With Jake Odorizzi earning a stellar 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks line against the Yankees last night, I know a lot of you are going to want to jump on board. His season long 2.78 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 27% strikeout rate are all kinds of appealing and that should be it, right? Vargas Rule this and see where it takes us? Honestly, yeah, that sounds right to me. I don’t expect it to last a while, though. It’s the highest walk rate of his career at 10.5%, his .253 BABIP and 5% HR/FB are far from sustainable, and his stuff isn’t that good. But he’s increased his curveball usage! But why? It’s a sub 7% swinging-strike rate and 28% zone rate. That’s horrible. It’s his slider that’s really taken shape this year with an 18% swinging-strike rate, destroying its previous career mark of 11%, and guess what, he’s featured the pitch at a 20% clip after hovering 15% last year (Statcast calls this a cutter, FWIW). There may be something there. If you can take a chance on it now, sure, go for it. Just don’t give him too long of a leash as this has the potential of being a Double Bubble where it’s sweet at first, but in two weeks you wonder why you still have it.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Dylan Bundy – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. So you finally had a start where you weren’t burned. I’m so proud Bundy. So proud.
Trevor Richards – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. This wasn’t an injury, this was Richards throwing 90 pitches before the fifth ended. There will be wonderful moments with Richards and I want to think that those will happen more often than the blegh ones, but he’s really looking like Jeremy Hellickson and I hate that. I won’t give him that actual label until the end of the year, but it’s not making me want to own Richards, especially with his tough schedule.
Mike Soroka – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. The man can’t be stopped. I’m so happy he’s healthy at the moment and doing the things we wanted him to do over the off-season. I’m still kicking myself for fully jumping off the train because of the shoulder injury, but whatareyagonnado. Don’t let go, Rose.
Gio Gonzalez – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Gio’s changeup was working today, though 21/87 CSW is lacking. It’s two starts against the Mets now and with the Cubs next, I’m sitting this out.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. This wasn’t The Uni’s best effort, but the ChiSox aren’t that great and this worked. Keep throwing him out there.
Luke Weaver – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. He survived Coors! His fastball/changeup separation is fantastic, 18 whiffs and 36/102 CSW, and even 20/23 cutters for strikes. ALLL ABOOOOOOOARD!
Jake Arrieta – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. It’s a 3.40 ERA with a HOTEL that should be sustainable, though his 7.2% swinging-strike rate is all kinds of whack. 34% CSW in this one is all kinds of cool, though, as he threw a good amount of curveballs for strikes. Nicely done.
Homer Bailey – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. After a pair of disappointing games, Bailey recovered a bit here…but it’s still so meh that I have zero interest chasing it. Sorry Homer Bale, I just can’t trust you.
Wade Miley – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. This is the life of Miley. Cheap Wins, decent ratios, low strikeouts. Atta boy.
Tanner Roark – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. 27% CSW against the Giants and all I think is “yeah, okay.” That’s it, that’s all I’ve got for Roark, a man who’s rocking a 3.82 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. It’s gonna be a lot of blegh along the way.
Zack Wheeler – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. I am so proud of you Wheeler. Fastballs hovered 97 mph (it’s like I got what asked for on Christmas!) while his slider was better today, going 5/17 CSW and earning 11/17 strikes. Props to his splitter as well, locating down in the zone and earning outs often. Things are good as a Wheeler owner. And enjoy the Gallows Pole at 19 whiffs, you wonderful man.
Chris Bassitt – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Hmmmm is this a Win? The ERA and WHIP aren’t good, but it is six strikeouts. Nah, I think I need to take the L here unfortunately. Maybe if he went another inning. Annnnnyway, he gets the Tribe next and I’d keep rolling with him. His curveball was a bit worse this time round, but 27/97 CSW is fine and the Ks are still there. Streaming Record: 19-16
Yonny Chirinos – 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I’m glad that he’s actually starting instead of the False Starter stuff, but you could only fan three in 22 outs against the Orioles? With just 9/93 CSW?! 10% CSW?! I don’t…How. HOW.
Patrick Corbin – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. A VPQS from Corbin? Ehhhhhh I guess. You’re not going to be truly elite this year, are you.
Rich Hill – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. These are the starts that make you question why you endure Hill. Don’t worry, he’ll be fantastic again and the feeling will pass.
Mike Leake – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. A VPQS from Leake is what you wanted if you started him. No it’s not. Yes it is you pot of greed.
Joey Lucchesi – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. And Lucchesi continues to be a drop candidate on your team. The Dodgers are tough, though just 6% whiffs do little to inspire hope. I’d rather be chasing something else.
Carlos Carrasco – 7.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. Carrasco was haunted by four solo shots in this one, the final blast coming in the eighth, flipped out by Tim Beckham. So it goes, keep on starting Cookie.
