Last time Julio Teheran pitched I had a large rant about his Home/Road splits. It’s a major topic of discussion with Teheran as they are so polarizing and apparent, but I really don’t like putting weight into them. There are simply other variables that should take priority and they get thrown out the window because of this convenient delianation of good vs. bad. Well, yesterday was a clear option to sit Teheran as he was facing the Nationals…on the road. It’s like it was the true test of this stat and what do you know, he went 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks because baseball is dumb. I’m sure some of you could see the steam going my ears as it happened. Which is silly, I’m not actually angry of course, it’s simply that putting stock into these splits goes against the core of who I am when it comes to assessing players, but one of my life matras is “there are always exceptions” and maybe – just a very slight maybe – Teheran is the one exception that we can actually use. This was the Nats after all and he dominated on the road. Ugh, I can’t do it. I don’t blame you if you want to and I’m sure I’ll look back in October to see what his Home/Road numbers are like in the second half, but I just hate Teheran’s approach, his Fastball isn’t good, and the secondary pitches aren’t enough for me to believe in him as a whole, regardless of the Home/Road schtick. Alright, I think that was a good enough rant.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Luis Castillo – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Of course I wanted to lead with Castillo. I always want to gush my love for Castillo these days. On the real, I was trying to hold back my affection, letting my rational thought tell me that he would need a little time before dominating…but man he looked so good against the Diamondbacks, throwing 2-1 Changeups followed by ANOTHER CHANGEUP. I hope I can convey how strong of an indication that is of a young pitcher acting more mature than his age. This is a guy throwing 98+ who trusts his secondary pitch when behind in the count and gets batters out. And it’s thrower softer without the dramatic movement of a Slider. The only other pitcher I’ve seen come up with this confidence in his Changeup – and execute consistently – was Noah Syndergaard, which is saying quite a lot. Now, Castillo doesn’t have the devastating breaker that Thor had and I’m not saying he has a Top 30 second half. It’s hard not to believe it’s in him after watching yesterday’s start, but I wouldn’t make that bet. Own him. Just do it. Find a way. Streamer Record 47-31-11.
Mike Clevinger – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I haven’t forgotten about you Clev, either, as you’re making super happy as well, with three straight games of six frames and just 2 ER allowed total. Not sure how he’s still out there in plenty of leagues as the Indians have found a solid #3/4 for the team that Salazar/Bauer/Tomlin have failed to give them. Great schedule to start the second half for the Indians as well.
Alex Cobb – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. After getting the regression he deserved in his previous start, Cobb had the same 3/1 K per BB but his .087 BABIP allowed him to escape without a single ER to his name. I can’t endorse this as his 5.93 K/9 means you’re making a Grave Mistake and y’all know how much I hate those. Especially for a guy with a 4.12 FIP and 4.66 xFIP.
Jhoulys Chacin – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Chacin will do well when Jhoulyst expect it. But this was against the Phils, so we kinda expected it? And he’s actually been pretty decent over the last month? Hmmmmmm, I still don’t like touching Chacin at all and I really do like that phrase because my sense of humor is terrible but I can understand streaming Chacin in the second half if avoids the date in Coors and hangs with the Giants/Mets/Pirates instead.
Brandon McCarthy – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Ehhhh I wanted a little better against the Royals but I’ll take it, I guess. Just 75 pitches is pretty damn lame Dave Roberts. SUPER LAME.
Wade Miley – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Essentially a 2.00 WHIP from Miley and just 4 Ks but only 1 ER. I can’t roll my eyes any harder.
Rick Porcello – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Well look at you Porcello, finally having a start that your K/BB marks have dictated for a while. Let’s talk in a week or two and see if we’re still on the same path.
Tyson Ross – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Just three whiffs today, fewer Sliders and only nine Two-Seamers as he sat around 91. Nope, we’re still not there yet.
Marcus Stroman – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Great stuff from Stroman as he faced the Astros and super filthy stuff on the hill. His Slider was all kinds of nuts yesterday.
Justin Verlander – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Uggggh I want to get behind this but the four walks are holding me back. It’s still the waiting game as my hands are getting numb under my butt. I CAN SIT ON MY HANDS FOR ONLY SO LONG. Still, it’s encouraging to some degree against the Indians, just not enough for me to light the beacons and lead the Rohan charge for the second half.
Adam Wainwright – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Did I already assign Waino as the new Devil? Because he’s sture looking like it, going 6/9/9 ER with starts of 1 and 2 ER in between. That’s a recipe for burnt villages.
Aaron Nola – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Nola is bae. Have I said that publicly yet? No? Good, I could use some more embarrassment today. He had a super smooth two-start week with the Pirates and Padres and took full advantage as he’s pitched at least seven frames in four straight starts. Man, I remember watching the Pirates game with the Pittsburgh announcers saying “he’s only good for about five innings, so let’s attack that bullpen.” Oh, honey. Almost forgot, Nola earned today’s Gallows Pole with 15 whiffs to his name. Well done kiddo.
Ivan Nova – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Good on you Nova for earning your spot for at least another start on plenty of teams that were oh-so-tempted to drop you. I don’t have much confidence that he’ll help much in the second half, but I don’t blame you for holding after this. Just play the matchups n all.
Brent Suter – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Brent is going to falter Suter or later. Don’t be the one that owns him when that happens.
