Pitcher List 2020 Mock Draft No. 3: Andy Patton’s Picks

A look at Andy's 23 picks in the 2021 way-too-early mock draft.

If you think regular fantasy drafting is stressful, I implore you to try an October Mock draft. The ADP’s haven’t come out yet, a huge chunk of fantasy viable players are free agents, only about 1/3 of the teams have closers—it’s an absolute mess and one that is even worse this season after an abbreviated 60-game campaign.

I tried to keep things as realistic as possible in this draft, while also targeting players that I really want to highlight and discuss their fantasy value both in this post and the subsequent podcast. I think I did a good job of helping to give readers an accurate look at player values at this point as the offseason is just getting started.

Otherwise, I tried to adopt fantasy strategies that have served me well in the past, hoping to get a glimpse of how those strategies will play out in 2021.

You can check out the entire draft board here

 

Round 1 (1): Mookie Betts, OF, LAD

 

Leave it to 2020 to put fantasy players in a position where there is so little consensus in drafts, even at the very top. Sure there have been some “Trout or X?” battles in the past few years, but this year there is a legitimate argument for five(!) players who could be taken No. 1 overall, at least in my opinion.

Mike Trout and Mookie Betts are the established, high floor guys, while Ronald Acuña, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis are all young, exciting superstars who have easy five category potential.

With this tough decision falling to me in the third PitcherList mock draft, I ultimately went with Betts. The decision was made in part because Trout has not been running as much lately, making Betts the safest floor of this group, with a clear path to be an elite contributor in all five offensive categories.

Betts slashed .292/.366/.562 with 16 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 47 runs scored, 39 RBI and a 3.0 fWAR in 55 games played in 2020. Hitting at the top of LA’s absolutely loaded lineup, Betts has a path to score over 120 runs with 90 or so RBI, 35-40 home runs and over 20 stolen bases. He has a strong history of staying healthy, and while snagging a shortstop like Tatis at No. 1 is definitely tempting, I know I’ll be happy with the security and upside in Betts at No. 1.

 

Round 2 (24): Max Scherzer, SP, WAS

 

I can’t remember the last time, even in a mock draft, that I took two pitchers among my first three picks. But after seeing Bo Bichette and DJ LeMahieu come off the board, I decided to grab a couple of high-end veteran starters in Max Scherzer and Trevor Bauer.

Scherzer will turn 37 during the 2021 season, and while he may not be the elite force he was from 2013-2019, he’s still got plenty left in the tank. Across 12 starts during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Scherzer posted a 3.74 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a 31.2% strikeout rate. While those stray from his previous levels of dominance, Scherzer’s FIP (3.46) and SIERA (3.56) paint a slightly rosier picture, thanks in part to an unusually high .355 BABIP and a 14.3% home run rate.

His stuff is still great, and I think a full healthy season will be a return to normalcy for the aging superstar. I’m confident enough in that to take him at the tail end of the second round and as the fifth pitcher off the board, behind Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Coleand Walker Buehler.

 

Round 3 (25): Trevor Bauer, SP, FA

 

In addition to Scherzer, I considered a bevy of talented pitching at this spot – including Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Luis Castillo and Yu DarvishI ultimately went with Bauer, who posted a ridiculous 1.73 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 11 starts in 2020 – along with a 36% strikeout rate, a 6.1% walk rate and a 2.88 FIP.

Bauer’s fantasy value for 2021 will be tied into where he ends up signing this off-season, and while it’s pretty unlikely he’ll post a sub-2.00 ERA over a full season, there is reason to believe his big leap forward in 2020 was at least somewhat legitimate.

Bauer surely benefited from a near 91% left on base rate, but the decision to increase his cutter usage while nearly abandoning his sinker and changeup altogether clearly paid major dividends for the soon-to-be 30-year-old. Assuming he continues to tinker in a positive way this offseason, and he finds his way into an organization that can help him earn some wins, he should be an outstanding ace starter in all fantasy formats – and I’m more than happy to have him as my No. 2, even if it means sacrificing some top-tier hitting.

 

Round 4 (48): Kyle Tucker, OF, HOU

 

The Kyle Tucker breakout finally happened in 2020, with a reluctant Dusty Baker letting him loose to the tune of a .268/.325/.512 slash line with nine home runs, eight stolen bases, 33 runs scored and 42 RBI in 58 games played.

With Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley and George Springer all hitting free agency this offseason, Tucker is almost certainly going to get a full season’s worth of big league at-bats in 2021, and his ability to challenge for 30-30 while not killing you in the batting average department makes him well worth a look at the tail end of the fourth round.

 

Round 5 (49): Tim Anderson, SS, CWS

 

It feels like quality middle infielders are getting snatched up very early through the first few mock drafts of the season, and I didn’t want to be caught without any of the big guns at second or shortstop, so I took Anderson with the first pick in the fifth round.

Anderson built off his incredible 2019 season with more of the same in 2020, hitting .322 with 10 home runs and five steals in 49 games played, good for a 143 wRC+ and an extremely solid 2.2 fWAR.

Hitting atop an already excellent White Sox lineup, which will likely feature Andrew Vaughn at some point in 2021, Anderson will be an outstanding source of runs and batting average at a bare minimum – and could easily approach 20-20 again in 2021. That makes him immensely valuable, and at a position of need, I’m happy to grab him here.

 

Round 6 (72): Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, STL

 

I took Goldschmidt in the sixth round of my mock draft last season as well, and after he put up a .304/.417/.466 slash line with 31 runs scored, six home runs, 21 RBI and a 146 wRC+, I’m more than happy to get him in the same spot again heading into 2021.

Yes, Goldschmidt’s power output was rather disappointing (over a full season he would have hit roughly 17 home runs) but the slash line is outstanding, and while he struggled to get the ball in the air – he still posted a ridiculous 39% line drive rate with solid statcast numbers on the whole.

You’d like to see Goldy get back to his 30 home run ways, and certainly at age 33 there is some risk those days are behind him, but considering how hard he hit the ball and the small sample size, I don’t think it’s crazy to think he will be back at least in the 25 home run range in 2021, with a batting average hovering around .300 to boot.

The days of him helping out in the stolen base category are almost certainly gone, but the rest of the profile still makes him a top-tier first baseman in fantasy formats, and someone I’m happy snagging with the final pick of the sixth round.

 

Round 7 (73): Hyun Jin Ryu, SP, TOR

 

Another player that I took in last year’s mock draft, Ryu’s first season in a Toronto uniform could not have gone better as the veteran left-hander posted a 2.69 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a solid 72:17 K:BB ratio across 12 starts.

The concern about moving away from the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium to the bandbox that is the Rogers Centre appear to have been unfounded, and Ryu has now posted a 2.30 ERA in his last 56(!) starts with a 3.06 FIP, a 1.03 WHIP and an 8.8 K/9.

It’s time to admit that Ryu is one of the best, most unheralded arms in the league, and even with his advanced age (33) and somewhat lucky LOB rates, Ryu is an excellent source of ratio stabilization in all fantasy formats – provided he can stay healthy.

As my No. 3 arm behind more volatile pieces in Scherzer and Bauer, this gives me a very formidable trio of starters through the first seven rounds.

 

Round 8 (96): Max Muncy, 1B/2B/3B, LAD

 

Second base is an absolute wasteland heading into the 2021 season, and if you take nothing from these mock drafts, remember that. After missing out on DJ LeMahieu and passing on Ozzie AlbiesI had my sights set on Cavan BiggioOnce Biggio got picked, I knew I’d be waiting for Muncy or else punting the position all together.

Fortunately, Muncy fell to me in Round 8. His positional flexibility does afford me the opportunity to look for another 2B down the line, but unless someone crawls out of the woodwork and becomes a bonafide option, I’ll probably spend most of the season with Muncy entrenched at the keystone.

Muncy hit 35 home runs in 2018 and 2019, and his 12 home runs in 58 games in 2020 put him on that pace yet again. Sure his batting average dipped to .192, thanks in part to a .203 BABIP, but he still barreled the ball up at an elite rate and showed excellent plate discipline, leading to a .331 OBP.

Muncy’s value would take a big hit if he didn’t still have that 2B eligibility, but after playing 12 games there last season he should be among the top 7-8 players at that position, and is well worth a look in the 8-9 round range.

 

Round 9 (97): Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK

 

Having snagged my second baseman in round 8, I decided to officially round out my infield by picking A’s third baseman Matt Chapman to kick off round nine.

Chapman had surgery on his hip in September, missing the rest of the regular season and the playoffs. He is expected to be back in plenty of time for spring training, however, and there’s little reason to expect he won’t be fully healthy for 2021.

