Playoff Preview: Twins vs. Yankees

Five of the franchise’s past six postseason appearances have ended by the hands of the Yankees. “I don’t care, to be honest,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “Nothing that’s happened in the past affects our team in any way. And I mean that.” And he couldn’t be more right. It matters not what Justin Morneau or Joe Mauer were or were not able to accomplish 10 years ago against a Yankees roster whose lone holdover from then is Brett Gardner. It’s little more than trivia.

On Friday, these two teams will meet at Yankee Stadium to commence a best-of-five series whose winner will claim the right to advance to the ALCS.

 

The Offenses at a Glance

 

HR R RBI SB K% OBP AVG wOBA wRC+ Run Diff
MIN 307 (1st) 939 (2nd) 906 (1st) 28 (30th) 20.9% (27th) .338 (6th) .270 (2nd) .347 (2nd) 116 (3rd) +185 (4th)
NYY 306 (2nd) 943 (1st) 904 (2nd) 55 (24th) 23% (19th) .339 (4th) .267 (4th) .346 (3rd) 117 (2nd) +204 (3rd)

 

2019 was undoubtedly the year of the home run. And both of these offenses embraced that to the fullest with the Twins (101-61) just barely eeking out the MLB lead in home runs at 307 while the Yankees (103-59) were just behind at 306. Shattered was the single-season team record of 267 previously held by … the 2018 New York Yankees. The Astros were third in home runs at 288.

Both teams were back-to-back in wOBA, OBP, and wRC+. This is nothing new. If you’ve been following along this year, you knew that both of these offenses were among this year’s elite. But it’s pretty wild to see just how close these teams measured up in both rate and counting stats. Even in run differential, both teams were back-to-back, with the Yankees having the edge there at +204 to the Twins’ +185.

These teams played each other six times this year, with the Yankees earning the 4-2 advantage. And in those six games, 81 runs were scored. There may be some runs scored in this series.

 

Twins Lineup

 

PA K% AVG OBP wOBA wRC+
Max Kepler OF 596 16.6% .252 .336 .355 121
Jorge Polanco SS 704 16.5% .295 .356 .352 120
Nelson Cruz DH 521 25.1% .311 .392 .417 163
Eddie Rosario OF 590 14.6% .276 .300 .329 103
Mitch Garver C 359 24.2% .273 .365 .404 155
Miguel Sano 3B 439 36.2% .247 .346 .378 137
Marwin Gonzalez OF/1B 463 21.2% .264 .322 .313 93
Luis Arraez 2B 366 7.9% .334 .399 .360 125
C.J. Cron 1B 499 21.4% .253 .311 .325 101
BENCH
Jonathan Schoop 2B 464 25% .256 .304 .324 100
Jake Cave OF 228 31.1% .258 .351 .343 113
Jason Castro C 275 32% .232 .332 .328 103
Ehire Adrianza IF 236 16.9% .272 .349 .326 102

 

Note this article was written prior to both teams having released their official rosters (10:00 a.m. on Friday), so this is simply my guess as to what they will look like.

Max Kepler missed time late in the season with a left shoulder strain. But all indications are that he should be ready to resume his role as the team’s leadoff man against right-handed pitchers. Kepler enjoyed a power surge in 2019, mashing a career-best 36 home runs, his previous high being a much more modest total of 20 in 2018. Kepler may have been one of the more under-the-radar breakouts of 2019 as he was one of just six hitters to hit 36 or more home runs while also having a strikeout rate below 20%. Those other hitters? Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, and Josh Bell. 

Jorge Polanco had a breakout year in 2019 as he managed to increase his walk rate to 8.5% and trim his strikeout rate to 16.5% all while tallying a career-best 22 home runs. His .356 OBP and .295 batting average (28th among qualifiers) provided the Twins with a quintessential 2-hole hitter.

Nelson Cruz simply scoffed at the mere notion of Father Time slowing down his boomstick as he paced this Twins offense in almost every meaningful offensive category. His absurd 19.9% barrel rate and .420 xwOBA were both good for top 1% marks in the league. Cruz is very clearly the heart of this lineup, and he will almost certainly be pitched to deliberately throughout the series.

