Nathan For You

Nick Pollack reviews every single starting pitcher's performances from Sunday's games.

(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

There was a bit of excitement yesterday as Nathan Eovaldi hinted at perfection but settled with a final line of 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks against the Mets. After some turbulence against the Mariners, Yankees, and Astros, Eovaldi has allowed just two earned runs in three starts against the Nationals, Marlins, and Mets, with 23 strikeouts to boot. There isn’t much of a need to go too deep here as it’s pretty simple: Eovaldi is a solid arm to trust against about 75% of teams. Nothing more, I don’t trust the 9 strikeout performances (his current 24% K rate should settle around 20-22%) but feel good starting him against most teams. I don’t see Top 30 upside here, but I doubt he’ll be outside the Top 80 at any point the rest of the way, save for injury. If you picked him up for the two-start week, consider holding as he gets the Twins next, then play it by team from there.

Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:

Brett Anderson – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Oh come off Brett, this is the equivalent of your friend saying he was trying to hit the ball in the corner pocket when he was clearly aiming for the middle. You’re not this good.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Digglerx had himself one of the rare good starts – a Werewolf if you will – and we’re going to have to wait for the next full moon to see it again.

Jake Odorizzi – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. That’s just 2 ER across his last three starts, with 22 strikeouts as well. I wish I could point to something being dramatically better here, but all I’m seeing is ChiSox and Orioles, with an exception against the Brewers. Not the worst play on a given day, but we’re still far away from granting a secure roster spot.

Ryan Borucki – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. This is pretty impressive as Borucki faced the Yankees, now holding a 2.25 ERA in three starts against the Astros, Tigers, and Yanks. I still don’t see him much more than a possible Toby, which we can wait on since he’d line up to face the Sawx next. We don’t want any of that.

Domingo German – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Solid stuff from German against the Jays, it’s too bad his changeup wasn’t very good here, which I see as the final piece for me to really believe in German. Sure, we’ve seen guys like Jose Berrios excel with a fastball/curveball mix despite never getting a consistent feel for the changeup, but that’s asking a lot of German. Still a Spice Girl, but I can’t graduate him just yet.

Junior Guerra – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Guerra is a Toby and you better like it. Solid stuff here against the Braves.

Dallas Keuchel – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s not prime Keuchel, but the fella has allowed just 3 ER in four of his last five games…with the one outlier being a 6 ER start against the Jays. His 17.8% K rate leaves plenty to be desired and while I can see 20%+ moving forward, we shouldn’t expect hints of 2015 and 2017 in the second half.

Nick Kingham – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I hope y’all kept the faith after Kingham’s massively frustrating evening with the Dodgers as he cruised through six frames against the Phils. He featured his curveball a bit more than expected – 5/12 whiffs – and he was locked in. Yes I want to pick him up and run him out there against the Brewers. Streaming Record: 54-29.

Jack Flaherty – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Flaherty had a super laborious third frame and was pulled early as a result. Blegh. So it goes, keep tossing him out there and all will be fine.

Michael Fulmer – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Ayyyy Fulmer didn’t tank when he got to the later frames and he’s holding a 3.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 22% K rate, 5.5% BB rate and 6.8 IPS across his last six starts. Whiff rate to 11% as well and things are looking good…except that he gets Houston next and that’s stress personified. I’d like to hold off on that one if possible, though it’s not out of the question he pulls it off.

Lucas Giolito – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Whoa, Giolito went into the eighth inning! AGAINST THE ASTROS! His curveball is still far from being an effective offering and his slider wasn’t the pitch it needs to be, but changeups and heaters got him balls in play that found gloves. I wish there were something here that would make me believe this is Giolito turning a corner, but instead he’s still walking aimlessly straight ahead.

Zack Greinke – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Greinke had a date with the Padres and gave us this. This. His slide piece wasn’t working and everything was kinda meh. It’s too bad, and I expect better moving forward.

Trevor Richards – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 7 BBs, 5 Ks. Seven walks? Seven?! Trevor, do you have a wager with Chatwood or something?

Luis Castillo – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. Castillo got the Cubs and got a bit knocked around. Slider was great, fastball velocity was at 96mph, but changeup was off. Wait, that’s two out of the three elements of success for Castillo…nah, I need to see it first.

Heath Fillmyer – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks. With Jakob Junis suddenly scratched, Fillmyer took over and performed exactly how you’d expect a Cup of Schmo to perform. Not a single strikeout? HAMISTFMFWT?!

Andrew Heaney – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. Save for a poorly thrown curveball to Yasiel Puig that was launched out of the park for 3 ER, Heaney was lights out here, recording 21 whiffs and getting a Gallows Pole. 42/103 CSW as well and that’s two straight starts now with the whiffs returning, earning an 18% last time and 20.4% mark here. Sooooo you guys are buying this with me, right?

