and did exactly as he should against the Tigers lineup. Can you name three Detroit batters who started this game? I’m not sure I can, and I watched it.
Robert Dugger – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. I’m impressed that Dugger was able to pump two-seamers arm-side consistently to both lefties and righties to return a ton of strikes and outs, even from pitches off the edge. His curveball and slider looked solid as well, and he earned this one. Now with the Pirates next, I’d consider him as a streaming pick, but I’m not jumping over things to get it. A deep consideration.
Andrew Kittredge – 1.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. This was followed by just 2.1 frames of Trevor Richards, and that’s all kinds of annoying. I understand why the False Starter movement exists, it’s just such a pain to deal with. I hate it.
Jon Lester – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Phew. It was a 6 ER clunker last time against the Nats, but this was your toughest matchup left of the year against the Mets, and you did good enough. Now with the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, and Cardinals ahead, Toby should be good enough through it all to keep him rostered.
Lance Lynn – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Aces Gonna Ace. It’s not the overwhelming game that we’ve been accustomed to, but we’ll take this decent start in the end. The Yanks will be tougher than the Mariners here, but I think you have to start Lynn blindly the rest of the way.
Daniel Norris – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. The Tigers are limiting Norris to about three frames per game, which completely kills his value. Even worse news is that Drew VerHagen appeared out of nowhere to follow, so anyone that was curious about taking a chance on him today were blindsided. NOT COOL. 4.0 frames of 1 ER and 2 Ks against the Indians ain’t too bad, though, for those wondering.
Chris Paddack – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Great stuff, Paddack. He’s allowed 19 ER across his previous four starts, but those include 12 ER against the Dodgers and Red Sox. Here we had the Giants, and he went 31/92 CSW as his fastball dominated. See? No problem. It’s not expected for Paddack to survive all his final five starts, but let’s play this week to week. Right now, he has the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, and that works for us.
Chris Bassitt – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Come on Bassitt, you had a nice matchup against the Royals and you serve us a HAISTFMFWT?! Just one whiff on 62 pitches as he was pulled during trouble in the fifth. Keep in mind, Bassitt is expecting a child soon, which means he may get skipped over for his next start. Plan accordingly.
Jose Berrios – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. It’s a VPQS, and that’s not what you want from your SP2 … but eight strikeouts is cool. 26/101 CSW is blegh as well, and I’m a little sad he didn’t do more against the ChiSox. That 3.57 ERA is inching closer to the 3.80 range we’ve seen the past two years, with his 1.22 WHIP right in line. He is who we thought he was. OKfine, a little better as ERAs as a whole have risen.
Felix Hernandez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I didn’t like the slate, and looking around, it seems putting faith in Dugger or T-Ells would have been the only other options. Streaming Record: 88-56. We were close, Felix. We could have had it all.
Merrill Kelly – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s wild to see Kelly earn exactly four or five strikeouts in each of his past seven starts. At least he’s consistent … ly bad and you know to stay away?
Trevor Williams – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. That’s two straight solid outings from T-Ells (formerly T-Dub) as he demands his old nickname. I’m impressed he was able to do this one inside of Coors, and now he gets the Marlins and Giants ahead. I’d consider a pickup here.
Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. We’ve been waiting for Wood to take a firm step forward, and this start may be it, with his first game above 6 Ks and second with at least six frames for the PQS. 37/103 CSW is all kinds of impressive – Marlins or not – as his fastball was too much for the Fish to handle at 28/69 CSW. I wanted to see a little more from his changeup and curveball to really buy into sustained success, but because he’s a Toby and gets a schedule of middling starts moving forward (PHI, ARI, @ARI, @NYM, MIL), this may be worth it as a fringe starter.
Jacob deGrom – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces Gonna Ace, even with 4 ER. That WHIP and 7 Ks help, you know. But seriously deGrom, with Ryu falling a part and possibly missing more starts, another Cy Young looks yours to lose. Just don’t mess this up in September.
Zack Greinke – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. It’s the first proper ER clunker from Greinke, though he has returned two starts combining for three strikeouts along the way. Two HRs soured this one as he ran into trouble in the sixth and was pulled to give us a Philly. Womp womp, he’s obviously a must-start the rest of the way.
Dereck Rodriguez – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. There’s a reason he’s nicknamed D-Rop. It’s not because of his sick beats. They are so sick though. Yes, let’s say sick again. Sick. Just like how I feel when I see D-Rop rostered on a team.