Chapman had an interesting 2020 campaign, hitting 10 home runs with a .232 average and 25 RBI – but posting a terrible 5.3% walk rate and a 35.5% strikeout rate. The walk rate is about half his career norm, and the strikeout rate is nearly 14% higher than he posted in 2019. What happened?

Well, Chapman’s chase rate didn’t change all that much, he just really, really struggled to make contact.

His numbers when he did make contact were spectacular, as he boasted a ridiculous 93.9 mile per hour average exit velocity and a 51.7% hard hit rate, both in the top five percent of the league, while also barreling the ball a whopping 18% of the time, among the best marks in the game.

Chapman may have been selling out some contact for added power, and while 10 home runs in 37 games is certainly eye-popping, he’ll need to make more contact to return value at this pick, as I don’t think a .303 ISO will hold over a full season.

I do think 35-40 home runs is easily attainable for Chapman if he keeps this power-heavy approach, and while that may come with a depleted batting average and more strikeouts – I’ll still take that production from an infielder in Round 9.

 

Round 10 (120): Eddie Rosario, OF, MIN

 

As if adding the home run pop of Muncy and Chapman back to back wasn’t enough, I decided to add another 30 home run threat in round 10 by snagging Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario.

Rosario hit 13 round trippers in 2020, along with 42 RBI, three stolen bases and a .257/.316/.476 slash line. His walk rate ballooned up to a career-high 8.2%, over double his 3.7% rate in 2019. That appears to have been an intentional change, as Rosario chased less pitches out of the zone, swung at pitches in the zone about 10% less frequently, and took the first pitch far more often as well.

While adding plate discipline and maintaining a 30 home run pace is the good news, Rosario’s statcast numbers are a bit concerning – as his exit velocity and hard hit rate were both below the 30th percentile around the league. I am a bit concerned here, but the potential for 30/100 is still very much alive, especially if he remains in a strong Minnesota lineup, and the added plate discipline should help him score more runs. He’s a perfectly solid third or fourth outfielder and gives my team even more thump in Round 10.

 

Round 11 (121): Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, BAL

 

I may have reached a little here for Orioles slugger Ryan Mountcastlebut he’s one of my favorite young players in the game and I think the results we saw last year are sustainable, at least in a lot of ways.

Mountcastle was called up a few weeks into the season, and across 35 games he slashed .333/.386/.492 with five home runs and 23 RBI, while playing 25 games in left field and 10 at first base. That’s important – as many leagues will give him dual eligibility at 1B and OF, although his days as a third base or even shortstop eligible player are almost certainly out the window.

However, Mountcastle’s bat will make him a fantasy asset regardless of position eligibility, as his combination of home run pop and high batting average allow him to contribute in four categories.

Mountcastle’s value takes a hit in OBP leagues, as his walk numbers have historically been well below average, even though he posted a solid 7.9% walk rate with the O’s last year.

Still – he’s well worth a look in the middle rounds of all fantasy formats heading into the 2021 campaign.

 

Round 12 (144): Alex Verdugo, OF, BOS

 

Assuming Mountcastle will fill a corner infield role, I grabbed Alex Verdugo to be my fourth outfielder here in the 12th round. Verdugo slashed .308/.367/.478 with six home runs, four stolen bases and 36 runs scored last season, playing an everyday role for the Red Sox.

Verdugo played 159 games over the last two seasons (basically exactly one full season) and posted 18 home runs, eight steals, 79 runs scored, 59 RBI and a .300/.351/.476 slash line. Obviously just smashing two partial seasons together to predict a full season isn’t very accurate, especially when those two seasons came on different teams and in very different circumstances, but I do think Verdugo is a guy who could reasonably contribute at least a little in all five categories.

If nothing else he will be an excellent source of batting average stability, which will be necessary with Muncy, Rosario, and Chapman in the mix, and he could approach 20 home runs and 10 steals over a full season if given the opportunity. I’ll take a shot at that in Round 12.

 

Round 13 (145): Tony Gonsolin, SP, LAD

 

I considered a lot of pitchers here for my No. 4 starter, including Pablo López and Framber Valdezwho went with the following two picks, as well as Sandy Alcántara, Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie.

I ultimately went with Gonsolin because I think he offers a nice balance of strikeout production, potential for wins, and a very solid floor in the ERA/WHIP categories.

Gonsolin posted an outstanding 2.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 26.1% strikeout rate in eight starts with the Dodgers in 2020. This came on the heels of a magnificent debut with Los Angeles in 2019, where he posted a 2.93 ERA in six starts and 11 total appearances.