Zack Wheeler – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I know it’s a 1.50 WHIP, but I’m totally cool with 1 walk and 2 ER through six for Wheeler as he faced the Cardinals. I’m not buying a resurgence just yet of course, but this is encouraging.
Jake Arrieta – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. Pokes Arrieta with a stick. Do something.
Jesse Chavez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Sure, whatever Chavez.
Mike Fiers – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. There’s the Fiers I remember, but at least he got a VPQS? I know it’s terrible to root against a pitcher, but man I want Peacock to have a secure spot all year and Fiers is really the only obstacle in there.
Ian Kennedy – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. The Dodgers are not an easy team to quell and I’ll take this if I needed to start Kennedy, 4.50 ERA be damned.
Andrew Moore – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Moore is super boring and I expect to see him throw plenty of starts liek this, 5-6 frames with 2-4 ERs and not enough strikeouts to get you through those questionable outings.
Chris O’Grady – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Oh Grade me? Sure, C-.
Jose Quintana – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Yeah, I’ll take this for a start in Coors from Quintana. Sure, it’s not a good ERA or WHIP but 10 Ks is plenty to salvage here.
Luis Severino – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Severino got a tough break in the first and allowed a 3-run bomb that looked to spell another tough afternoon. Good on him to rebound and dominate the rest of the game. And I really do mean dominate. Still adore him a ton.
Chris Smith – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Nothing says Cup of Schmo like a spot start for a 36-year-old pitcher.
Stephen Strasburg – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Hmmm, that’s pretty terrible. He got hit with a comebacker, but sheer ineffectiveness against the Braves did him in here. This is the life of Stras, dominating with double digit Ks one game then looking like my middle school self later. Ahh who am I kidding, I never gave up 3 ER in middle school.
Jeff Hoffman – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Blegh. Coors is not an easy place to live but I would have started Hoffman here against the White Sox and I still think his second half will be better than expected given the lack of tough matchups the Rockies get. If he’s dropped, swoop in ASAP.
Adalberto Mejia – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. More like Dropalberto, amirite? I am so sorry.
Jeff Samardzija – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Noooooo I understand Miami’s offense is good n stuff but this is way too blegh for a guy that I adore as Top 25 arm. Do better.
Taijuan Walker – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. The Reds are no joke – especially with Luis freakin’ Castillo – and Walker is way too much of a Cherry Bomb for my tastes. Maybe a PEAS. I think that’s a more fitting term as he just doesn’t have the consistency to make me believe he deserves your roster spot.
Trevor Cahill vs. Philadelphia Phillies – I’m amazed I can call this a streamer since he should be owned everywhere, but here we are, still sitting under the 25% owned mark.
ALL-STAR BREAK Y’ALL
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
ALL-STAR BREAK Y’ALL x 2
Game of the Day
Clayton Kershaw vs. Danny Duffy – Man, so many good games! Kluber/Fulmer, Price/Archer, Taillon/Lester, Nelson/Tanaka, Peacock/Happ, Bailey/Corbin…Just playing. Anyway, I want to see where Duffy is at and watching Kershaw in his prime is an absolute joy.
Regarding Castillo, you mentioned Syndergaard with his changeup use.
But does he does he remind you of anyone, as far as delivery, arm slot, movement?
I have someone in mind, but want to see what you say.
Also, I’ve got to say thanks for tipping us on this guy from the beginning. Great find!
Hmmmm, I’ve heard Pedro comments a bit and I can see it, but he’s not as compact as Pedro was. Arm slot/delivery, it does look familiar though.
Hey Nick! At this point would you rather own Clevinger or Castillo?
I think Clev is sliiiightly more stable but I’d rather chase gold with Castillo.
Which rookie would you rather have ROS: Hoffman or Castillo? Dropping Hoffman would be my move to pick up Castillo. Or bypass both in favor of McCarthy, who was strangely dropped after Saturday’s start.
They are all going to be very close tomorrow. McCarthy for more stability, but I want to have fun and chase Castillo. He’s just so much fun to watch.
Would you say Castillo moves pass Nova in your ranks? That is the only move I can make to get him (him or Cueto who i’m starting to get fed up with).
Definitely. I’d drop Nova for Castillo.
Looks like two of Verlander’s walks were intentional: http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2017/07/09/detroit-tigers-cleveland-indians/462471001/
Noticed the recent change from roughly in order of performance to … random? For example, I was surprised to see Nola so far down, while you had Miley pretty high up, but didn’t really say anything about him. As with yesterday’s apostrophe comment, our constructive criticism on minutiae is clearly a tribute to your great work here.
With the new tool that gives us whiffs, it also sorts the starts a little differently, now by ER totals. I’ll keep in mind to move them around a bit for a better translation of overall performance!
Thanks for the kinds words, always touching to hear you enjoy reading what I write.
E-Rod’s coming back on the 17th… rather have him or Castillo ROS? Dropping Bundy
So close…Castillo since it might take a moment for Eduardo to get acclimated.
Thanks Nick. Love the site, by the way. You guys really know your stuff
Been attempting to build a stable of young SP’s for my 12 team Dynasty. Am currently in first place (barely),so retooling is clearly out of the picture at this point. Kindly rate the following, with a dual consideration of ROS and future considerations. Thanks so very much for sharing your expertise. Manea, Nola, Wacha, Godley, Castillo and Hoffman
Manaea, Nola, Godley, Castillo, Hoffman, Wacha.
Godley/Castillo is the closest of the lot.