Second in the league in home runs among catchers (minimum 350 plate appearances) was none other than Mitch Garver. First in the league? That would be his counterpart in this series, Gary Sanchez, with 34. Garver’s .404 wOBA easily paced his peers. Second among catchers was the Cubs’ Willson Contreras at a distant .368. Garver gives the Twins one of the very few true impact bats at the position. Garver has also hit leadoff for the Twins when they are facing lefties. So that could be where we see him in Game 1 against James Paxton.

We know that Miguel Sano has the power to flip a game with one swing, but he also has the type of profile (36.2% strikeout rate) that could be doubly exposed by the upper-tier pitching of the postseason.

Luis Arraez was the antithesis of 2019 baseball. His 7.9% strikeout rate would have easily paced the league if he qualified (Hanser Alberto led with 9.1%). Arraez’s .334 batting average would have been good for second behind Tim Anderson (.335) if he qualified. The man can certainly put the bat on the ball like very few others. Arraez suffered an ankle sprain in the last game of the season and is questionable. If he were forced to miss the series, Jonathan Schoop would likely fill the void.

After last year’s 30-home run breakout campaign with the Rays, C.J. Cron struggled a bit this year, though coincidentally he did manage to match last year’s .253 average. It’s worth mentioning though that he did battle through a thumb injury during the second half, so that certainly could have held him down some. He’s an aggressive but certainly dangerous hitter at the bottom of the order.

 

Yankees Lineup

 

PA K% AVG OBP wOBA wRC+
D.J. LeMahieu 1B/3B 655 13.7% .327 .375 .375 136
Aaron Judge OF 447 31.5% .272 .381 .382 141
Gleyber Torres 2B 604 21.4% .278 .337 .358 125
Giancarlo Stanton OF 72 33.3% .288 .403 .379 139
Edwin Encarnacion DH 486 21.2% .244 .344 .362 129
Gary Sanchez C 446 28% .232 .316 .346 116
Brett Gardner OF 550 19.6% .251 .325 .344 115
Gio Urshela 3B 476 18.3% .314 .355 .369 132
Didi Gregorius SS 344 15.4% .238 .276 .297 84
BENCH
Luke Voit 1B 510 27.8% .263 .378 .360 126
Cameron Maybin OF 269 26.8% .285 .364 .362 128
Austin Romine C 240 20.8% .281 .310 .315 95
Tyler Wade SS 108 25.9% .245 .330 .303 88

 

The 2019 New York Yankees managed to hit 306 home runs despite missing Giancarlo Stanton for virtually the entire season in addition to extended absences from Aaron Judge, Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Hicks, and Luke Voit. We can only dream of what this team could have done had it not faced a cavalcade of injuries. Like the Twins, who are down Bryon Buxton, the Yankees will also be without their starting center fielder in Hicks, who dealt with a back injury early in the season before an elbow injury eventually put him on the shelf for good.

In an offseason that featured the likes of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, it may just have been D.J. LeMahieu who proved to be the best acquisition. His stellar season rendered the loss of last year’s AL Rookie fo the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar a mere afterthought as LeMahieu paced this offense in runs, RBI, and batting average, hitting a lusty .327 (fourth among qualifiers). His 26 home runs and 102 RBI were both career highs. LeMahieu’s 13.7% strikeout rate provides this team with some much-needed balance as the middle of this order features several hitters who strike out north of 25% in Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez.

Yes, Judge may strikeout a bunch. But when he makes contact, the earth can only shudder as his 95.9 average exit velocity led the league. Second? Well, that would be the Twins’ Sano at 94.4. This is going to be a fun series.

Gleyber Torres paced the Yankees in home runs with 38, cementing his status as one of the game’s rising stars.

Something to keep an eye on: How does the middle of the order look? Both Stanton and Sanchez were only able to log a limited amount of at-bats following extended absences. And Encarnacion hasn’t had an at-bat since Sept. 12. How do they respond now being thrown into the frying pan that is postseason play?

