If you’ve made it through one of the worst puns I think I’ve made in an SP Roundup headline, I want to thank you as we take the time to dive into Dallas Keuchel who has been atrocious since returning from the DL and put up a 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks spot last night against the ChiSox. Now he’s sporting a 10.50 ERA in those three starts (obviously inflated by last night) with just 7 Ks total and 8 walks walks in that span. Not at all the man we’ve known him to be and even more shocking since we’d normally say “he’s still injured” but after his own admission that he pitched through injury last season and how it was “terrible decision,” I would imagine he wouldn’t be making the same mistake twice. So I’m assuming he’s still healthy and I can assess this I always do by digging through the numbers. Here’s what I’ve got for you: His first two starts were very anti-Keuchel in that he struggled to get ahead with a sub 50% F-Strike rate. That’s very odd for a guy sitting above 60% otherwise. Fewer early strikes = more Sinkers while cutting back on Cutters and Changeups = less success. This specific start against the ChiSox he actually had a 72% F-Strike rate…but his command was nothing like we’re used to from Keuchel. Sliders up, Sinkers and Changeups missing their spots…that’s not him. So after this giant wall of text what I have is me telling you that Keuchel is still trying to find his feel after missing a chunk of the season. For those wanting Keuchel as a stable playoff arm, I think you’ll get it, he just needs a little more time to get there. Solid buy low for those locked for the playoffs, don’t give up on him.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
German Marquez – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. And the German hype train continues as he held serve against Kluber for six innings. Sure, he had to go to deuce each time while Kluber won at 40-love, but the bottom line is what matters. I have to point out though that Marquez held a 3.9% whiff rate across this start after hitting double digits in four straight games prior. Maybe he stopped throwing breaking pitches? Nope, still above 25% on that deuce…whatever, still want him for the Braves, Brewers, Braves, Tigers ahead.
Chris Sale – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 13 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Didn’t even come close to winning the Gallows Pole today with his 15 whiffs – second best overall. Step up your game Sale.
Corey Kluber – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Nope, that went to Kluber with his 26 whiffs. Enjoy your Gallows Pole, I hope someone is keeping track of them…
J.A. Happ – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s far from exciting, but I’ll take this from Happ against the tough Yankee offense. Now he gets the Pirates, Cubs, Rays, Twins and I’m on board for all of it.
Kenta Maeda – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Once again Maeda helps your team but doesn’t go deep enough to help it too much. No Quality Start, no Win, and the equivalent of a stud middle reliever for innings/strikeouts for your week. Just saying.
Parker Bridwell – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Today was the day of luckluster arms that I’d hate trusting on a given day actually providing value for your teams. You have to excuse me for breezing past them, because save for one or two they are all terrible rolls
of the dice of the die of the dice THE ODDS AREN’T IN YOUR FAVOR.
Austin Pruitt – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s holding a 3.12 ERA in his three starts, but really that’s two solid ones in a row (against Boston and Houston) and one terrible one against the Yanks. I’m calling SSS here and I would hate believing that Pruitt with his sub 6% whiff rate and 30%+ hard contact in those two good starts are really going to hold this up.
Vance Worley – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Oh just stop it Vance. This reeks of that friend that gets thrown in the mix because everyone else was joining in. Like those Reddit threads where everyone gets Gold.
Sal Romano – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Wait, Romano didn’t do well, why is he included here? Because I selected him as the Call Boy just because I expected about five strikeouts from him against the Padres. BUT NO. WHY WOULD I EXPECT THAT. Next time I ever suggest Romano as a streamer, tell me off. Please. Seriously. Streamer Record 58-42-14.
Ty Blach – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Blach. If you want to keep making Three-Fists Compromises, by all means. If you want to treat Blach like the very ocassional streamer, I think I can get behind that.
Zach Eflin – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Oh look, Eflin’s back! He’s a Cup of Schmo though. Womp womp.
Kendall Graveman – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I know there are some of you out there that are infatuated by Graveman. Check yo self before you wreck yo self.
Luis Perdomo – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Hey, 7 Ks from Perdomo! Hey a near 2.00 WHIP!
Chris Flexen – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. You’re going to have to Flexen harder than this.