Gonsolin’s first 90 or so big league innings have been great, and his track record of success in the minors suggests it’s relatively sustainable, enough to buy into him as a quality No. 4 starter in this range. Dodger-itis is of course real, and it is entirely possible LA goes out and picks up more starters this off-season which could make his role a bit questionable, but I believe he’s earned the right to start every fifth day in 2021, and I’ll happily roll him out on my fantasy roster if I can get him in the 13-14 round range.

 

Round 14 (168): James Karinchak, RP, CLE

 

I made this selection just one day before the Indians declined their $10 million option on Brad Handmaking him a free agent and giving the keys to the ninth inning to James Karinchak.

Karinchak has thrown just 32.1 big league innings, but he has an ungodly 61 career strikeouts – a rate of 46.6%! Ever since he joined the Cleveland system as a ninth round pick in 2017, his strikeout numbers in the minor leagues have been similarly jaw-dropping, with a 53.8% rate at AAA and a 66.7% rate in AA.

Sure those were small sample sizes, but the man has 247 strikeouts in 134.2 innings in the minors and majors combined – and I don’t see any reason why those numbers will suddenly drop too dramatically.

Karinchak does this by pounding the zone with his 97 mile per hour fastball, which has a 16.7% swinging strike rate, and his ridiculous curveball – a pitch he throws nearly 50% of the time. It’s not quite a money pitch – it doesn’t get enough chases – but Karinchak gets a ton of weak contact when hitters are able to make contact, leading to a career 2.51 ERA and an even more ridiculous 1.40 FIP.

Karinchak is among the game’s most elite strikeout machines – and if he truly does get an opportunity to close out games consistently I think he’ll be among the top five closers in the game. That makes him an excellent value in Round 14 – although his price will almost certainly be higher by March.

 

Round 15 (169): Aaron Civale, SP, CLE

 

I feel really good about having Indians right-hander Aaron Civale as my fifth starter. An initial look at his numbers from last season is rather underwhelming, with a 4.74 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 22.1% strikeout rate, but he was doing some really interesting things behind the scenes – stuff that I think will translate into a lot of success in 2021.

Civale traded in his two-seam fastball for a four-seamer, a promising start, and he also upped his curveball and changeup usage while limiting his slider and dramatically decreasing the amount of fastballs thrown. The results weren’t perfect, but a 4.03 FIP and a 4.11 SIERA show he suffered from some bad luck – and he had plenty of starts early in the year that painted the picture of a potential top 30 starter before things fell apart in his last few starts, notably a four inning, eight earned run outing to cap off the season.

Civale has excellent command, a solid four-pitch mix, including an excellent cutter, and is in a system that maximizes pitching talent. I think he’s poised for a big year in 2021 and am more than happy to have him in Round 15.

 

Round 16 (192): Anthony Santander, OF, BAL

 

Santander is my fifth outfielder, sixth if you count teammate Ryan Mountcastleand while I probably didn’t need to add someone else into the mix I couldn’t resist after he followed up a stellar 2019 with an even better showing in 2020, albeit in 37 games.

Santander improved his walk rate from 4.7% to 6.1%, while dropping his strikeouts from 21.2% to 15.2% from 2019 to 2020. Although he hit .261 in each season, xBA gave him a .286 mark thanks to his 10.2% barrel rate – he just got unlucky with a .245 BABIP.

And then there’s the power. I don’t like mashing 2019 and 2020 together – for obvious reasons – but Santander did hit 31 home runs in 130 games between the last two years, along with 33 doubles and two triples. The power is definitely real, even if the statcast data reveals average hard hit and exit velocity data, thanks in part to his setting in the AL East and his ridiculously high 24.7 degree launch angle.

There’s definitely a potential for a drop-off here, but as my No. 5/6 outfielder and in the 16th round, I’m happy to gamble on Santander in 2021. The return could be quite solid, with 25 home runs and a .270 or so batting average absolutely in the realm of possibilities.

 

Round 17 (193): Sean Murphy, C, OAK

 

If this was an OBP league I would feel absolutely incredible about snagging Murphy in the 17th round, thanks to his ridiculous 17.1% walk rate in 43 games last season. That will likely come down over a full year, but considering he posted an even 10% in 2019 it is possible he continues to run excellent walk rates throughout his big league career.

Of course, this mock is for a batting average league, and that dramatically changes Murphy’s value as the young backstop hit just .233 last year with a .219 xBA and a 26.4% strikeout rate.

