After going 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks against the Padres, Rich Hill ends the year with 3.32 ERA, 11.01 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, and 1.09 WHIP with 25 starts under his belt. I’m a bit shocked that the consensus opinion of Hill actually panned out through the year and I won’t forget heavily debating dropping him back in June when the Dodgers wouldn’t make up their mind. Is he starting? Is he hurt? Is he going to last more than 4-5 innings in a game? His season IPS was 5.4, which is pretty lackluster, though it was one out short of an even 6.0 through his final 16 starts since June 26th – which, to everyone’s surprise, didn’t miss a single turn of the rotation. Crazy. You’ll hear “if he can repeat 2017, I’m on board” come February, without the understanding that we can’t expect 2017 to repeat itself. Yes, you can bet I won’t be owning Hill next year.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Homer Bailey – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Look at Homer Bale trying to look like a good arm at the last moment. No, there is no way I can have faith in Bailey being a Toby next season, which is what we’re hoping for. Sure, I can imagine him as a deep flier, but man that’s not a fun investment.
Danny Salazar – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. My two cents entering this game was “He will have a limited pitch count and the Twins are a strong offense.” Stupid logic, ruining everything. Let’s raise a glass to the man in your league grabbing Salazar too early in the 2018 draft so you don’t have to make the tough decision to chase him when he falls to you.
Robert Gsellman – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. 3.50 ERA. I guarantee you that number will be floating around in association with Gsellman this off-season as it’s his ERA in his final eight starts since returning from the DL. That’s about the only positive though – 4.53 FIP, 5.15 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 5.24 xFIP, etc. – so don’t you dare think that it’s a hint of better things to come. Okay fine, better peripherals are probably going to come, but you get the idea.
John Lackey – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s the final season of Lackey so enjoy one last Birthday Party. I know it’s not really what the term is used for, but you get the idea.
Jeff Samardzija – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. So Loose Lips didn’t sink ships…unless your ship was last week where he totally did that. I’m willing to be that he’ll still be ranked in the Top 40 for next year and there’s no way I’m doing that again after yet another tumultuous season playing with my emotions. JUST GO AWAY. But his 3.61 FIP and 3.60 xFIP! 1.39 BB/9! Nearly a strikeout per inning! Uggggggggh. I hate it. I recognize that 200 Ks doesn’t grow on trees, but man, that 4.00 ERA will return regardless how much you want to should DIPS from the high heavens. That’s what Loose Lips does. Did I come up with a term for these guys? The ones who will look sexy due to their FIP/xFIP but shouldn’t be trusted? They are like the other half of being a TEEs…which makes me think “Teaser Trailer” which leads to “Trailer Park Trash” or TPT for short. Ehhhh it’s a long off-season, let’s see what we can come up with.
Luis Severino – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace as Severino ends his marvelous 2017 season with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.71 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, 6.25 IPS, and 193.1 frames. If you think this is a fluke, you haven’t been paying attention. He is Top 10 for me next season and I would love to have him as my ace. Won’t happen because he’ll go before pick 35, but a man can dream.
Adalberto Mejia – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Mejia, Schmejia. That’s what I always say.
Justin Verlander – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I’ve talked about this before, but after Verlander went nuts last year after a slow start, I expected him to pick up where he left off. This year, he had an even slower start before turning into that ace again…and here I am, wanting to make the same decision I did this year. But Nick, fool me once…Yeah yeah, but this wasn’t deceit! This was a sample size of one. Still…alright, I haven’t made up my mind yet, okay?
Jordan Zimmermann – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s killing it from Jay-to-Z. That’s like half of the range. Yeah, that’s all you get from Zim as he’s a Grave Mistake while being a terrible liar who doesn’t fulfill his promise often.
Matt Andriese – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. I wonder if Andriese can be the sneaky value next year that I thought he could turn into over a full season back in March. Maybe an injury free season can get there?
Kendall Graveman – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. A PQS for Graveman is fantastic if you ran with this. I won’t be surprised if he showed up on some sleeper lists, but it won’t be on mine. Not with his lack of repertoire depth.