Jeremy Hellickson – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. He’s the devil I tell you. THE DEVIL! Sure, he’s suddenly thrown 20%+ Curveballs for the first time all year and reeling back on his Changeup usage that used to be his best pitch but has been terrible for him this year…Nick this really sounds like you’re kinda buying in Hellickson. I’m so petrified by this. He’s the Devil but he’s making a change in approach…
Chad Kuhl – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Okay I had a good amount of people curious yesterday about this start specifically and he gave you a PQS with a 1.00 WHIP and 6 Ks. That’s a solid stream. That’s a 2.93 ERA across his last eight starts…with a 4.23 xFIP (2.8% HR/FB rate!), 3.72 BB/9, meh 7.24 K/9 (five starts with 4 or fewer Ks in that time) and just three starts above an 8% whiff rate. Yeah, I really don’t like buying this though I will consider him as a possible streaming candidate in the future.
Zack Godley – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Alright, back to normal. Godley had to face the Dodgers and gave you a Quality Start with 5 Ks. Not the greatest of nights but there is value here as he faced a Top 3 offense. That’s my man.
Derek Holland – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 7 BBs, 5 Ks. 7 Walks? PUT ME IN COACH I CAN HANDLE THIS.
Adalberto Mejia – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Mejia left with an arm injury. As if you owned him, but if for some reason you did before, don’t anymore. Hey that rhymed! Is that so? I didn’t know. Don’t push it.
Jose Quintana – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. That WHIP is actually solid and while I want more than 3 Ks, Quintana getting a PQS is just like the old days.
Michael Wacha – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Sure, I’ll take a PQS Wacha. Thanks bud.
A.J. Cole – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Cole is getting some time as Stephen Strasburg is still gearing up to return. Too bad he’s a Cup of Schmo.
A.J. Griffin – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Today was one of those days where Griffin said “you know what, maybe I should try to be myself today.” Good for you Griffin, bad for us.
CC Sabathia – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. His right knee is hurting as Sabathia should not be touched in fantasy. It makes you wonder if either Jordan Montgomery will get another shot back in the rotation or if Chance Adams might be making his way to New York. Probably not the latter but we can keep dreaming, can’t we?
Matt Boyd – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Yep, still Boyd Watching.
Julio Teheran – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. This was home, which clearly negated the fact the he faced the Phillies. Of course.
Ariel Miranda – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s all crashing down on Ariel. I don’t want to be part of this world anymore.
Jason Vargas – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Speaking of worlds crumbling, Vargas now holds a 7.62 ERA since the start of July in six starts. Yep.
Matt Garza – 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. And Garza is once again making owners feel like this.
Jerad Eickhoff vs. Atlanta Braves – I could imagine someone also rolling with his opponent Sean Newcomb, but Eickhoff has the better floor.
Luis Castillo vs. San Diego Padres – Like last time, if he’s not available go with Dinelson Lamet, who will be in the other dugout in this game. That Reds offense that has been “surprisingly good” this year? Yeah, it’s 24th in wOBA over the last 14 days.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Nick Pivetta vs. New York Mets – I can see some going with Seth Lugo over Pivetta, but I like Pivetta’s strikeout upside more.
Game of the Day
Zack Greinke vs. Alex Wood – Is Wood’s velocity going to climb back up? Is Greinke going to make deGrom grovel at his feet?
What are the chances on 10 (10 being yes) that Price makes another start this year? I am starting to believe that he won’t be pitching for at least another month + … I know lots of people prob. want to know because their playoff runs! I have lost hope!
I dont think you can assume that Keuchel is healthy. He is certainly not pitching like it. The alternative to saying he is healthy is sitting out the rest of the year and not pitching for a WS contender.
Here’s where I’m getting the Keuchel injury rhetoric from (http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/After-a-trying-season-Dallas-Keuchel-focuses-on-9684672.php):
“He says he learned this year that he needs to be more open with the team’s trainers and medical staff. He’s always been one to not want to say much when something bothers him.
“Sometimes I’ve got to put my stubbornness away and kind of have an open dialogue with them,” he said.'”
I have to believe that the Astros can rest him a ton if he needs it now. Either you believe he needs season ending surgery or that he’s making the same mistake twice in less dire situation.
Marquez for Keuchel seems like a good move then?
I wouldn’t make that move. Can’t say I believe in Marquez to continue pitching at a Top 30 level while I don’t believe Keuchel is this bad.
I’d be getting the keuchel side.
Oh! I’m all for it Matt. Sorry!