Austin Bristow II and, this week’s guest, Adam Garland chat about baseball and answer your questions. They discuss all things dynasty, including their own experience, prospects they like, and much more.
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Timestamps
- Meet Adam (2:43)
- Prospects (23:13)
- Redraft (23:58)
- Next Year (28:56)
- Deeper Picks (40:03)
- Bouncebacks (46:28)
- Mailbag Questions (55:23)
The only special thing about Acuna was the unwarranted hype. There was nothing that set him above Moncada or any other #1 overall spec of recent memory. I don’t think he even had an iron grip on the position. You have guys like Profar and Swanson who had no business in the conversation and I am not saying Acuna was that. I am not saying he isn’t a heck of a prospect, but I think a sign of the times is the sensationalism surrounding prospects. I think you have more people that know less with really strong opinions than ever before and that is how everyone gets to be the most exciting ever. Couple that with a historically thin minor league pool and it that is how you get to where we are today. To be clear, I have liked Vladito since he was a J2 spec and I think he is special but most guys aren’t. Remember when Bichette and Lil Vlad were neck and neck? They never really were but in the current context of prospecting, the next big thing gets over-weighted. People are more concerned with being first on the new guy than being right. Its a parasitic thing where people want to be able to leech on to the success of a player – like the player needs our support or like we are part of the players’ success… That is my major quibble with sabermetrics in general – people want to take a piece of the credit for player success while contributing nothing. If you are a savvy dynasty owner I think there are opportunities to swap the shiny and new for the more established. Understand that the Internet is full of people trying to make a name for themselves by trying to be first or bold, then sit back and profit. I think trying to be first is bad idea in general, but it is even worse in today’s landscape. Imagine how great it would have worked out to trade Acuna early this season for a veteran! How about Gleyber? In many cases, you can trade the prospect for the player who already posses that specs ceiling. I haven’t seen any evidence that prospecting has gotten any more accurate. Rookies make more immediate impacts – but that is because of juiced balls. I think in the end they will not develop into the superstars that we like to imagine and they will likely be replaced by rookies themselves as they are ultimately cheaper and more exciting. I think that is the cycle that we are just beginning – think something like Starlin Castro’s career. Sell, sell, sell – except for Vladito… then again, I have seen the idea discussed that he can be traded for a top 10 player in dynasty – hard to not take that! I never see it mentioned as it isn’t a fun idea, but those early bloomers often peak and decline early. I love prospecting, but I find myself selling and pretty much never buying over the past few years – it hurts to say it, but I think that is the move.
Re: Scouts – I really don’t think most are very good at it at all. You don’t get to be a scout because you are good at it – its more like a group of people who know someone and can afford to get paid nothing and travel all the time. Some are good, but most are not – I am convinced of that. I think scouting the stat line is a perfectly reasonable practice – no less reasonable than trusting scouts. Ideally, you can read a stat line and put it into context – context is the trick. From there, scouting helps separate the good bets from the bad bets, but most have no idea what they are looking at. For example, hitters with simple, repeatable mechanics often get knocked (Mike Trout was a good example) and guys with flamboyant, high-effort swings get praised (Cody Bellinger is a good example). If you don’t know what you are looking at, then different is good? I think it is important to realize that a lot of the mechanical analysis that you see/read is garbage. There are very few experts on mechanics, but there are a lot of people that claim to be. Even professional coaches often have a lack of experience at coaching.