J. A. Happ – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. His previous outings hinted at more consistency than this, but this is just meh as Happ is turning into a true Toby. He just isn’t getting the whiffs on high heat like before.
Michael Wacha – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Wacha has been all over the place this season, though he has had one of the tougher schedules, facing the Brewers twice, Nats, Padres, and Dodgers before yesterday’s game in Wrigley. That might be enough for me to suggest starting Wacha against the Pirates this week
Trevor Williams – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. It was a Vargas Rule (+) and after one poor start last time out, here’s another 4 ER game. I get if you want to wait for just one more, but I think you’re not going to be happy in the long haul.
Yu Darvish – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. UGGGGGH. Fine. I’ll drop him in the ranks. Darvish’s command is still not there and it’s stupid and life is dumb and why do I do this. Is he a PEAS at this point? Possibly. But I can’t help but think of Darvish as someone who deserves the TIARA and cruise through the end of the year and beyond. But fine, he’s getting pushed down tomorrow on The List.
Lance Lynn – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. If you can’t trust Lynn against the Jays, can you trust him against anyone?
Tyson Ross – 1.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Ross with just one K? HASITFMFWT?! THERE WERE SO MANY TODAY. But seriously, any hope we have of production from Ross has been clearly gone all year. Don’t think that will come back.
Trevor Cahill – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s been a sad year for Cahill after last year’s hint of production. Maybe we’ll get back there. Maybe. For now, he has been replaced by his famous Irish doppelganger, Trevor O’Cahill.
Thomas Pannone – 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. The Jays didn’t announce Pannone’s start for a long time and this is no surprise. One strikeout (HASITFMFWT?!) is kinda his thing.
Kyle Freeland – 6.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Am I off the Freeland train? I mean, you have to be, right? That’s a 5.90 ERA with just three starts that you’re happy with this season, and his last two outings have been putrid. The good news is that you can likely get back on board whenever we see something solid moving forward, but for now he’s not worth the gamble. I mean, only one strikeout? HASITFMFWT?!
Dereck Rodriguez – 5.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks. If Beede did even decently well yesterday, I’d be curious if D-Rop would get removed from the rotation in his favor. Maybe there’s still a chance for Beede? Oh, another. Okay. And just one strikeout? HASITFMFWT?!
Manny Banuelos – 2.2 IP, 9 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Well this went as horribly as we expected. There’s zero reason to invest in Manny.
For those unaware, I’m forced to make my Streamer picks under the condition of sub 20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.
Spencer Turnbull vs. Kansas City Royals – A pretty easy stream as Turnbull boasts a 2.57 ERA – crazy!
Anthony DeSclafani vs. San Francisco Giants – I’m a little sold on Tony Disco’s new curveball, enough that I’d trust him against the Giants. Martin Perez vs. Toronto Blue Jay is another solid option if Disco isn’t available.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Lucas Giolito vs. Cleveland Indians – He looked better than the stat line against the Sawx and this could work well against the Tribe.
Game of the Day
German Marquez vs. Zack Greinke – Can Greinke survive Coors? Can Marquez survive Coors? CAN THE FANS SURVIVE COORS?!
(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
Hey Nick- Between last year and this year, I’ve had enough of Darvish’s ups & downs and walking 4-5 guys per game. Pitching was close this week and Yu just went and blew up my ERA & WHIP, arrrggh. Caleb Smith somehow was available on wire and I dropped Darvish for him and I’m not sorry.
Do you like Weaver or Folty ROS in a standard roto using QS?
Nick where do you see Weaver being ranked tomorrow trying to determine faab amount to spend on him. Thankd
He’ll be in the mid-late 40s
Yay! Weaver! (thanks for the heads up on him early enough to get him almost everywhere,) and, Lol: “UGGGGGH. Fine. I’ll drop him in the ranks.”
‘Bout damn time, hehe ;). Darvish hasn’t been a lock in a looooooong time. I haven’t owned shares in him since ’17. It’s a shame, love his stuff.
12 Team H2H 6×6 OPS and QS Redraft
Got tired of Lucchesi last year not getting thru enough innings and experiencing the same this year. Competitive league so not much on the wire.
Any of these on the scrap heap any better looking in your respected opinion?
Thornton, Pineda, T. Richards, Aaron Sanchez, Woodruff, Gibson, and Harvey.
Also, Lucchesi at Coors next Start
Thanks in advance for your response
I dont think sd is a tough offense. Nobody hits above .250 and they have the same streaky k prone group from the past. All they added is Machado who isnt really making a big impact except for yesterday so things could change but I dont sweat that matchup. Remeber how bad they were last year… Same team for the most part. They hit reyes in the top of the lineup which tells you how bad it is.
Hi Nick — Darvish. Please throw some of your technical excellence as to why all the walks? He’s not throwing strikes, I get it. But is there something hidden regarding regression or injury?