Sean Newcomb – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Newcomb was our Call Boy and…yes 7 Ks but everything else went south as I have to take a tie, if not a Loss. I’ll take a Loss. Streamer Record 83-60-17. With four games left, I’m happy to say I’ve been doing terrible math and already clinched a winning streamer season, but I’d like to have realized that with a Win. So smooth Nick, so smooth.
Jon Gray – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. A PQS inside Coors with a WHIP of 1.00 and 5 Ks. I’ll take it, Gray.
Jason Hammel – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. And Hammel is back to his PQS ways!
Chad Kuhl – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s still a Young Gun as his command is wonky and I’m not sold that he has a proper third pitch yet. One day…
Erasmo Ramirez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Good to see all is right with the world as Erasmo apologizes for his last outing. I’m so sorry Nick, here’s a 2.00 WHIP and 2 strikeouts. Who am I kidding, I’d be a terrible mob boss.
Garrett Richards – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Of course Richards has no problem with the Astros but runs into quick trouble with the ChiSox. DUH. He tallied 77 pitches in under four frames, leading to the early exit and marking the end of 2017 for Richards. It’s a lost year and hopefully he can avoid the injury bug next year, but he’s obviously a risky pick in the draft. Yes I want him everywhere, but in the much later rounds as I’m not going to invest in him as a cornerstone of my staff.
Braden Shipley – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. This is a Cup of Schmo and don’t for a second think otherwise.
Reynaldo Lopez – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Hey, the strikeouts are back! His heater was averaging 95.5mph and got 10 whiffs on their own. Which is good…but when his CH/CB got just 3 out of 27, there’s a little concern for next season. I think there’s upside for more, obviously, but he’s going to have to take strides with that deuce if he’s going to be worth a consistent roster spot.
Gabriel Ynoa – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Ynoa what? WHAT? He’s more fallen than angel. You said that last time. WELL I LIKED IT, OKAY?
Mark Leiter Jr. – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Nothing like horrible rate stats across the board to make us completely forget who this kid is.
Rick Porcello – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. And Porcello finishes his season without a single Cy Young vote. I really don’t see why we’d want to draft him next year thinking 2018 will be any different.
Michael Wacha – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. I wonder if people will look to draft Wacha next season. I think I’d be okay at the end of my 12-teamer staff, but with a short leash if other upside options hit the ground running out of the gate and Wacha stumbles. He ends the year with a 4.13 ERA, 8.58 K/9, and 2.99 BB/9, though his 5.5 IPS is far from enticing.
Adam Conley – 1.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks. Welcome to the disgraced pile of “Yep, that’s Conley alright.” It’s cold in here. Sure is.
Nick Martinez – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. The Council of Nicks is disappointed in you, Martinez. Don’t make us send you back to the Land of Round Rocks. Nooooo please! Anything but that!
Clayton Richard – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton! I do find it entertaining that his name is the two first names of the Dodgers’ star southpaws mashed together. Yep, C.R., your associations are more important than you, yourself. Sorry.
Tanner Roark – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. A 4.59 ERA, 8.18 K/9, 3.14 BB/9 for Roark’s 2017 season, though his second half was a bit more digestible via 3.73 ERA, 9.49 K/9, 3.05 BB/9. Blegh. Not for me.
Brandon Woodruff – 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Y’all know I don’t like Woodruff and the Reds did their thang.
Marco Estrada – 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Estrada was on a roll, but he had to Fenway and we couldn’t bank on that working out. It’s possible he puts it together again in 2018, though I’d prefer to monitor from a safe distance first.
Today’s Streamer
Miguel Gonzalez vs. Oakland Athletics – Y’all know I don’t like Miguel, but it’s the A’s without Matt Olson and that could mean a decent outing here.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Luiz Gohara vs. Miami Marlins – Gohara did well against the Phils and I don’t love this one, but there aren’t any other options to turn to. That includes Tyler Skaggs against the Mariners, who I just don’t trust.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Kyle Gibson vs. Detroit Tigers – Just one more time Gibson. PLEASE.
