The changeup is the third and final pitch in Smith’s arsenal, but it generates the highest SwStr rate at 17.4%. His changeup has good late movement, and he added nearly an inch of vertical drop to the pitch in 2019. Smith would benefit from throwing his change more than 16% of the time, and because of its 47.1% chase rate, he could lower its zone rate under 50%.
Smith’s primary breaking pitch is the curveball, but it was awful in 2019. The curve earned a -2.6 pVAL on just 86 thrown. Even with decent vertical drop, Smith managed a scant 2.4% SwStr% against his curve in 2019.
At nearly 65% usage, Smith’s fastball is his go-to offering despite essentially league-average velocity. He generated a solid 12.3% SwStr%, up nearly two percent from 2018, thanks in part to adding 200 RPM. Historically, his fastball runs high BABIPs, otherwise it would a very good pitch.
Smith’s four-seamer garnered a decent 10.6% swinging-strike rate in 2018, though opponents still pounded it for a .225 ISO. Overall results on the pitch? A repulsive minus-10.7 pVal.
The 28-year-old’s hook got significantly more drop than the average curveball, but it carried a putrid 7.1% swinging-strike rate and a poor sub-30% chase rate, as he employed it as a secondary way to pick up strikes rather than a whiff-inducer.
Smith’s changeup was trashed for a -10.7 pVal and got below-average movement on both planes. It featured poor swinging-strike and chase rates, a 16.2 walk percentage, and wasn’t fooling anyone.