Market Price

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Friday.

David Price vs COL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 74 pitches.

There’s been a lot of talk about David Price as he’s getting stretched out in the Dodgers’ rotation and I think he’s worth taking the time to talk it out after going 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 74 pitches hosting Rockie Road on Friday evening.

First of all, the 3 ER aren’t great, but one out from a PQS despite being limited to 74 pitches is a welcome sight + that’s a sub 1.00 WHIP along the way. On the other hand, his changeup and cutter weren’t exceptional and his heater was down to just 92.8 mph in this one – a full tick lower than what we saw last time out. His next time on the bump will be in Oracle Park, where I’d expect to see ~85 pitches and makes for a true test. Price is doing his best to hold a rotation spot as the Dodgers are likely to acquire at least one arm at the deadline and let’s hope he can regain some heat on the fastball while earned more than 3/30 whiffs on changeups + cutters. You can do this. I think I’d hold for that Giants start and take the chance. If it doesn’t go well, you have your answer.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:

 

Tylor Megill vs TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 78 pitches.

Hey, I was at this game! And absolutely shocked Megill was able to hold the Jays to just two hits. I liked his approach and checked it out later – he kept sliders down-and-away effectively, had some lovely righty-on-righty changeups, and got a bit lucky with four-seamers in the zone. In short, it’s good but not excellent. He gets the Acuña-less Atlanta squad and I think I’m cool sending him out there. Think Toby but slightly higher strikeout upside.

Freddy Peralta vs CWS (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 51 pitches.

Aces gonna go just four frames because the Brewers have begun restricting his innings. Sigh. This means he takes a heavy hit on The List and it’ll be a major one – Casey Mize was removed for going just four frames, after all. Peralta is a major step ahead of him, though, and it’ll be tough to figure out exactly where to put him. I’m thinking the 70s or so (no Win potential + capped ceiling but it’s not guaranteed that he goes just 51 pitches each start) and we can talk about it on Monday.

Kris Bubic vs DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.

Hot dang! Bubic silenced the Streakin’ Tigers (the name of my latest metal band) and did it mostly on the bak on his changeup which…still is a bit too elevated for me to get behind. One day it’ll click and the man will soar. SOAR I TELL YA.

Alex Cobb @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 79 pitches.

Yeah, I’m cool with that despite the 1.60 WHIP. The splitter had whiffs, the curve had strikes. That’s all that matters. Aren’t you forgetting about the fastball? I always try to forget the fastball. Oh. He gets the Athletics next and that’s…fine. It’s another coin flip and likely better than streaming in a 12-teamer.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs NYY (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 25 pitches.

Erod came out of this one early with migraines. Yikes. I hope he’s alright.

Zack Wheeler vs ATL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 111 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Stud Wheeler is just so wonderful and this was a new variety as he tossed 41% sliders for 11 whiffs. I never thought I’d see the day and February 2020 Nick Pollack would be shed a tear if he saw this. It’s the man I always thought he could be…We have reached the final stage, now we just need the fastball to be just as good as it has all year and BAM! There’s a no-hitter.

Lucas Giolito @ MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 91 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Five walks are tough to digest and three strikeouts are far from what you want and that WHIP is near 2.00 and he got the Loss…okay fine. Aces gonna serve an ole Dusty Donut instead as his changeup returned 8% CSW. He just didn’t have it tonight. It happens.

Jorge Lopez vs WSH (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 82 pitches.

Hey, it worked! Kinda! Not really! Why am I exclaiming so much!

Zach Davies vs ARI (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 107 pitches.

Whoa whoa whoa, eight strikeouts?! From Davies?! The man had a sub 15% strikeout rate before this start and somehow – SOMEHOW – the Sneks allowed him to toss nineteen called strikes with his sinker. Yeesh. You know that ain’t sticking and it’s not like his changeup was so overwhelming with 4/27 whiffs. Nope, don’t buy it.

Tyler Mahle vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.

Ehhhh, that’s a tough 1.80 WHIP to swallow and the ERA/strikeouts aren’t quite what we’re used to. Come on Mahle, we know you’re better than this, especially when you can follow The Cardinal RuleBe better.

Steven Matz @ NYM (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.

He allowed a two-run shot to Pete Alonso and settled down nicely, pumped 95/96 mph sinkers, and crossed his fingers that the changeup and curveball did enough. The hook didn’t, but the changeup did and voile, you have yourself a start worthy of a TobyHe gets Boston next and like jumping into shallow water, I wouldn’t take that dive.