He may bring you down in batting average (most catchers do) but the power is extremely real as evidenced by his seven home runs, .224 ISO and ridiculous 92.2 mile per hour average exit velocity, good for the 91st percentile in the league. INnfact, a look at his overall statcast chart is pretty interesting – even if it doesn’t count as full analysis (especially in a small sample size):

 

Murphy needs to make more contact to reach his potential peak as a top five catcher in baseball, but I took him as the No. 7 catcher here and I don’t think that result is out of the question at all for the 26-year-old.

 

Round 18 (216): Jorge Polanco, SS, MIN

 

One of the hardest thing fantasy players will have to do this draft season is determine how to weigh very good or very bad 2020 performances as compared to a player’s previous output. Many players will fall too far in drafts because of a bad 2020 – especially for players like Yoan Moncada who dealt with the lingering effects of COVID-19 all season long.

But what about guys who just seemingly performed poorly, a la Gary Sánchez, Josh Bell or in this case, Jorge PolancoIt’s obviously hard to know exactly how to take these things. In some cases it could be a small sample size issue, in some cases the extended break may have messed with guys heads, or in some cases we are seeing concerning trends catch up to guys, making the poor performance more alarming for their future value.

Polanco was a fantasy darling in 2019, racking up 704 plate appearances while smashing 22 home runs with 107 runs scored, 79 RBI, four stolen bases and a stellar .295/.356/.485 slash line. That was on the heels of solid performances in partial seasons in both 2017 and 2018, and heading into his age 27 season in 2020 he seemed prime for a huge breakout.

Instead, we were given a measly .258/.304/.354 slash line with four home runs, four steals and just 22 runs scored in 53 games – with his 80 wRC+ 39 points lower than his 2019 total of 119.

I’m inclined to think some of this is just sample size nonsense, which is why I’m happy to grab him here in the 18th round, but his statcast profile is pretty discouraging. His barrel rate fell pretty considerably from 6.7% to 2.8% in 2020, and 2019 remains the only year his average exit velocity has been over 87 miles per hour.

I ultimately think Polanco is more of a batting average stabilizer and run producer than a huge power or speed guy, but while his value is certainly plummeting after a tough 2020 I still think he has relevance in 12-team formats and would be happy grabbing him past pick 200 if he is still available.

 

Round 19 (217): Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF, COL

 

Not everyone who does these mock drafts focuses too much on positional flexibility, but I want to try to keep things realistic and with a very barren group of second base eligible players, I think Hampson comes in play in the 19-20 round range thanks to his dual 2B/OF eligibility and his outstanding speed.

Hampson played 158 games in the past two seasons, hitting 13 home runs and stealing 21 bases while slashing .242/.296/.384.

He has massive strikeout issues, and his statcast data doesn’t support much power (Coors helps) but as long as he is multi-position eligible and is stealing bases and scoring runs (65 in 2019-2020) he will have value as a bench bat.

The Rockies aren’t the friendliest to young players, and there’s a chance he ends up in a dreaded platoon in 2021, but if it looks like he is going to be playing regularly he will be worth a gamble at the tail end of 10-teamers and in the 19-20 round range in 12-teamers.

 

Round 20 (240): Richard Rodríguez, RP, PIT

 

I really leaned into the ‘never pay for saves’ adage in this mock draft, electing to take my second reliever here in the 20th round in Pirates closer Richard Rodríguez.

Rodríguez didn’t make his big league debut until his age 27 season, but he’s spent the past three seasons pitching in a late inning role in Pittsburgh – and it all came together for him in 2020. Across 23.1 innings, Rodríguez posted a 2.70 ERA (2.85 FIP) with a 0.86 WHIP and an excellent 36.6% strikeout rate along with a 5.4% walk rate. He tacked on four saves as well, all in the last month of the season.

Rodríguez is still under contract and there does not seem to be a strong candidate to take save opportunities from him, unless the team opts to re-sign embattled former closer Keone Kelawhich seems unlikely. Rodríguez likely won’t be a top end closer, but he was a solid reliever in both 2018 and 2019 and if given the chance he could put up nice value in the role this season – at least enough to take a shot on him in round 20.

 

Round 21 (241): Tarik Skubal, SP, DET

 

I was tempted to try to wait one more round to snag my final starting pitcher, Tarik Skubalbut here in Round 21 and as the 73rd starting pitcher off the board, I think he’s very solid value in 12-teamers.

