(Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire)
Today was an exciting day of pitching and I for one did not expect to be leading with Trevor Cahill but here I am after he went 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. against the ChiSox. Yes, they are not a strong offense, but I can’t deny the 14 whiffs, solid changeups, and curveballs finding the zone. What I can deny is the idea that his 92+ velocity would return right away as he sported 90.7mph across this one. It could come back as he gets more starts on the bump and don’t forget the fantastic run he had last season before his shoulder injury, which featured a 29.5% K rate, 1.21 WHIP, and 3.01 FIP in seven starts. While you shouldn’t anticipate that, and facing the ChiSox does come with a tablespoon of salt, I want to make sure Cahill is on your radar as an upside guy hanging out on your wire. This could end terrible, this could end well, this could end with us feeling emotionless and neutral like a piece of bark hanging out in the forest. Just keep an eye out and make a move for his next Texas start if you need the help.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Chad Bettis – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Is it time for us to start believing in Bettis? Probably not. Yes, it’s a 1.44 ERA through 25.0 IP to start the year, but it comes with a 5.40 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, a .217 BABIP and 95.2% LOB rate. That’s a 4.24 FIP and his home games are in Coors. You’re setting yourself up for a Grave Mistake and you definitely don’t want to be doing that.
Patrick Corbin – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Corbin is still dealing, taking full advantage of the Giants once again, missing a no-hitter by a weak check-swing dribbler by Brandon Belt. Yes that single felt dirty, yes Corbin is pitching like an ace. Despite winning the Gallows Pole once again – 18 whiffs – and looking like an ace, I can’t give him the coveted AGA. Show me two more stellar starts, one against the Padres (he should dominate) and one against the Nationals. Cruz with those, and it’s all yours.
Johnny Cueto – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. So this was a mini-DLH and Cueto made that blow up in our faces. It’s always awesome to see a pitcher flat out dominate in a game, and Cueto’s stuff was moving plenty today, with changeups falling off this table and that table, even that stylish 50s chrome table that made me nostalgic of my grandmother’s living room. It is just one start and we know how we can’t buy so hard into just one outing, but it certainly does validate those that took a high pick on Cueto, even if it is just one night. Here’s to hoping he does it again.
Danny Duffy – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. That’s two straight 7+ K outings from Duffy and I wonder if he’s figured it out. 16 whiffs in this one, 13 from his sliders/changeups and that’s a wonderful sign. Still want those walks to dip to two or fewer, but I’ll definitely take this. Give me a third straight and we’ll talk.
Jarlin Garcia – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks. How did this happen. Seriously, I watched this and I still don’t fully understand it. His command was bad. He earned just six whiffs on 92 pitches. He left a ton of pitches in the middle of the plate. Yet the massive Yankee hitters simply couldn’t find grass like an addict stuck at bible camp. Not my bible camp. Please don’t buy into the Jarlin, the Darlin’ Marlin.
Junior Guerra – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Guerra is back! Wait, I don’t like Guerra. Guerra is back. Yeah, that sounds a lot better. Why don’t you like Guerra? Because he held a 5.12 ERA last year (5.23 SIERA) and I didn’t see anything here or last time that suggests that he’s made any changes. That makes sense, right?
Matt Moore – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. This is the Moore we’ve seen afore, the one at the core who we adore and not abhor. But the lore from one-four said we’re in store for a lot more. Tonight wasn’t a cure nor a golden door to raise his floor. Don’t endure, sell him before you’re poor.
Adam Wainwright – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Soooo I guess Wacha will have to be the one to struggle and let Flaherty rejoin the rotation? Thanks for nothing, Waino.
Alex Wood – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. So his velocity was higher than his last start at 90mph, but that didn’t matter as he cruised through five frames, featuring stellar command and a solid fastball/changeup mix. On that changeup it earned seven whiffs on 26 thrown, en route to a 16% overall whiff rate on 77 total pitches. Yeah, he got pulled in the sixth after making a throwing error to 2nd on a possible inning-ending double play back to the mound. Bleeegh. I’m tempted to say Blame it on the Padres here, but he’s also going to get the Marlins and Giants in his next two starts…sell him after that and you’ll be a very happy man. Or woman. Person.