Rick Porcello – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Despite the 10 baserunners, I’m totally cool with Porcello racking up strikeouts and not killing my ERA. He’s like a slightly better Toby these days and that’s cool with me.

Clayton Richard – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton! You gained nothing from this start. Nothing.

Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s a PQS from Wood as he faced the Angels and I feel pretty meh about this. Doesn’t change anything one way or another.

Drew Anderson – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Anderson is a Cup of Schmo. That all? That’s all. Sorry, I’m a little under the weather today and I gotta keep moving.

Shane Bieber – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. This is the story of Bieber – he gets hit hard a bit, but he should maintain a solid K/BB. He’s not a nibbler and maybe he can pick it up from Clevinger over time. For now, I’d keep rolling with Bieber, but recognize that there will be more 3+ ER games as he loves chucking heat over the plate.

Madison Bumgarner – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Here’s the thing, it was 36/101 CSW here as his deuce and cutter did some work against the Reds, but he got a bit Singled Out here. I know you’re a little nervous about Bummy, I think it’s going to be okay.

Alex Cobb – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Do we expect any different from Cobb these days?

Wade LeBlanc – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. You’d think LeBlanc could handle a bit of Rocky Road and while the WHIP is solid, the rest is super lame. I think it was a Vargas Rule and we’re on the other side now. It’s the bad place.

Jon Lester – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Blegh. Lester never got locked in here and everything that had been falling his way prior elected to go a different route against the Reds. I’d say expect a rebound, but we’ve been expecting regression for a bit and I’m not too sure it’ll get better.

Tanner Roark – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. The descent of Roark continues and there really isn’t a reason to continue rostering him. Seriously, this was the Marlins. The Marlins.

Chris Flexen – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. One day Chris will be able to Flexen his muscles on the beach when feeling good after a solid outing. One day…

Sean Newcomb – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. That’s another disappointing outing from Newcomb, though last time was the Yankees n all. He got the Brew crew here and struggled with both his changeup and curveball. Here’s to hoping he gets the feel for at least one of them next time out.

Antonio Senzatela – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Senz-a may belong in the talk of the Rocky Mountain Way, but that doesn’t apply in Seattle. Nope.

Today’s Streamer

Zack Wheeler vs. Philadelphia Phillies – He’s still owned in under 20% of leagues and that’s simply not just.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I have about four choices that fit my threshold of 20% or under and Hellickson has the best matchup, so it looks like I’m putting my faith in The Devil. Shudders.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Jordan Zimmermann vs. Tampa Bay Rays – I did write a piece on Zim that is being saved until tomorrow and I’m kinda buying the recent changes to his arsenal to make it work against the Rays.

Game of the Day

Clayton Kershaw vs. San Diego Padres – I want to watch Kersh have a field day.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

16 responses to “Nathan For You”

  1. Mike says:

    Hey Nick, someone is offering me Pivetta for Bieber… straight up. I’ve long wanted to acquire Pivetta but not sure if the swap of Bieber is worth it.

  2. kuzmickimantle says:

    Tell it to me straight – should I drop Newcomb for either Eovaldi or Heaney? And thanks again for a great roundup.

  3. Nat says:

    You need a moniker for aging vets that scrap their FA/FT (or reduce their dependency on it) and instead junkball their way to overachieving performances. Shields, Anibal, Zimmermann…

  4. Derek says:

    I thought SURELY you were going to tell me Eovaldis cutter long-awaited off speed to his one pitch arsenal, his high fastball was awesome, it would lead to a top 40 ceiling, and this article would be named “Nathan is Eo-volving.” Oh well.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      An earlier roundup was “Questioning Nathan’s Eovalution”, so I needed to go past the evolution puns here.

      I probably should have mentioned the cutter, but the bottom line is still the same. I just don’t see a guy that is a huge needle-shifter for the season, but still someone that should be owned in 12-teamers.

  5. Glenn says:

    What are your thoughts on Chase Anderson, Nick? Velocity has been coming back. Very solid last handful of outings. Preseason you had him at No. 26. Last list he was at No. 95. Do you see him as anything more than a streamer ROS?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I’m intrigued by Anderson, even if his recent three start success has been against the Cards, Reds, and Twins.

      He’s throwing fewer cutters (good) and returned 10%+ whiff rates in those outings. Not the worst flier, but still a matchup focused play for now.

  6. Dead Milkmen says:

    Nick, need to drop either Kingham or Bieber…. which do you think will be more valuable in a 12 team point keeper?

  7. Bert Convey says:

    Need to drop two of these SPs: Musgrove, Castillo, Weaver, TyRoss. Who goes?

    • Bert Convey says:

      OK, going by The List, it’s Weaver and Castillo going away. Note, though, these are my bench SPs and I can/could be patient into the second half. So thinking long-term, can you rank these guys for ROS 2018? Thanks!

  8. MH says:

    Nick, who would you rather have the rest of the way? Castillo or D. Rodriguez? I can’t believe I’m actually asking this…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Account / Login