Game of the Day
Sonny Gray vs. Jacob Faria – I’m curious how Faria looks as a starter again as we begin to craft where we want to draft him for next season. Gray is a nice bonus as well.
Hey Nick, I messed up yesterday. Bauer is not available in my league. It’s also too late to pick Peacock or Gonzalez. So which 2 would you stream out of the following:
Cueto vs SD (Perdoma)
Odorizzi vs BAL (Miley)
Tomlin vs CWS (Volstad)
Straily vs ATL (Gohara)
Gibson vs DET (Boyd)
Sabathia vs TOR (Stroman)
Junis vs AZ (Walker)
Gohara vs MIA
Ouch!
Cueto + Gibson, though I’m fine with Straily and Odorizzi as well.
Cool cool. I forgot to mention J. Montgomery who looks to be starting Sunday vs TOR (Anderson). Would you pick him over Gibson? Thanks!
Super close and I’d go with Gibson since it’s more of a secure thing.
Yahoo has Gibson going Sat, ESPN has him going tomorrow, MLB has both days TBD. Any word from Twins?
There are not 39 better arms than Shark. I am pretty certain of that. Just don’t draft him as your #1. Why sweat the 4+ ERA? He has all the other skills (except wins) that you are looking for. Most guys have at least one flaw. Shark’s flaw is probably that he goes too deep into games. If he was only going 6 IP things would probably be a bit cleaner.
Having a 4.20 ERA across 200 innings is lethal, especially so in roto leagues.
And there’s one thing to say that at the end of 2018, Samardzija will be inside the Top 40 – when you pitch 200 innings, it’s hard not to be when injuries are a thing.
There’s another to say that I’d rather draft larger upside plays that will give me better innings when they are on the field + there will be better arms to be picked up through the year instead.
Essentially, I’d rather gamble for upside than stick with Samardzija next season.
I don’t play roto, so I forget that other people don’t play H2H. I think that is where you and I disagree a lot. In a matchup, he is good more often than not and an earned run or two is nothing most weeks. In any case, when you continually end up in the top 40, you are top 40 in my book. I get what you are saying though. In H2H upside gambles hurt as I need innings and Ks essentially. Perhaps we have now identified why we disagree on Clevinger as well.
I don’t think many people are going to reach for Salazar. They didn’t reach this year and this was not a good year for him. It’s really easy to assume that some moron will make all of the mistakes in your draft, but the reality is, at what point does it become a good value pick for you?
In my only re-draft league I drafted Salazar because nobody wanted him. I knew he what I was getting but it was better than what was left at that point. In my dynasty league he was being shopped for pennies on the dollar. I have to think that his value is significantly less next year. At some point, he has by far more upside than the people that he will be ranked among. FYI, I traded him as soon as I could and got way more than the late pick value. The fact is that I hate every one of my last 5 picks or so in a draft.
That’s totally fair, and hopefully I’ll have a solid answer when I put out my “way too early” Top 100 rankings next week.
I don’t know if he is even a SP? But then again, when he is right he looks a lot like a top 25 guy. He is by far the hardest guy to value for me. I think he is just a lotto ticket. I wonder if he would be a lights out RP…
I have only one move left….which one would you choose for a final start…. Berrios, K. Gibson, Sabathia or J. Montgomery?
As much as I like Samardzija, I think i’ve got a good acronym that honors the “Shark”.
FINS – FIP Is Not Safe / FIP Is No Savior.
Love the idea, only problem is that “FINS” doesn’t roll off the tongue as much as I’d like. Also, “He is a FINS” doesn’t really work.
But this is a good spark!
Hmm, I see your point. I was thinking of referring to pitchers as “having FINS” but it definitely sounds cumbersome the way you mentioned. Back to the drawing board!
Second ideas:
OAF – Occasionally Avoid FIP. Easy to say “He’s an OAF, don’t take the chance”
APL – Advanced Pitching Letdown. You can take an Adam and Eve “temptation” angle and say “He’s an APL, don’t be tempted”.
Keeper for next year, price is all the same ( ESPN standard 5×5, weekly, 10 team)
Verlander
Berrios
Maeda
Samardzija
D Price
Manaea
J. Nelson
Thanks!