Guerra struggled with the control of his curveball, walking more batters than he struck out. There was also a distinct decrease in O-Swing% (36.4%-24.6%) as batters were generally not fooled by this pitch.
Guerra’s primary offering was clocked at the highest average velocity since 2015 and had four-year best rates in Zone%, SwStr%, and K%. The pitch also allowed a 60 wRC+, by far the best of his career.
Guerra’s splitter works well off of his fastball, coming in eight ticks slower and featuring similar movement to the fastball, with just some extra drop at the end. The pitch has now featured a 40% K% in each of the last four years.
Guerra primarily relies on fastballs, with his four-seamer leading the way. He throws it in the zone and it produces fly balls at a 47.1% clip. It is a fairly league average four-seamer.
Guerra’s two-seamer generated a 54.1% ground-ball rate, a stark contrast to his four-seamer’s fly-ball tendencies. His two-seamer induced 11 ground-ball double plays, which is likely a reason it is his second-most thrown pitch. But the results in 2018 were generally bad otherwise, as the pitch allowed a .326 AVG and a .203 ISO, negating any benefits from keeping the ball on the ground.
Guerra gained arm-side run on his splitter in 2018, and would likely benefit from increasing its usage at the expense of his two-seamer. It generates a similar ground-ball rate, and produces a vastly superior 18.9% swinging-strike rate. The problem with increasing his splitter’s usage is Guerra doesn’t throw it for a strike, as the pitch was in the zone only 23.3% of the time in 2018.
Guerra’s slider is a below-average pitch, and has seen its swinging-strike rate steadily drop, to a career low 12.8% in 2018. 2016 was the one year that his slider produced above-average results, in large part due to a .186 BABIP. While his BABIP overcorrected last year to .353 and will likely regess, there is little reason to see this becoming a valuable pitch in 2019.