(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
Should I be giving more love to Junior Guerra? He went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks today against the Cubs, lowering his ERA to just 2.71, but I’m not convinced. Just 15 CSW in 72 pitches – only 31 overall strikes! and his splitter is still bad. At the same time, he did this against the Cubs and that’s something…but that 2.83 ERA vs. a 4.13 SIERA (entering today) is looking awfully like a TEEs as his whiff rate is also under 10%…a 9.1% HR/FB with a .261 BABIP and 81.8% LOB Rate as well? 41.6% hard contact? Uh-oh. This looks like it’s not going to last. I don’t blame you for rolling with Guerra in the short term, but recognize the risk you’re taking keeping him on your roster. I suggest a short leash once he hits that wall.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Dylan Bundy – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Bundy was given the tough task of facing the Sawx for the third time this season and cruised through eight frames. 29 sliders out of 103 pitches with 6 whiffs, though his heater was down to 91mph in this one. Nevertheless, I’m confident with Bundy moving forward and there’s no reason for you not to be as well.
Carlos Carrasco – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Remember when we were saying that “Carrasco can spin off two gems in a row and those ratios will fall”? Well he’s done that and…okay fine it’s still a 3.90 ERA. But this is great and you should feel great as he earned a Gallows Pole with 17 whiffs. His changeup was dope, his CSW was 36 over 106 (Hallelujah!) and…oh right, the ChiSox. Whatever, be happy.
Steven Wright – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I know there will be people that want to put their faith in Wright. They remember the 3.33 ERA in 2016 (sub 20% K rate and 4.55 SIERA mind you) and maybe, just maybe, his current 1.21 ERA is an indication that he can replicate it in 2018. You know how I feel already, I’m not sure why I’m wasting your time, but I guess I’ll add on that after this one, Wright holds a 4.85 BB/9 on the year. He’s unpredictable and you know I don’t like that. Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Jack Flaherty – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Flaherty got the Padres and was able to rebound after 7 ER in his last two starts. In case you didn’t realize, this was Flaherty’s fifth start in eight where he’s allowed exactly 1 ER, while boasting a K/9 well above 9.00. With Alex Reyes out of the picture and Adam Wainwright on the 60-day DL, it’s wonderful seeing Flaherty nice and comfortable in the St. Louis rotation.
Wade LeBlanc – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Sorry Leblanc, I don’t want to row with you. Maybe I’ll Wade, but not Roe. Nah, probably not even Wade as he’s sporting a ridiculous 87.8% LOB rate to get his 3.00 ERA while his strikeout rate is well under 20% for the year. This screams TEEs.
Joe Musgrove – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Musgrove is kinda killing it and this was a bit of a Careful Icarus as it fell apart in the seventh. I’m still satisfied even with that blemish and now he gets another matchup against the Cubs next. I’m a little worried, but you should be rolling Musgrove out there until he gets a legit misstep.
Jose Quintana – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Sure, I’ll take this Quintana. Even with that low strikeout count, as long as you’re not blowing up teams, that’s a good thing.
Madison Bumgarner – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Come on Bumgarner, we all want you to succeed, not to flounder about like Robert Kelly’s wonderful child. And this was the Marlins, the Marlins! But your cutters were meh, your changeup was bad, and your heaters were hittable as you sat at 90mph. For those of you that think this is the second half of 2017 all over again, I think you’d take a 3.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2018. So at least get there Bummy and we’ll be cool. Hopefully better, but at least let’s reach the top of that mountain.
Wei-Yin Chen – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. People like Chen Music the same way they enjoy nails on a whiteboard. Don’t you mean chalkboard? Nah, I mean watching someone hammer nails into a whiteboard. NOOOO WHY WOULD THEY DO THAT? Exactly.
Patrick Corbin – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I won’t tell you that “you should have sold high” because we don’t know if this really is the turning point of his 90mph catching up to him. But I do wonder if now really is the “uh-oh” moment. Just 25 CSW in 95 pitches as he heaters just weren’t as effective as in the past – too many fastballs over the heart of the plate and they got hit. Slider still dope with 10 whiffs on 37 thrown though., so that’s cool.
Lucas Giolito – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. There’s a word for Giolito: disappointment. Constant, constant disappointment.
Jordan Lyles – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. I dropped Lyles off The List today, but that didn’t stop me from picking him as our Call Boy. Why? Because I didn’t want to cop-out with a “none” again, alright? But this start gave ya nothing but sadness and that’s…um…sad. Streaming Record: 36-24.
Ryan Yarbrough – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Oh thank the lord I have a proper setup to talk about Yarbrough today. It just makes my life easier and I like to think that Kevin Cash is thinking about me when he sent Ryan out there for the opening frame. After this one, it’s a 3.90 ERA with an 8.21 K/9 and there just isn’t much to be excited about. In fact, if you own Yarbrough, it’s probably because you have a max starts count and you’re upset. That’s on me, sorry for being selfish y’all.
Sam Gaviglio – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. I’ve been labeling Gaviglio as a TEEs, though he might not need it after tonight as his ERA jumped more than a full point from 2.51 to 3.66 after this one. That’s what happens when you have just 32.0 frames under your belt. Meanwhile, he still carries a meh 8.16 K/9 and I just don’t want anything to do with it.
Andrew Heaney – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Heaney stahp. Limited to just 52 pitches here, Heaney allowed a trio of HRs, two off bad sinkers to Nelson Cruz, and one with a bad Changeup to Ryon Healy. Blegh. Expect him to rebound next time and try to forget this.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Dereck Rodriguez vs. Miami Marlins – Call me crazy, but I like his stuff and I think facing the Marlins instead of the Nats will make a large difference.
Game of the Day