Mike Foltynewicz – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks. Hmmmm, I do wonder if Folty is actually turning a corner with his changeup, or if it’s just a product of two starts against Philly and one great night against the Nats. This is a total of just 6 ER in four starts…I would say wait for a start against a good team, but then again he faces the Mets, Phillies, Mets, Rays, Marlins in his next five starts. Sign me up!
Corey Kluber – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Yeah, you might see him at #3 next week. Nothing personal, Sale.
Lance McCullers – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. This is why you weren’t supposed to drop McCullers. You’re just going to have to deal with the bad to get the good. It’s kinda funny, seeing the worst of McCullers the very best of McCullers. This could very well be the best start he’s ever had – even that 9 IP, 1ER, 11 K game in 2015 had double the baserunners.
Ariel Miranda – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks. Sorry Ariel, I don’t want to be a part of this world.
Nick Pivetta – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. So I’m cool with this, but it’s so underwhelming after getting a little hyped on Pivetta’s breaking stuff, especially when he kinda cheated by getting one of his strikeouts via the opposing pitcher. Just, you know, wow us next time, okay? Streaming Record: 12-5.
David Price – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Ehhhhh I wanted to see fewer walks and I kinda hate he was pulled after just 78 pitches, but the Sawx were cruising 9-1 and I’m sure this was precautionary. Still, even with the 6 strikeouts, I was hoping for vintage dominance. Whatever, he’s healthy, he’s great, be happy.
Tyler Chatwood – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 7 BBs, 7 Ks. 7 Walks in under five innings, but just 2 ER. He can’t keep getting away with it…
Gio Gonzalez – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Sure, whatever Gio. You’re a Toby and will always be a Toby.
Francisco Liriano – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. This is pretty much identical to the Price line, but Liriano won’t get the same love. NOPE. Not with your 4.33 FIP and 4.08 BB/9 now as you’ve needed an 87.2% LOB rate and .217 BABIP for your success.
Sal Romano – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Sal good, right? No, Sal bad. This does nothing to make me reconsider him as a man who should stay on your wire.
Trevor Williams – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. 3 walks and just four Ks, but a Quality Start that makes you happy? Sure, I’ll just keep ignoring the SIERA that say at 5.09 entering today and his current 5.40 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9. Wait, no. Definitely don’t ignore that.
Joe Biagini – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Look Nick! Biagini is back! Yeah, because it was a double-header. Oh. Yep. He did look like good ole Biagini, though, and I still believe that time in the rotation would iron out the kinks like his changeup command and keeping his heater down in the zone that would actually speak to 12-teamer relevance, but so it goes.
Andrew Cashner – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Cashner’s command has had its moments out of the gate, and I’m happy he can remind us that he’s often going to be bad, too. Yes, being a Cashner owner is a stressful job.
Jaime Garcia – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. There was talk about this being a possible streamer against the Royals and while I understand why, watching this start gave confirmation about not going that route often in the future. Way too many mistake pitches and against any stronger teams, that 3 ER doubles easily.
Bryan Mitchell – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. You will take a PQS from Mitchell any day of the week, especially if it comes with just two walks.
Shohei Ohtani – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Well this was a disappointment. Maybe I should be happy about the whole “sell high”schtick, but I’m not. I want to see Ohtani do well, not throw 67 pitches in two frames and leave with a blister. That’s fun for nobody.
Zach Wheeler – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s a VVPQS for Wheeler, which makes you feel kinda dirty, but at least you got something out of this 2 strikeout night. You can’t say you expected much different against the Nats – even with his solid outing against the Marlins last time (it was the Marlins) – and now he’ll probably get ousted by Jason Vargas coming back. No need to hold onto Wheeler until the next Met inevitably gets injured.
Jake Odorizzi – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I don’t have fun tools to tell me about this one because it was played in Puerto Rico. BUT I WANT TO KNOW HOW MANY CURVEBALLS ODORIZZI THREW. He did earn 10 whiffs in 97 pitches, which is fine so I guess I’ll just accept this game happened and move on. Blegh.