Chi Chi Gonzalez – 0.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Chi-chi-chi-see-ya!
Glenn Sparkman – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. That was one really good start that you had that one day. Don’t forget that day, Glenn. It will never die.
Dylan Cease – 2.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. On one hand, you weren’t going to start Cease against the Twins anyway. On the other, this is hilariously bad as his fastball command was not what you want, with nothing in his repertoire to turn to when batters just sat heaters. Sliders were juicy as they fell in for a strike and it’s hard to feel confident moving forward. Now it’s Cleveland so at least that’s an easy rejection.
Today’s Streamer
For those unaware, I’m forced to make my streamer picks under the condition of sub-20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.
Kolby Allard vs. Seattle Mariners – He did well going fastball/cutter last time out, and it could carry over here.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Joe Ross vs. Miami Marlins – Ross has the stuff to take advantage of this great matchup. Framber Valdez vs. Toronto Blue Jays – The Nats are bumping Ross because reasons, so I’ll go with Framber getting the start against the Jays. Logan Webb against the Padres could also be considered as well as Brock Burke against the Mariners.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Eric Lauer vs. San Francisco Giants – Not much to choose from here, I’ll hope that Lauer can pull himself together for a date inside Oracle Park.
Game of the Day
Zack Wheeler vs. Aaron Nola – Let’s see if Wheeler can get back on track for our playoffs + Nola continue his three-month run.
(Photo by Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire)
Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Nick Castellanos?
Best streamer for the weekend? Need the W and decent ratios.
Valdez @ Tor
Matz @ Phil
Burke vs Sea
Webb vs SD
D. Duffy vs Balt
Thank you
Valdez or Matz – I think you ranked them in the right order You know what you are getting into though.
It would be really tough to make a strong argument for DeGrom over Scherzer in 2018 – nothing but HR aversion (and its effects on ERA) was better which has proven to be an unsustainable skill for JD. People like to pretend that we do better analysis these days, but we don’t. We still award the highest honors to people who get lucky – nothing has really changed. Max was better at striking guys out, they allowed the same amount of hits and the walks were basically a wash… the k rate gap was significant enough for me to side with Max. I am not sure what the argument for DeGrom would hinge on – probably WAR, but at that point we should wonder how the unsustainable skills are translating into WAR as none of the underlying skills or performance back up a gap.
Scherzer is out-pitching DeGrom again this year. He even leads in WAR with the time he has missed – WAR clearly is pretty bad for pitchers but its fun to point at. Other categories he leads in are K rate, BB rate and HR/9 (ha). He also leads in all of the ERA estimators. The two categories he doesn’t lead in are BABIP and IP. Are we going to seriously just decide to job Mad max again? IMO he was robbed last year and it he should win if it is anywhere near close just to make it right. It is particularly egregious when you consider that Max is breaking down and probably doesn’t have many more years at the top left. If he got the award last year and this year he would be regarded as one of the all-time greats, but as you are seeing he isn’t even the front-runner in a race that he leads and you can pick the starting point as far back as you like.
I am of the mindset that we should just give it to Max if not Ryu. When Max and JD were both healthy (majority of the season), Scherzer pitched DeGrom under the table. The stretch run is not going to be kind to Mad Max in all likelihood as being 35 and having a month long DL stint is not a good start but lets not mistake a bad September for what happened when the games actually mattered. It is fairly likely that DeGrom is going to close the gap because he pitches more meaningless innings while Max is recovering from a month on the shelf and has some playoffs to worry about. In football we have awarded things to people that missed big chunks – its smart but it means that you can’t use WAR as that is fueled by innings. Its cute to give DeGrom awards, but on the other hand one of the most unappreciated future HOF players is getting screwed. You could argue that Scherzer is having the best season of his career albeit the IP are down but K-BB rate is at its career high (the most sustainable skill) – not long ago we used that as an important metric but that seems to have gone where WHIP went, which is the island of toys that make the rest of the toys looks bad.
Drop Cease for Gonsolin?
Definitely.
Hey, Nick, you starting Wheeler (at Phi)? Gallen v Dodgers?
Pretty blegh to both. If you can’t risk the floor, I’d bench both. If you need the upside, go with both.
Nick, would you rather T-ells VS Mia or Bundy at KC?
T-ells :)