The last remaining holdover from the Yankees’ last World Series way, way back in 2009, Brett Gardner was supposed to be an afterthought on this team, but injuries to Stanton, Hicks, and Mike Tauchman afforded him ample opportunity. He responded with a flourish, belting 10 home runs in the month of September. He’ll feature prominently here in what could be his final hurrah as a Yankee.

One of the more interesting dilemmas will be what do the Yankees do with Voit? After returning from a sports hernia injury in late August, he’s fallen into a tailspin, hitting .194 with a .299 wOBA and 85 wRC+ in the month of September. That’s not what you want heading into the playoffs. Voit has, however, had a very good season overall as his OBP of .378 is third on the team while his wOBA of .360 ranks fourth on the team (minimum 350 plate appearances). While it seems unlikely that he’ll cede a spot on the roster to Mike Ford (.372 wOBA, 134 wRC+ in 163 plate appearances), Voit looks to be legitimately on the roster bubble, and if he is included, he’ll be a bench bat at least in the early going.

And that would be thanks to Gio Urshela‘s breakout campaign, which saw him hit a career-best 21 home runs, his previous best being six with the Indians as a part-time player back in 2015. Now, to be clear, Urshela himself as had an awful September, hitting just .207 with a .269 wOBA. But given his defensive ability at third, its an easier decision to make as it would simply slide LeMahieu over to first.

While much has been made of Voit’s recent struggles, Didi Gregorius has had the far worse season since returning from Tommy John surgery in June. His .297 wOBA, .276 OBP, and .236 average are easily the worst marks of his Yankee tenure. The Yankees prefer his defense at short, but shifting Torres there and nixing Gregorius from the lineup could be a possible outcome if his struggles continue.

Outside of LeMahieu and Judge at the top, it’s anyone’s guess how exactly this Yankee lineup will look. They’ve run out seemingly endless iterations of it this year, mostly on account of injuries, so it will be very interesting to see how Yankees manager Aaron Boone ultimately decides to deploy his hitters for this series.

 

The Bullpens

 

Twins IP K% ERA WHIP SIERA Yankees IP K% ERA WHIP SIERA
Taylor Rogers 69 32.4% 2.61 1.00 2.63 Aroldis Chapman 57 36.2% 2.21 1.11 3.10
Trevor May 64.1 29.7% 2.94 1.07 3.68 Chad Green 69 33.2% 4.17 1.23 3.04
Sergio Romo 60.1 24.1% 3.43 1.11 3.98 Adam Ottavino 66.1 31.1% 1.90 1.31 4.09
Tyler Duffey 57.2 34.5% 2.50 1.01 2.74 Tommy Kahnle 61.1 35.5% 3.67 1.06 2.79
Zack Littell 37 21.9% 2.68 1.16 4.06 Zach Britton 61.1 21.6% 1.91 1.14 3.81
Brusdar Graterol 9.2 25% 4.66 1.24 3.34 Jonathan Loaisiga 31.2 26.6% 4.55 1.48 4.34
Martin Perez 165.1 18.3% 5.12 1.52 5.01 J.A. Happ 177.2 20.7% 4.91 1.30 4.72
Cody Stashak 25 24% 3.24 1.20 3.85 Luis Cessa 81 21.9% 4.11 1.31 4.30
Devin Smeltzer 49 18.8% 3.86 1.27 4.69 Stephen Tarpley 24.2 28.3% 6.93 1.99 4.17

 

The Yankees will have available at their discretion four relievers with strikeout rates over 30% in Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle. The loss of Dellin Betances to an Achilles injury is a big one though, and it shouldn’t be overlooked as his 40.3% strikeout rate from 2017-18 is third among relievers (minimum 50 innings pitched) behind only Craig Kimbrel and Josh Hader.

Let’s take a moment to appreciate Kahnle’s changeup. Against lefty hitters this year, it’s returned a 50.3% whiff rate, .141 batting average, and .185 wOBA.