Eric Skoglund – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Hey, six Ks from Skoglund, that’s something, right? Who? Sorry, Skoh-Glund, not Skog-lund. Ohhhh Skoh-Glund.
Yonny Chirinos – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Hey Johnny, you see that hype? There it goes, dying like a quail. Right from walking the first batter on four pitches, Chirinos never looked comfortable, with wonky fastball command and hanging secondary pitches. Even with this, I’m not ready to completely drop him – it depends on what else is on the wire – but I may hold back from starting him next time against the Twins…and definitely the Sawx after.
Masahiro Tanaka – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. So a rough first inning followed by a blegh 2nd and a 3-run HR in the sixth made this a nightmarish start for Tanaka, who never got settled in. I’m not too worried here, and it may make for a good buy-low, but at the same time this was the Marlins and you really wanted to see Tanaka take advantage. So it goes.
Miguel Gonzalez – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Miguel…No
Andrew Triggs vs. Chicago White Sox – I can understand rolling with Tyson Ross or Ian Kennedy, but I’m going with Triggs, who’s looking good out of the gate.
CC Sabathia vs. Toronto Blue Jays – I have to pick someone, and while this is a DLH and CC isn’t even good, he gets the Jays and I can fathom a 3 ER start where he gets a Win. I’d want to go with Nick Tropeano, but he gets the Sawx and that’s too bad.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Mike Minor vs. Seattle Mariners – The M’s don’t scare me like the Astros and I think Minor can rebound. I’d also consider Sean Newcomb against the Mets if he’s available. Newcomb for strikeout upside, Minor for ratios.
Game of the Day
Carlos Carrasco vs. Jose Berrios – It’s a great test for Berrios while watching Carrasco doing his thing is a lovely way to spend your time.
Astros announcers were pointing out how McCullers really upped his changeup usage this game. Do you think this is something that can help him turn the corner and become more consistent?
Boxscore shows only 6 ks for Price to go along with those 4BB………His BB and K rates on the year are far from ace level, and his numbers have been padded in a sense by going against the Rays 2x. I’m finding it hard to share your confidence/optimism for Mr. #16.
So there were 3 starting pitchers named J. Garcia yesterday. Has that ever happened in MLB before? :)
Thanks for all of the info – my go to site!
Jarlin, Jaime and…? (Junior Guerra is close though!)
Still, J. G…..A is pretty awesome
Tyson Ross is going Friday at Arizona now instead. Do you like him more than Newcomb and Minor on Friday? Love the site
Good morning Nick. I got shafted by Yonny last night, thinking about dropping for the below. Who would be best in a 12 team points keeper league, with no holds?
Devenski (save spec)
VV (not sure why, but I have a feeling he’s due)
Hey Nick, no question today just wanted to tell you that the Matt Moore blurb today is getting put in my top 10. Well played, sir!
With Reynaldo’s hot start, would you try and flip him for say Sonny Gray in a 5×5 Roto league? Seems like a good sell high buy low opportunity… unless you think Reynaldo could end up being a top 30 pitcher by the end of the season???
Likely losing Walker for the year so I need to look elsewhere for pitching help but my wavier wire is thin. Mike Leake, Ryu, Bettis, Wheeler, Velasquez, and Kyle Gibson are the best left. Any suggestions on who would be the best two to take to try and replace the production?
Odorizzi was pretty good until the 6th. Got tired and left fastballs over the plate- Ramirez and Brantley went back to back. You could tell he was getting tired in the 5th in the Lindor at-bat in the 5th when Lindor homered on a hanging breaker. First game in the heat and humidity, he will be fine going forward. Not a stud but good in the 3-5 role on a fantasy team.
Understanding that Pax has an injury history, would you take him for Quintana ROS. You mentioned you wouldn’t take Morton for Quintana due to his injury history.
When Pax is out there he can put up better stats in fewer starts than most. My league is a standard 5×5, season-long roto using QS instead of W. Current SP’s are Klubot, Severino, Bauer, Godley, Corbin, Weaver and Quintana.
I think I might be off the Triggs train after today, or am I bailing on him to quickly? Pretty brutal performance by him against a sub-par offense.