I’m going to throw some pretty ridiculous stats your way about Luis Perdomo after his startling 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks start tonight against the Brewers: He’s holding a 70.5% groundball rate (1st in majors), with a .292 FIP and 2.90 xFIP, backed up by a 8.91 K/9 and a 2.62 BB/9. I’m sure you see his 4.19 ERA and shy away, but that FIP/xFIP can be real given his horrible 65.6% LOB rate and .344 BABIP. Entering tonight’s game, he had allowed just 20.7% hard contact. If you’re not familiar with Perdomo, he hurls heavy 94.6mph Two-Seamers and bumped his Curveball rate from 23.6% to 34.8% this season at the cost of his Changeup and for good reason: he’s getting plenty more whiffs with the deuce, raising its whiff rate from 15.3% to 22.6%. The whole package makes out an arm you need to chase in a 12-teamer and while I prefer Wood and Karns (Perdomo doesn’t have a third pitch making me question how deep he can go in games as he holds an IPS under 6.0), I would want to see if Perdomo can perform to his FIP/xFIP and keep the same K/BB numbers. There’s plenty of value to be had here and I have to say, it’s fun watching Trevor Cahill and Perdomo fight to earn the MFRSDPSPA.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Zack Godley – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks. I just finished talking about Godley on the Patreon exclusive Podcast and while those walks aren’t fun at all to see, one was intention and Godley settled down as the game went on. If he sticks in the rotation for good, he gets the Padres next followed by the Brewers, Pirates, Padres, Brewers, Phillies twice, Cardinals. That’s absurd. Let’s make this a fun two months, eh Godley? Streamer Record 17.5-14-6.
Dan Straily – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Straily left early after taking a line drive to the arm and expects to make his next start. And here I sit still in disbelief that I have to warn people from owning Straily for yet another season.
Matt Cain – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. EVen with this start he has a 4.04 ERA and 4.97 xFIP with a 4.25 BB/9 and 6.80 K/9. Just in case you got any ideas, you know?
Jesse Chavez – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I tried cherry picking stats for you, but I gots nothing. That’s a 4.22 ERA and matching 4.23 xFIP for Chavez across the season with a near 3.00 BB/9 and a mediocre 7.35 K/9. This is not worth your time.
Zack Wheeler – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. One walk! And look, everything else turned out well (1.33 WHIP but whatever). KEEP IT UP WHEELER, PLEASE.
Yovani Gallardo – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. The best starter on the Mariners right now. Okay maybe not since Ariel Miranda is there, but that’s a debate where no one wins.
Joe Musgrove – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Hey, a solid start from Musgrove! Sorry he couldn’t get you one more out for those in QS leagues and that WHIP isn’t all too good, but hey! Not bad. I’m not putting much weight in just one start against the Fish, though.
Sean Manaea – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks. This was a clear DLH situation and obviously you’re discouraged. I think he becomes he old self the start after next, which I’m sure isn’t what you want to hear (especially with me placing Manaea inside the Top 35 today), but I still firmly believe he’s a Top 25 guy from the start of June on, which means I didn’t have a choice but to leave him be on The List.
Bartolo Colon – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Blegh, why couldn’t he just let Ezequiel Carrera get a hit?
Chase Anderson – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Look, if Anderson can’t get the job done against the Padres, who can you start Chase for?
Mike Pelfrey – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Nothing to see here, just Pelfrey being Pelfrey. I feel bad for Mike, as he knows his spirit animal GIF is Ralph not getting any Valentine’s Day cards.
Brandon McCarthy – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Ouch, you hoped for a lot better from McCarthy in AT&T park, but this is why he isn’t with the rest of the good fliers.
Carlos Carrasco – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Talk about a poor outing all around, especially when he exited the game with the trainer. Good news here is was pectoral tightness that isn’t thought to be serious. My guess is missing one start and a possible minimum 10 Day DL stint.
Chris Archer – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 6 BBs, 6 Ks. Archer, buddy, pal, six walks is just not right. Seriously. Sidenote: I can’t remember the last start I saw where every stats was above 5. Double sidenote: I have totally been neglecting the Minimalist Score this year. Gotta get up on that. Triple sidenote: Don’t sell Archer.
Mike Bolsinger – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. The Blue Jays are hurting for any sort of starting pitching and Bolsinger is the latest to get the ball. Don’t let his blips of success in the Dodger uniform make you think any future starts will be different from this one.
JC Ramirez vs Chicago White Sox – This is the best bet among the other options to give you a solid outing, especially in the strikeout department.
Joe Biagini vs. Atlanta Braves – He’s been great thus far for the Jays and while I don’t see a Top 40 pitcher here, with his groundball rates and solid control, you could escape with a great outing for nothing.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Jordan Montgomery vs. Kansas City Royals – I know the Royals have been hitting a little better lately, but I still like Monty’s repertoire that get be a decent floor and sneak a win.
Game of the Day
Rich Hill vs. San Francisco Giants – Hill returns and apparently it’s “for good.” I wonder if he’ll survive the fifth.
Glad you pointed out that you like Karns and Wood more than Perdomo. Didn’t wanna do anything rash.
I am in a 12 team H2H points league and was offered Miggy for my Tanaka. What do you think of that trade? I believe Tanaka has a k rate below his career norm this year and hasn’t been that wonderful for me besides his complete game shoutout. But I am also concerned about what may be a lingering injury for miggy. Thanks in advance!
I’d definitely grab Miguel Cabrera for my Tanaka!
After last night’s start, do you like Perdomo more than Biagini or Godley ROS? Or do you still see it as Godley/Biagini/Perdomo?
Yeah, Godley/Biagini/Perdomo. All close and good flier options.
Would you start Ritchie Hill today?
DLH is in effect, depends on how my week looks.
I want to say start him but I’ve learned in my day not to question DLH (Manaea…)
So I have quimtana, Salazar, shoemaker, berries, goodley, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Karn, perdomo are available on the waiver. Would you drop anyone to pick up either of those two?
I’d drop Shoemaker for Karns.
any idea what was up with archer last night? sure, there will always be off nights (and i wouldn’t dream of selling after the 2 prior performances), but did you see anything that was cause for concern going forward?
follow up–would it be worth dropping marwin gonzalez for a flier on biagini to try to correct the era/whip categories due to archer’s start? alternatively, i could get rid of graveman–i know you’re not hot on him
Cutting ties on Eickhoff today after I see if Rich Hill drinks a bottle of blisterine. If Hill can throw more than 1 curveball without all the skin sliding off of his hand, I’m going with him. If not: Godley or Urias? (Points league with a big emphasis on Ks)
I’m okay dropping Eickhoff over Godley and Urias.
Would you move Zimmer and C. Anderson for Hader and Godley in a 30 team H2H Points dynasty league? got Ian Happ in the wings as well and figured that makes Zimmer expendable.