On the Barrel Podcast Episode 20 – Voit Boiz

Jonathan Metzelaar and Dan McNamara dive deep on some hot and cold hitters including Joey Votto, Luke Voit, Bryce Harper, Carlos Santana, Tommy La Stella, Matt Chapman, Alex Gordon, and Travis Shaw.

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  • 00:15 – Welcome Dan McNamara
  • 01:30 – TGFBI Update
  • 03:40 – Bryce Harper
  • 10:00 – Carlos Santana
  • 17:15 – Joey Gallo
  • 32:00 – Luke Voit
    • 39:30 – Luke Voit a top-5 first baseman?
  • 41:15 – Travis Shaw
  • 49:15 – Matt Chapman
  • 56:15 – Alex Gordon
  • 1:04:00 – Tommy La Stella
Jonathan Metzelaar

Jonathan Metzelaar is a writer and content manager with Pitcher List, and co-host of the On the Barrel podcast. He enjoys long walks on the beach, quiet dinners by candlelight, and essentially any other activity that will distract him from the perpetual torture of being a New York Mets fan. He's written for Fangraphs Community Research and created Youtube videos about fantasy baseball under the moniker "Jonny Baseball."



Brad R

As a multiple time Santana owner and Cleveland fan I’d like to add a bit.

Gurriel is an interesting comparison for power but I see him more fantasy wise as transforming into a poor man’s Votto, at least for now.

Votto lived off of barrelled line drives for his power and was able to get 30+ homers in his prime without being an extreme FB hitter and hit to all Fields hard.

The thing with Gurriel vs Votto is a few things

Gurriel never we get a lot of runs because he doesn’t walk. He also doesn’t barrel the ball much and got 18 HRs just by hitting enough flies. I think the batting average with Santana will fall to his xBA which is near the BA of Gurriel but Gurriel generally exceeds his xBA.

Based on how they barrel the ball, if Santana Ken transfer a few percentage points from grounders into liners, he has a similar profile to Votto of a few years ago

Brad R

I actually think the over on HRs but exactly at 24.

His FB rate is down but the statcast FB rate which takes out IFFB/popups is basically in line with his career averages.

Statcast has shift statistics as well and he has posted shift against rates of 53, 58, and 66% chronologically the last three seasons. he’s always been one of the most shifted against players in the league and it’s generally worked But this year he is beating the shift in a marvelous fashion by hitting it to all fields.

He’s 53rd in LD/FB EV so I’m not worried about him getting 20 home runs. My biggest question is if they stop using the shift because it’s not working, what happens then?

As long as they keep shifting all the time against him and he can keep up this new approach, he can have a sort of Votto impression

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