Lucchesi’s second-most utilized pitch in 2019, the changeup has a 10+ mph difference in average velocity from his heat, and a 28.2% K rate and a 16.8% swinging-strike rate help yield an outstanding 7.6 pVAL.
Lucchesi’s most utilized pitch, the sinking fastball is deceptively strong on the movement and contact-generation front, with a solid 21.3% K rate helping buff what is his punch-out special.
Statistically the weakest pitch in Lucchesi’s arsenal, the hybrid cutter was shacked around for a 3.72 WOBA on a 38.8% fly-ball rate.
The sinker was Lucchesi’s most-thrown pitch in 2017, with decent movement that runs down and in on right-handers. Batters managed to hit .267 on the pitch, but the long ball was an issue. He allowed 14 home runs on the pitch, good for a .479 slugging and .211 ISO. He caught too much of the plate and will need to improve on pitch location if this is to become a successful pitch.
The churve was Lucchesi’s strikeout pitch last season, generating a ton of whiffs with a 19.4% swinging-strike rate. The long ball got to this pitch occasionally too with six home runs allowed. There should be some positive regression coming with a .366 BABIP last season. This can easily become a Money Pitch if he can clean up the long-ball issue.
Lucchesi rarely throws a traditional fastball, mainly dealing with his sinker and churve. He will need to develop a third pitch to become a more effective starter eventually, but for now, this doesn’t seem like a pitch to worry about after being thrown less than 2% of the time in 2018.