Barria’s changeup took the juiced-ball 2019 season on the chin, as his HR/FB rate ballooned to a rough 38.5%. Relinquishing an ISO of .339 (up from .183 in 2018) and .607 SLG (up from 2018’s .465 mark) to opposing batters will likely keep Barria’s change relegated to third-pitch duty.
On average, Barria’s fastball hovers just below the 92 mph mark, keeping the pitch’s velo in the chilly 32nd percentile on Statcast. His four-seamer’s spin rate falls closer in line with the league average, situated in the 46th percentile.
What happened to Barria’s slider in 2019? Flirting with Money Pitch status in 2018 (18% swinging-strike rate, 43.7% zone rate, 38.4% chase rate), the pitch’s pVAL dropped precipitiously, sputtering from 17.8 pVAL in his rookie season to 1.3 as a sophomore. While picking up two ticks of velocity, opponents made contact gains across the board (O-Contact up 13.1%, Z-Contact up 7.8%, contact rate up 12.2%) against the slide piece.
In Barria’s first season in the majors, he made his slider his primary pitch, and it performed well. Among pitchers who threw at least 120 innings, Barria’s slider ranked ninth in pVal at 17.8. Barria’s slider fell just short of being a Money Pitch, sporting a 43.7 Zone%, 18.0 SwStr%, and a 38.4 O-swing%. Overall, Barria’s slider should provide him with a nice floor heading into the 2019 season.
One of the reasons for Barria leaning so hard on his slider was his bad four-seamer, which earned a -7.9 pVal. The pitch struggled to miss bats with a 92.1 Contact%, which led to a .367 wOBA, 8.3 K%, and 10.3 BB%.
Barria’s two-seamer continued the bad-fastball trend, earning a -3.6 pVal. Like his four-seamer, the pitch was very hittable, sporting a 94.4 Contact% and a .340 BAA, while having a paltry 2.0 K%.
Barria’s changeup has similar movement to his two-seamer but comes in about 8 mph slower. The pitch had some bright spots and maybe allows for some room to grow. The changeup did allow a .282 BAA but managed a 35.3 IFFB%. The area where there could be some growth is in the 21.1 K%, which came with a 16.8 SwStr%. Generally speaking, an easy conversion from SwStr% to K% is SwStr% multiplied by two.