Technically the fifth pitch in Holmes’ arsenal, the changeup was basically a non-factor in 2019, being thrown just 1.3% of the time, with 10 of the 11 pitches coming versus left-handers. Getting 16% less break than the average changeup, the pitch will likely continue to only be a very occasional option versus lefties.
The hook is Holmes main breaking pitch, being thrown 23.8% of the time in 2019. While it’s 55.2 inches of drop was 7% higher than the average curveball, where it really shined was on the break. The pitch got 9.9 inches of horizontal movement, which on average, was 33% higher than the average curve. Getting barreled just 3.4% of the time, the curveball has an outrageous 52.4% K-rate, giving Holmes an effective put-away pitch to pair with his sinker.
Thrown around 12% in 2019, Holmes’ slider averaged around 87 mph and finished with a .167 batting-average against it, with a 29.6% K-rate. With a 29.6% put-away rate, the slider was second only to Holmes’ curve in that category.
Averaging 94.3 mph, 10% of Holmes’ fastballs are four-seamers, with the pitch being primarily thrown to right-handed batters. The other 52% belongs to his sinker, with the pitch getting 32% more drop than the major league average. The superior of the two heaters, the four-seam finished with a .250 batting average against it (and a .249 xBA) that was over 60 points less than his four-seam, with a .381 SLG that was .180 points lower.
Holmes’ sinker was a positive pitch in 2018 worth 0.5 pVal. Utilizing the downward movement typical of a league-average sinker, this pitch runs in on righties, drawing a good amount of ground-ball outs (66.7 GB%, .234 BAA) and limiting power effectively (0.0 HR/FB%, .021 ISO). Its sole black mark in 2018 was its poor 22.6% walk rate.
Holmes struggled with his four-seamer in 2018 (-4.3 pVal), especially when it came to commanding it, as evidenced by the 21.2% walk rate that led to a -18.2 K-BB%. This also manifested in the quality of contact hitters made against it: a .440 BAA, .240 ISO, and 232 wRC+ across 117 pitches.
Thrown 60 times in 2018, Holmes’ cutter was worth a 1.1 pVal. With extreme downward action for a cutter, it generated an 11.7 swinging-strike rate with a 25.0 strikeout percentage while limiting hitters to a .182 BAA, .000 ISO, and 33 wRC+.
Holmes’ curveball was a neutral pitch by pVal in 2018 but put up some promising numbers, including a 16.2 SwStr%, a 47.1 K%, a .176 BAA, and a 47 wRC+.