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Re Bellinger: I am very skeptical of him going forward – I have been since way before the World Series. I don’t think you are going to see growth in him despite his age. When you realize that much success at a young age, I don’t think there is much upside. Well, the upside is in SB… He reminds me of Joc Pederson – it is hard to change much once you have had success doing things your (strange) way. I really hate to say it, but I think he got really lucky all year long. I think everything went right for him in 2017 and I don’t think that it can ever go that good for him again. If you just make all the 2 HR games into 1 HR games, then you are looking at a .270, 33 HR (in 2017 which means 25?) 1B. There is also a lot of downside in his game as all of those near HR are going to be outs as they are just pulled flyballs. If the balls ever become regualr baseballs, he may be hurt more than any other player in MLB. I think his swing is just a death sentence long-term unless they keep lowering seems and filling balls with helium. He seems like a weird dude as well, which I think is relevant. You can see some pout in him when things don’t go his way, which is a hint of extreme downside – I think that is what we saw in the WS. I think of him as Will Myers (extremely streaky with some SBs that has some fake value based on some OF experience and extreme hype as a rookie) – a guy that I would own, but certainly isn’t going to win a league going forward. More of a a second/third tier 1B for me. I don’t expect agreement – just adding to the discussion. Hopefully I am wrong!
Re Darvish: I will be drafting him a lot I think. Not because I am sold on anything about him, but because I think he is going to slip massively. I will probably draft him as a #2/3 – I think the majority of the league will be avoiding him as you are. Nobody is going to draft him as their #1 any more.
The theme heading into 2018 seems like: don’t draft SP until as late as posible as well as over-weighting fluky 2017 hitting performances. In my opinion, identifying trends and avoiding them is how you win a draft. Don’t shy away from SP and draft veteran hitters who had down power years?
I think Goldy/Hoskins is a very poor comp. Picking a perennial MVP contender is not going to ever be accurate for anyone. Goldy was unheralded, but never hit below .300 in the minors. Hoskins never hit above .300 above A ball. Goldy is an athletic specimen – Hoskins is not – he is a big enough guy that weight will probably be an issue for him as he ages. The only thing they have in common is the unheralded prospect status in the low minors and their position. Offensively, Hoskins brings power, Goldy brings a shot at the triple crown. I don’t hate Hoskins, but unrealistic expectations ironically lead to failure. Only a fanboy is going to be disappointed in him not being an MVP candidate, which is weird. I could see Hoskins leading the league in HR, but make no mistake – that is what you are drafting him for – the outside chance at that. When you draft Goldy, you just spent your 1st pick wisely.