For the fourth straight year, Chapman, who went 37 for 42 in save opportunities, has upped the usage of his slider at the expense of his fastball. This year, he threw the slider 31.1% of the time, just about double the amount we saw from him in 2016 (15.7%). It’s hard to argue with the results though as the slider has returned a 43.2% whiff rate and .159 batting average against this year.

Jonathan Loaisiga has shown some terrific swing-and-miss stuff in his short stint in the majors. Both his changeup and curveball have returned whiff rates over 40%. He’s not a lock to make the roster by any means, but he’s an arm who could give the Yankees some length out of the bullpen should a starter get knocked off early or a game goes deep into extras.

The Twins bullpen may have been one of the more underrated units of the year as their relievers combined for a 3.92 FIP, which led all teams. (The Yankees were 9th at 4.15.) And it starts at the top with Taylor Rogers, who went 30 for 36 in save opportunities and was nothing short of a stalwart for this Twins team. Of his 30 saves, 12 were four outs or longer.

Tyler Duffey has been excellent this year as his 34.5% strikeout rate ranks 17th among relievers (minimum 50 innings pitched).

Sergio Romo’s slider has returned a 38% whiff rate and .236 wOBA against opposing right-handed hitters. He’ll certainly be called upon to get some tough righty hitters out in this series.

Brusdar Graterol spent most of the year in Double-A, where he made nine starts with a 24% strikeout rate across 52.2 innings. He’s the Twins’ top pitching prospect and gives them a legit flame-thrower out of the bullpen as his sinker sits at 99 mph.

 

Schedule and Possible Starters

 

Date Away IP K% ERA WHIP SIERA Home IP K% ERA WHIP SIERA
10/4 Jose Berrios 200.1 23.2% 3.68 1.22 4.28 James Paxton 150.2 29.4% 3.82 1.28 3.93
10/5 Jake Odorizzi 159 27.1% 3.51 1.21 4.14 Masahiro Tanaka 182 19.6% 4.45 1.24 4.46
10/7 Luis Severino 12 35.4% 1.50 1.00 3.80 Randy Dobnak 28.1 19.5% 1.59 1.13 3.92
10/8* Yankees Twins
10/10* Twins Yankees

*= if necessary

 

For the Yankees, the loss of Domingo German (19.2% K-BB rate, 30.6% CSW) is huge as he led the team in wins with 18 across his 143 innings. This will put the onus on James Paxton (20.7% K-BB rate, 29.9% CSW). Big Maple has been everything Yankees GM Brian Cashman had hoped for when he traded for him last offseason as he hummed right along to the tune of 3.63 ERA and 10 wins in the second half. It’s a tough matchup though as this Twins team hit for a league-best .872 OPS against left-handed pitchers.

While some may point to his 1.50 ERA and 0.80 WHIP across 30 innings in the Postseason as a reason to give Masahiro  Tanaka (14.4% K-BB rate, 28.5% CSW) the opening start, 2019 was a legitimate down year for the righty, who saw his strikeout rate dip from 25% to just 19.6% this year, a career low. That can be attributed, in part at least, to the mysterious disappearance of his splitter, which saw its whiff rate plummet from 36.2% to just 18.4%. As a result, lefties in particular hit him hard this year, to the tune of a .349 wOBA and .285 batting average. He showed some signs of improving late in the year, but given the nebulous nature of his splitter, this version of Tanaka is a coin flip and a rather scary one at that once you consider his propensity for relinquishing the longball. He’ll start Game 2 for the Yankees.

Jose Berrios (17.1% K-BB rate, 29.8% CSW) led the charge for the Twins rotation with 200 innings and pitched well. Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi (19% K-BB rate, 28.2% CSW) was a pleasant surprise for the Twins as he led the staff with 15 wins. He’s been great against right-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .255 wOBA and .194 batting average. The Twins were judicious in their usage of Odorizzi this year, and with good reason. Through the first two times through the order, he limited opposing batters to a .269 wOBA and .220 batting average. Third time through? Those numbers jumped to .367 and .296, respectively. Expect the Twins to keep a tight leash on Odorizzi.

