Urias’ changeup is a devastating weapon that has a ton of horizontal and vertical movement. It qualified in 2019 as a money pitch with an O-Swing% of 50.0%, 41.0 Zone% and a 21.2 SwStr%.
Urias’ curveball got him into trouble last year as it struggled to get hitters to chase it (17.5 O-Swing%) or get whiffs (7.5 SwStr%), all while getting hit pretty hard (.444 AVG with a 274 wRC+, .556 ISO). There’s still reason to hope on this curveball as it’s got a ton of horizontal and vertical movement, but he’s going to have to start fooling hitters with it soon.
Urias’ four-seamer was incredible, wracking up 15.3 pVAL in just 808 pitches. It has good velocity at 95 mph on average and good movement, but the peripherals show good signs as well considering its really remarkable 30.5 O-Swing% (really good for a fastball) and 12.0 SwStr%. It’s one flaw is that Urias needs to cut down on the walks with this pitch, as indicated by it’s 11.8 BB%.
Urias’ slider showed a ton of potential in 2019 with a 46.5 K% and a 15.1 SwStr%. While it did hold opposing hitters a .122 AVG, he may need to add some vertical break to pitch, especially if he wants to get more chases (31.7 O-Swing%) and could stand to improve how often he throws it for a strike (29.3%).
Urias returned from injury in 2018 to throw 4 regular season innings and 6.1 postseason innings out of the bullpen and looked excellent in the process. His fastball velocity was right in line with previous seasons and produced a 17.5% swinging-strike rate in an extremely small regular season sample. With a .407 BABIP on his fastball in his career, Urias has actually been unlucky, as reflected by an otherwise excellent .090 ISO against the pitch.
Urias throws an equal mix of his secondary pitches, but his changeup has been the standout pitch. Across his career, his changeup has induced a 17.6% swinging-strike rate and a 45.6% chase rate. Urias’ change features significant arm side movement and has been on average 13 mph slower than his fastball.
Urias gets more downward movement on his slider than he does on his changeup, which has produced a 55.6% ground-ball rate for his slider over his short career, making it his main ground-ball pitch. So far it has only produced a 9.5% swinging-strike rate, but by all accounts it is an above-average pitch, and he is only 22 years old after all.
Nearly all of the damage done against Urias in his brief major league career has come against his curveball, as opposing hitters have lit it up for a .293 ISO. However, he has shown the ability to throw it for strikes, with a Zone% of 50.6%. And with hitters only swinging 39.4% of the time he throws it in the zone, he has been able to use it for called strikes.