Joe Musgrove @ MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 98 pitches.

Okay, we’ll definitely take this. Sure, we wanted more than four strikeouts against the Marlins and he’s down to just 16% fastballs now, but his curveball landed in the zone a ton and that’s cool with me. I still believe he needs to incorporate more heaters in the mix, but what do I know.

Chad Kuhl @ SF (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.

If he was able to go just two more innings, I could justify a PQS as a Streaming Win, but even with those eight strikeouts, it doesn’t cover the poor ratios & no-decision. Streaming Record: 62-45. He did go 52% sliders, though, catalyzing those eight punchouts, though his fastball sat 94 mph and didn’t do a whole lot. He gets the Brewers twice now and I’d look elsewhere first. That fastball just ain’t good enough.

Frankie Montas @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 24 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 102 pitches.

Ohhhhh baby. The slider and splitter were here for the third start in a row, getting featured 60% of the time and fueling this glorious Golden Goal against the Mariners. So what if it was a PQSthe man is dealing right now with 13/33 whiffs on splitters and 53% CSW across 30 sliders. GET PUMPED.

Johnny Cueto vs PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 82 pitches.

I don’t care, the man stole his first career bag and that should make you happy. Fine, a 0.80 WHIP and 7 Ks are excellent from Cueto, even if you have to endure a 5.40 ERA. If you streamed him, be happy and send him back to the wire. You don’t want anything to do with Cueto vs. the Dodgers.

Gerrit Cole @ BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 104 pitches.

Aces gonna…lose it in the fifth with a sac-fly and a two-run shot. Womp womp. Still gave you eight strikeouts though and that’s what aces do – always give you something to salvage.

Jake Odorizzi vs TEX (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.

Blegh. I expected more than 4.2 frames from Odorizzi as he faced the Rangers and his four-seamer earned a lovely 37% CSW on the night, though he elected to turn to 28% splitters for some reason. I’m not sure why and I imagine the heater usage will creep back up next time out against the Mariners. I’m still holding.

Wade LeBlanc @ CIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 82 pitches.

Pitching is Cincy isn’t a fun time and neither is rostering LeBlanc. He’s the anti-Nike – Just don’t do it.

Zach Thompson vs SD (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.

Ehhhh, that’s Thomspon for you. I don’t think any of us really believed he could be incredible against the Padres, but maybe a bit more serviceable than this? His cutter earned a ton of called strikes while his curveball got some outs and landed in the zone effectively, though his changeup and four-seamer weren’t all too great. It’s encouraging seeing the cutter/curve work ala Adam Wainwright and he should be a decent play against the Yankees.

Josh Fleming @ CLE (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 72 pitches.

Blegh. Fleming, you’ve been given so many chances against poor squads to make it happen. And now you earned zero whiffs?! ONE STRIKEOUT?! HAISTFMFWT?! 

Yusei Kikuchi vs OAK (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 95 pitches.

YES. Man, I’m so dang happy to see Kikuchi rebound as he sat 95/96 mph after he was down to 94 mph in his previous two starts. His changeup – yes, CHANGEUP – was the pitch tonight, going 12/29 whiffs, a shocking turn of events when he’s been primarily cutter/slider/four-seamer thus far. So yeah, this is all kinds of cool and while I’m hesitant to believe this new slow ball is here to stay, it at least gives Kikuchi another possible way to produce on a given night. And that’s a lovely thing.

Patrick Corbin @ BAL (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.

What on Earth is happening. Think for a moment, how hard does Corbin throw? 91 mph, 92 on a good day and he sat 93 mph last time which was pretty cool. So what if I told you that he’s now up to 94 mph. And yet, Corbin still can’t buy himself a stud outing. He even had eight slider whiffs, but nay, he still hasn’t gotten the results. I don’t understand. I think this is one of those cases of the results aren’t matching the skills and what do we say when that happens? Trust the results. What, no. That’s absolutely wrong. Trust the skills. SKILLZ. With a Z. I know y’all will call me crazy, but I’m leaning start against the Phillies next time as the velocity looks to be sticking. It’s time to re-start the PC.

J.A. Happ vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.

This didn’t help in the slightest as Happ should be off your radar for a while. It’s not the roll of the dice you want to make anymore.

Chi Chi González @ LAD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.

