PL on RotoGraphs: The Curious Case of Trevor Williams

It’s time we talked about the pitcher that just doesn’t make sense.

Trevor Williams is an anomaly. We like to focus on peripheral numbers to get a better sense of how a pitcher is performing and Williams’ under-the-hood numbers since July 2018 paint a mediocre arm:

Trevor Williams’ Last 17 Starts

 

SIERA Strikeout Rate BABIP LOB Rate HR/FB Rate
4.54 18.5% .259 89.0% 4.7%

Yet across seventeen starts since July 11th, Williams is flaunting two ridiculous numbers:

1.60 ERA & 1.08 WHIP

How.

Williams’ repertoire consists of a seemingly mediocre 91 mph fastball, a changeup that returns a 7% swinging-strike rate, and a slider with a career middling .260 BAA. These are pedestrian numbers for a three-pitch mix, yet 100+ frames have returned only 18 earned runs.

It doesn’t make a lick of sense and I love when something doesn’t make sense. It means there’s something interesting to talk about.

So let’s talk about it.

Read the rest of this article on RotoGraphs.

(Photo by Justin Berl/Icon Sportswire)

Nick Pollack

Founder of PitcherList.com. Rotographs and Washington Post contributor and has worked with CBS Sports, Grantland, and SB Nation. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum.

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Comments


Nick Gerli

A couple of points I’d add from the article I wrote on him earlier this month:
https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-trevor-williams-is-actually-good/

-Looking at Williams’ figures since July misses some things. Since mid-August he has increased his O-Swing and SwStrk pretty significantly. Check out the pre/post August 17th metrics.

-His 4SFB might not look elite, but it is by various metrics. He’s top 10 in 4SFB xwOBA going back to 2017. That’s enough data to conclude he’s doing something right with it.

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