Skubal, like a lot of other rookie pitchers last season, had a rough start to his career. He made eight appearances and posted a 5.63 ERA (5.75 FIP) with a very disastrous 20% HR/FB rate and an 8.2% walk rate.

He also posted a very solid 1.22 WHIP and an outstanding 27.6% strikeout rate, and a 4.12 SIERA paints a far different picture of his inaugural season.

Skubal still has some issues before he becomes a consistent fantasy asset, namely his over-reliance on his fastball and a lack of consistent secondaries, but he has the tools to be a very solid SP6, and I’d be happy to gamble on that happening this season with one of my final few picks.

 

Round 22 (264): Tommy La Stella, 1B/2B, FA

 

Positional flexibility is always a good avenue to explore with your final bench spot, and getting both Hampson and Tommy La Stella definitely gives me that. It also allows me to move Max Muncy around if either of them prove to be good enough to play 2B regularly.

La Stella followed up his out-of-nowhere 2019 breakout with a strong 2020 campaign, hitting .281/.370/.449 with five home runs and a 129 wRC+ in a season split between the Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland A’s, where he finished the year. La Stella is a free agent now, and there is definitely risk taking him before he signs – as his playing time is hardly guaranteed if he decides to go play for a contender or a team that likes to platoon.

Still – at this point I think he’s worth taking a risk on, with absolutely elite plate discipline (11.8% walk rate and 5.3% strikeout rate last year) and surprising power numbers – numbers that may not hold thanks to his 88 mile per hour exit velocity and 28.3% hard hit rate.

La Stella is a guy to watch this off-season. If he ends up in a spot where he will play every day or close to it, he’s likely going to be worth a late round flyer in 12 and even 10 team leagues.

 

Round 23 (265): Gregory Soto, RP, DET

 

A bunch of teams don’t have set closers heading into 2021, and while a handful of those situations could get resolved via trade or free agency, I expect the Detroit Tigers to handle the position internally in what should be another rebuilding season.

Detroit has plenty of potential options, including incumbent Joe Jiménez, veterans Buck Farmer and José Cisnero, and fellow youngsters Bryan Garcia and John Schreiberbut I think the arm with the most upside in their current bullpen is flame-throwing left-hander Gregory Soto.

Soto got off to an extremely hot start last season, not giving up an earned run through his first 10 appearances and even meriting a write-up from yours truly. Things fell apart a bit after that, but he still possesses an outstanding fastball/slider combination – and after abandoning his changeup and ticking up his velocity with a full-time shift to the pen, he is a guy who is capable of posting fantasy relevant K numbers even if he’s not in an everyday closing role.

Detroit’s bullpen likely won’t be a huge source of saves, but it is still worth keeping an eye on as the season gets closer. If Soto ends up being the guy in the ninth inning, he is well worth a look as a No. 3 bullpen arm in 12-team formats.

 

My Favorite Pick: Aaron Civale

I took Civale as the 50th starting pitcher off the board, and I have a hard time imagining he won’t recoup value at that spot if he maintains the adjustments he made to his pitch mix last season. On a team that develops pitching as well as Cleveland does – this feels like great value in Round 15.

My Sleeper Pick: Tarik Skubal

Skubal was the 73rd starting pitcher off the board, and while there is certainly a lot of risk in his profile – I think he’s well worth the gamble that late in the game, and the payoff could be tremendous if he makes some tweaks to his secondaries and commands the zone better in 2021.

My Potential Bust: Eddie Rosario

Rosario’s statcast data is concerning and there’s a good chance he’s playing somewhere else in 2021, which could hurt his value. I think he’s far more likely to underperform his draft slot in 2021 then he is to overperform it, and after taking Verdugo, Mountcastle and Santander in the later rounds I think this is probably a bit of a reach here.

Overall Best Value Pick: Mitch Haniger, 22nd Round, Michael Ajeto

The return on investment for a healthy Mitch Haniger at pick No. 256 is staggering, and while there’s clearly plenty of risk in a guy who has not played baseball since the middle of the 2019 season – his breakout 2018 campaign and the 16 home runs he hit in 63 games in 2019 show me enough to believe this is worth the risk late in a 12-team league.

 

(Photo by Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire)

Andy Patton

Andy is the Dynasty Manager here at PitcherList. He manages all of the prospect content on the site, while also contributing a weekly article on Deep League Adds and dynasty deep sleepers. Beat writer for the Seattle Seahawks (SeahawksWire) as well as the host of the Score Zags Score Podcast.

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