Nick Pollack and Alex Fast are back to talk all things Starting Pitching in Fantasy Baseball in Episode 43 of On The Corner. This week, they discuss Zack Godley, Marcus Stroman, Luke Weaver, Zack Godley, Corey Kluber, J.A. Happ, Dan Straily, Sonny Gray, Robbie Ray, and many others.
Timestamps:
Injuries & News
- Trevor Cahill + Matt Strahm (4:45)
- Yu Darvish (12:50)
- Aaron Nola (15:45)
- Luke Weaver (17:35)
The List
- Sonny Gray (25:05)
- Kevin Gausman (33:05)
- Marcus Stroman (36:55)
- Corey Kluber (45:30)
- Mike Fiers (49:50)
- Robbie Ray (56:20)
- Sean Newcomb (1:00:35)
- J.A. Happ (1:03:20)
- Dan Straily (1:09:25)
- Zack Godley (1:12:10)
Thursday Night’s Games (1:18:50)
I really don’t get the Fiers logic. You guys talk like he is going to cost an arm and a leg to acquire… or even like it is an option to sell him. I play in a 20 teamer and nobody will buy him for sure! Its not like you are going to sell him for Taillon or Berrios coming off a rough patch. In reality, finding guys that can help for free, like Fiers, are the difference. The idea of selling him or buying him seems disconnected from reality.
I’m with you! I am surprised there’s zero market in a 20 teamer though…
Yeah, people aren’t probably going to actually buy him after that ChiSox start, but more importantly I think he’s safe to drop after it.
There’s a major difference between selling him for Taillon and selling him for that last reliever spot if you need a holds guy or improving a bench bat.
Thanks for the reply. That makes sense. I always think in terms of trading for another SP, but you could probably get a very specific thing for him like a good 8th inning guy or an OF with some SBs.
It seems like you are applying the gamblers fallacy to Robbie Ray… He has beaten the odds so many times in a row that he has to lose soon. I actually think you have it backwards. Who cares about the semantics, but I think you are guilty of whatever you are accusing Ray owners of. Beyond that I think the analysis is right on.
Sorry, but I’m not sure exactly what you mean. The Gambler’s Fallacy is saying “because this was lucky/unlucky before, that will influence luck later.”
I wouldn’t associate Robbie Ray’s performances with luck prior, thus I’m not making the assumptions based on it. It’s pretty clear cut that he does well against bad teams, weak against poor teams. I don’t think he beat the odds against the Padres when he did well, and I don’t think he beat the odds when he did poorly against the Nationals.
What am I accusing Ray owners of?
You have been waiting for the bottom to fall out all year. I guess it did last night? I know you are a big x stats guy and you clearly associate luck with performance not matching those stats. Ray is the poster boy for that kind of pitcher. I read the updates pretty regularly and it seems like you are always passing on whatever ray does or at the least discounting the performance. There are only a few pitchers in baseball that do well in bad matchup regularly. I am not a big ray guy myself but I do realize that he is one of the better arms in baseball.
It’s a really clear cut case with Ray, though.
Starting Pitching is plenty more than just “start against bad teams, bench against good.” That mentality is one normally reserved for streamers or #5 starters on your squad.
Look at Sean Manea who battled through a tough schedule and helped your team. Aaron Nola killed it against the Astros. Jimmy Nelson shut down the Nationals. Marcus Stroman has had plenty of difficult matchups but had a sub 3.00 ERA entering Thursday’s game.
It’s so clearly different for Ray. It’s right there in front of us.
And it’s something that has been apparent since last season and something I preached in the pre-season during my giant rants about the guy. He’s been a guy this year that people have been calling Top 20 and he simply doesn’t deserve it. The cries that he could take that next step “if he can figure out the walks” or “the Curveball is the answer he’s been looking for” are discussions I felt I needed to quell as how we should be treating Ray is more transparent than a hefty majority of arms.
Call that whatever you want, but this is far from me having some personal grudge or whatever. Anyone who reads this site knows I strive to be as objective as possible and will admit right away when I’m wrong on a guy when presented with a good reason why.