As the series shifts back to Minnesota for Game 3, the Twins’ loss of Michael Pineda (4.18 SIERA, 18.7% K-BB rate, 28.5% CSW) to suspension will loom large. Both Martin Perez and in particular Kyle Gibson pitched poorly down the stretch, so it would appear that they are on the outside looking in for a spot in the rotation. That leaves rookie Randy Dobnak (15.3% K-BB rate, 29.5% CSW) as an option for Game 3. His highest pitch count this year across five starts in the majors was just 78, so he’ll figure to be on a very tight leash if he gets the nod.

Leaning on Luis Severino fot October glory may be a tenuous proposition given the amount of time he missed the season, but we know the upside. It’s both real and spectacular (22.6% K-BB rate, 3.26 SIERA across 384.2 innings 2017-18). He’ll start Game 3, and it makes sense in that he’ll follow an off day, meaning the bullpen will be rested given that he’s peaked at just 80 pitches in his three starts this season. Here in Game 3 is where I think the Yankees have a clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup.

J.A. Happ could potentially start Game 4, though given the schedule of the first round, it’s not a given as Boone could opt to give the ball to Paxton on three days rest, which would leave Tanaka to start a pivotal Game 5 on full rest if need be.

 

Postseason History

 

Year Series Result
2003 ALDS Yankees 3-1
2004 ALDS Yankees 3-1
2009 ALDS Yankees 3-0
2010 ALDS Yankees 3-0
2017 Wild Card Yankees

 

Prediction

 

Some may say the Twins took advantage of a weak division, going 41-16 against the Royals, White Sox, and Tigers, but a 100-win season shouldn’t be taken for granted. In the end, you can only play the schedule that’s given you. Plus, it’s not like the Yankees didn’t roast the Orioles and Blue Jays all year long.

I think the Yankees have the better roster and a decided edge with their starting pitching, so they deserve to be the favorites in the series. But this is a really dangerous Twins team that shouldn’t be taken lightly. I’ll say the Twins push the Yankees to the brink but fall short in Game 5.

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, amateur artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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Comments


theKraken

I see this as the most interesting series of this round of the playoffs. I could see it going either way. I am looking forward to watching it. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the games are not that tight with the explosive nature of the offenses and the somewhat shaky nature of their rotations. The clear advantage is more in the weakness of the back half of the Twins rotation – they need to come out hot. The loss of Buxton is a huge one for MIN. Of all these stars on both teams, Buxton is right in that mix – but of course he is never healthy. You know, as I write this I believe in the Twins less. They are a fun team and I think I want them to be more solid than they are.

Ryan Amore

I think you nailed it with the back of the Twin Rotation being the weak spot. That’s the one area where they look to be at a decided disadvantage. The loss of Pineda is key. It would have at the very least given them a quality option to cover game 3. A lot can change between now and then of course but as it stands the Twins are going to have be creative in games 3 and 4. The Twins lineup I think is more apt for postseason play in that it is both well balanced and less prone to strikeouts. There are a lot of K’s in that Yankee lineup, especially in the middle. But do the Twins have the caliber of starting pitching to take advantage? There I’m not convinced. The Twins have the talent to win here but I think they just have much less room for error. Basically, they need to play the perfect series to pull this off. Regardless I think this sets up as a fascinating matchup.

theKraken

They got creative in game 2… and nailed the coffin shut on themselves in the process. Who would have thought that losing Pineda would have been such a big loss to a 100 win team? They should have signed Lynn to a 2 year deal a year ago lol.

theKraken

Eh, well I might as well do what I am going to do anyways lol.

