Kelly throws his changeup just 12% of the time and has a K% of 37.5 with the pitch. It averages almost 88 mph and is a solid third offering.
Kelly throws his curveball over 33% of the time, and it is a sharp pitch with good downward movement. Averaging 87 mph, it is one of the harder curveballs out there and a big weapon in the Dodgers bullpen.
A true fireballer, Kell’ys fastball averages almost 98 mph and is thrown over 51% of the time. He consistently pushes it up to triple digits, which forces hitters to get started earlier and increases the effectiveness of his secondary offerings. Look for him to continue to excel in 2020.
Kelly completely abandoned his slider in Los Angeles and threw it only 26 times in what was a troublesome first year at Dodger Stadium. A worrying 25% HR/FB rate in just 51.1 innings was his downfall.
A blazing fastball that broke 100 mph at times, Kelly’s four-seamer was positive pitch for him in 2018 (5.2 pVal). Despite not missing a lot of bats (7.9 SwStr%, 18.0 K%), it created a ton of poor contact with a .258 BAA, .091 ISO, 26.9 IFFB% and a mere 7.7 HR/FB%.
A negative pitch in 2018 (-0.9 pVal), Kelly’s curveball gained about 0.5 mph in velocity and nearly 4.8 degrees of net movement. The pitch more than doubled its K rate to 32.4% and cut its walk rate to 2.9%. It also only gave up a .233 BAA and a 69 wRC+, so there’s hope that this pitch can become a positive.
Registering a 0.4 pVal in 2018, Kelly’s slider was fantastic at drawing poor contact in the air (80.0 IFFB%) and was great at generating whiffs (15.8 SwStr%, 27.3 K%) while limiting solid contact, as it only gave up a .226 BAA with a .161 ISO and an 87 wRC+.
A positive pitch (0.2 pVal) in 2018, Kelly’s changeup was a solid complement to his four-seamer at 87 mph and was very effective, giving up a mere .097 BAA and 61 wRC+ to go along with a ridiculous 46.3 K% and elite 20.3 SwStr%. Its bugaboos include a 17.1 BB% and 20.0 HR/FB%. If he fixes those two issues, this could become a devastating pitch.
Gaining over 1.5 mph in average velocity, Kelly’s sinker registered a positive pVal (0.2) for the first time in three years. It drew a lot of contact (88.6%), but it was hit well, giving up a .300 BAA and 154 wRC+ and had an atrocious 25.9 BB%. He only threw it 92 times in 2018, which is its lowest pitch count since he started throwing it. That may indicate he is slowly phasing the pitch out.