Yeaaaah, Coors isn’t the entire problem for Chi Chi. I wouldn’t consider him save for the most desperate of streams against the weakest of lineups.

Zach Plesac vs TB (ND) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 99 pitches.

This doesn’t seem fair as Randy Arozarena scored on a little league HR in the second, scoring all three runs of the frame + he allowed a Nelson Cruz long ball. But it’s not like he avoided hard contact and earned a ton of whiffs, either. His slider and changeup have been nothing like their 2020 selves his last two starts and now and I’m holding out for them to return. They should, I just don’t know when. And great, now you have to get the ChiSox + Jays? It ain’t fair, I tell ya. The gamble is still alive – if he has the secondaries, Plesac will succeed – but the risk is plenty heavier if he doesn’t have em. I’d sit for the White Sox and take it from there.

Max Fried @ PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 100 pitches.

Blegh. I don’t think Fried pitched that badly, but he was a little off and not as precise as we normally get from him. There’s a way of thinking about non-aces and I think it fits here: In a given season, every pitcher will have 20% stud outings, 20% poor outings, but it’s the other 60% of games where he can define himself as excellent or poor. Fried is a bit lost in that middle area at the moment, but the ability to be great is still there. Stay with it.

Wily Peralta @ KC (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 85 pitches.

We knew the man was a TEEs and I’m glad those that preached to the Vargas Rule can be purged from their shackles. You’re free now, go eat at a Wendy’s or something. This roundup is not sponsored by Wendy’s. Yet.

Zac Gallen @ CHC (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.

Oh no. He allowed a three-run bomb to Javier Baez in the first on a pretty good 0-0 slider, but he wasn’t able to rein it after that. He didn’t have the command of his changeup and his slider/curve had a moment or two, but that’s it. The good news is that his velocity was a bit higher and I trust he’ll be just fine over time. He’ll get the secondaries in order. He gets the Dodgers next and that’s a tough pill to swallow, but I’d be holding for the Giants twice after that. Keep the faith, y’all. There isn’t a better arm to chase on the wire.

Kolby Allard @ HOU (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.

It’s Dralla. It’s the Astros. This had all the makings of success like using a fork to enjoy your soup.

Game of the Day 

 

Carlos Rodón vs. Corbin Burnes – How many strikeouts are we expecting? 19.5, over/under.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday through Friday.

Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

9 responses to “Market Price”

  1. felixguo97 says:

    Me: Patrick Corbin raised his velo to 94 and got 8 slider whiffs? He must’ve gotten hella whiffs this outing!
    * sees that PC only had 8 total whiffs *
    Me: wtf baseball

    • DB says:

      If everyone just sits slider against him, he’s got nothing. All Corbin’s got is that. Even at 94 his FF is weak.

  2. Jack says:

    It’s gonna make me so sad to drop Peralta when the first of Sale/Sevy comes back. Like crashing your Vette and replacing it with another Vette you just got back from the shop. Sure, you’re happy, but you’d be even happier with two Vettes.

    • DB says:

      I’ve had both of them stashed for a long time, and I won’t shed a single tear to drop most of my guys if they come out of the gates firing bullets. The high tier guys that aren’t at the top have been there to take a fall all season long, and Sale, (at least) is looking flat-out FILTHY right now. He looks like a Left-handed Houck, (LOL!)

      • Jack says:

        Well, yeah. But Peralta was a revelation for a bit there. And next year he’ll be pricey, not like this year where I got him for nothing. Sigh.

  3. DB says:

    Don’t care who answers, but am interested in the thought process:

    Kikuchi or Montas?

    • DB says:

      Put it this way –
      one team, I’ve got:
      Scherzer
      Woodruff
      Ray
      Ryu
      McClanahan
      Nola
      McCullers
      Montas
      Kikuchi
      Houck

      W/ Severino and Sale on the IL….

      Houck and McCullers look like the drops ATM, but I’m open to advice from anyone.

      • DB says:

        Oh, damn! How could I forget that I drafted Ohtani 78th overall? I guess I just forgot because he’s usually my DH in this ESPN league.

        • DB says:

          Schrezer was my 3rd round pick, lol… I started drafting this team like 2020 never happened, then adjusted for ST and beyond.

          I really hope it’s not the same case once MLB and MLBPA lock horns this winter… MLB is finally getting its feet underneath it after years of stupidity. All prayers to a peaceful negotiation for the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

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