The stage is set for an interesting WS. You have two teams in the NL that nobody would have picked for the WS and one will get in. In the AL you have two titans. That is cool that it will certainly be a David and Goliath WS – I imagine that is good for business. That said, losing the Braves and Rays eliminated every transient fan so its already a huge loss for MLB and the progressive baseball community which is an ever-growing portion of baseball fans. This is exactly why an organization should not hitch their wagon to a team or a player. Those teams get way too much press and now it feels like something is missing from the season although it really isn’t the case. No matter how smart you think you are, it doesn’t go as you want.. unless you just get lucky. I think the fact is that a lot of people are heartbroken and won’t be watching much more baseball, but for the rest of us I think it is pretty interesting. I will be blindly rooting for the NL whoever that is.

I think the Nats are a heavy favorite over the Cards. They have them beat in SP handily and offense by a decent margin as well. I think STL has more bullpen talent, but they are a volatile group that they don’t trust. I cringe every time I see CMart take the mound and they have not trusted their best RP all year long much as of late (Gallegos). As a human, I really like the STL staff as they are pretty old school and they have to really pitch to get outs even though I think they are not on par with WAS. WAS has three aces and STL has one. Offensively, I’ll take Soto and Rendon over Ozuna and Goldy – I think it is closer that most would but after that it gets ugly as Turner >> Wong (I am the biggest Turner truther out there but he certainly isn’t bad at offense) and the rest are just guys IMO – some above average and some below – they will likely win and lose games but you can’t predict much about what they will do as they lack consistency. If anything I would say don’t sleep on those veterans – they are not sexy but they are the ones who often show up in these situations and both have a bunch of them. Guys like Kendrick, Carpenter, Fowler, Eaton, Yadi or even Matt Adams could fit the bill of a postseason hero.

As for the AL, this is the far more interesting series as it has the bigger names. HOU has always been the team to beat and they still are. As far as the rotation goes – in a vacuum NYY doesn’t belong in the same sentence as HOU, but this isn’t a vacuum. NYY swept and HOU had to ride the bets 1-2 punch in baseball hard in a 5 game series. I imagine you see Verlander in game 2 and 6 and Cole in 3 and 7. HOU is going to get what they need out of those two even if it sits further back in the rotation than they would like. I think it is fair to say that NYY better win Game 1 and if they don’t they will be in a deep hole. Lol I just realized I forgot about Greinke who is no slouch, despite what he has done since being traded to HOU. Prior to that trade he was one of the best starters in baseball. Is this a Darvish LAD situation or is he going to rebound? I can’t imagine he doesn’t figure it out, but that is a situation that NYY needs to capitalize on. I think that matchup of Paxton v Greinke favors NYY, but not by much – Paxton has always been too volatile to be a real ace which puts him real close to current Grienke in my book. I guess the bullpen edge goes to NYY but this series should not be about bullpens…especially for HOU. If NYY is churning through the bullpen, then they are probably already in trouble as they are going head to head with3 Cy Young winners. Despite HOU’s rotation issues, I have them way ahead in that area. Offensively I will take HOU at an advantage as consistency is what wins game more often than the crooked innings. HOU is built to apply constant pressue and NYY is a lot more about long balls which doesn’t play as well against elite arms. I think Bregman and Judge are a push – Bregman has the better consistency, but I like Judge to impact a game more and he isn’t a slouch. I think Altuve and DJL are close. I’ll take Yordan over Stanton (seems crazy to say). I think Edwin and Gurriel are very different but I actually slightly prefer Yuli as he has just been locked in for months now – its close. I’ll take Gleyber over Correa but again it is close. I don’t think Correa has looked good in the playoffs so far. I think Brantley and Urshella are close. I don’t think Sanchez is of much value in a small sample as he is typically bad on a given day – many would disagree and I understand that. I certainly like Springer more than Sanchez. I think a lot of the players are similar in terms of impact, but I prefer what HOU brings by a bit. Combine that with a pitching edge and homefiled advantage and they are favorites despite the rotation issues. It would not be any kind of shock to see NYY win and I might even prefer it as it will line up better for whoever that NL team is that I will be rooting for!

I didn’t proof that or edit it so if it is a little inconsistent then you can point it out, but don’t waste too much time on it. Hopefully I gave someone something to think about…doubtful as this is almost off the front page haha.

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