Another above-average offering, Bundy’s changeup carried a 48% O-Swing rate and a 4.4 pVAL. He held opposing hitters to just a .256 BAA.
Bundy throws a big, slow hook right about 75 mph, and it’s one of his few pitches that doesn’t leave the yard often. Granted, he doesn’t throw it much, only about 10% of the time, but it’s a decent pitch regardless.
Anyone paying attention might’ve guessed that Bundy’s fastball is not good, but it returned a pVAL of -21 last season, among the worst pitches in the league. He’s given up 37 dingers off the fastball alone over the course of the last two seasons. Yikes.
One reason Bundy is a perennial sleeper pick is because all his secondary pitches are plus offerings. The .219 wOBA against last season was right in line with his career .230 mark, and a 22% SwStr rate was actually down from previous years.
Bundy’s four-seam fastball continues to hold him back and is now a full 3 mph slower than his 2016 season average. Each year has seen a new low in results, with opposing batters in 2018 producing a .302 Avg., .272 ISO, and .399 wOBA against Bundy’s four-seamer. Barring a drastic turnaround, the logical option would be to throw fewer fastballs in 2019.
Bundy’s slider hasn’t been immune to his velocity drop, down1.5 mph on average from 2017 to 2108. But Bundy’s slider remains by far his best pitch, producing a nasty combination of a 47.9% chase rate, a 39.6% zone rate, and a 25.5% swinging-strike rate in 2018. Despite a 28.1% HR/FB rate and a .346 BABIP in 2018, Bundy needs to throw more sliders, and those numbers regressing would improve the pitch even further.
Bundy looked on the way to developing a solid changeup until the wheels fell off in 2018, with opposing batters racking up eight home runs and a .372 ISO against the pitch. Opposing batters have chased less and less, down to a 33.1% rate in 2018. Bundy’s changeup is bound to improve this year, however, with a .354 BABIP and a 38.1% HR/FB rate causing most of his problems in 2018.
Bundy throws his curveball as an infrequent get-me-over strike, as opposing batters only swung at his curve 24.4% of the time in 2018. When they did swing, however, they hit for a .419 Avg. and a .226 ISO. Similar to his change, there is room for improvement, as his curve suffered from a .500 BABIP and a 33.3% HR/FB rate in 2018.
Bundy decided to dust off his two-seamer in 2018, and it fared better than his four-seamer in a limited sample. It suffered from the typical two-seamer deficiencies, however, with a 4.3% swinging-strike rate. Bundy’s two-seamer at least kept the ball in the park, with the best HR/FB% and ISO of all of his pitches.