After hitting the minors for a good while, Joe Ross returned to the Nationals rotation in the heavy rain and produced a sterling 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks line against the Mariners on Tuesday night. The main complaints about Ross have been surrounding his questionable Fastball command and lack of a proper third pitch. Seeing this line will make you think it’s been fixed and Ross is en route to an incredible 2017 campaign. Yeah…not really. I watched a heavy amount of this start and there was plenty of great luck going Ross’ way, like groundballs on poor pitches resulting in double plays, bad Sliders that were swung through purely on being vastly different than what was expected, and a Changeup that induced little confidence. Sure, it was raining a bit and this may have been a cause for some of his struggles, but outside of a good handful of well executed pitches, I didn’t see the polish I was hoping to find from Ross in this outing. I think he should still be owned in all 12 teamers, but I’d sell if someone is buying.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Ervin Santana – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Here we go again. Santana’s last five starts have been: 0 ER, 6 ER, 0 ER, 5 ER, 0 ER. I find it amazing that people can really buy into a guy with a 4.10 FIP, 4.74 xFIP, .136 BABIP, 3.47 BB/9, and 91.5% LOB Rate. Here’s a great reference point: The Almighty Kershaw has a .244 BABIP, and 83.3% LOB Rate. Why do you believe Santana can be better than the best pitcher on the planet or even be equal to it? This is going to stop and you’re not going to like it. To be fair, I’m not saying he’s going to be a waiver wire fodder type. I think he’ll still be rosterable when he crashes, but he is not a Top 30 pitcher. He’s like a Top 75 pitcher. Sell sell sell if you have serious buyers.
Clayton Kershaw – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I feel terrible for Kersh as this was a CGSHO in the bag until a two-base “wild pitch” that scored a runner from second. Man, that’s rough. Sale for #1, right?
Jon Lester – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Well hot damn Lester, way to prove me wrong and give us the start we weren’t expecting you to give us this year. Now, it was the Giants and we all know how blegh they’ve been, but who cares, this is a studly start and I’m giving Lester solid points for this.
Lance Lynn – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Whoaaaaaa Lynn! Was it with it tonight with studly 10 strikeout games?! I didn’t think he had it in him this year, settling more for your middle of the road quality starts than an extremely good outing that could win your week. I don’t buy we’ll see this often at all, but it has to give owners confidence to keep rolling with him over other upside options, right?
Jordan Montgomery – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Thaaannnkkk you Monty. It’s about time you lived up to the peripherals you’ve given us and settled down that walk rate. He gets the A’s next and I want to own him in 12 teamers.
Matt Shoemaker – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. So it isn’t the 8+ K performance that we normally see when Shoe is on a roll, but it certainly constitutes success and we should all be happy about it.
Lance McCullers – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. This is great McCullers, but just five innings? Can you please not get to 96 pitches so fast next time?
Dylan Bundy – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. After Bundy’s disappointing outing against the Tigers, this is a solid rebound, though his Fastball command still isn’t where we want it to be. He hasn’t made the full transformation from a thrower to a pitcher just yet and I’m still selling.
Danny Duffy – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Duffy took care of the Yanks last night as his velocity was above 94mph again. I have Duffy in the Top 20 because how could I not, though I still have my concerns that he’ll hit a wall this year and have a disappointing second half. Obviously I could be totally wrong there and he cruises through the year, but there’s the nagging feeling I have that his durability hasn’t been properly challenged, we saw a velocity drop last year, and he has an injury history.
German Marquez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. The Phils aren’t good and Marquez is good enough to take advantage. Don’t go crazy about this one, it’s just a streaming pick and nothing more. Streamer Record 21.5-16-7.
Matt Harvey – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Ehhhh I wanted to see more with Harvey against the Padres – especially not four walks. There’s talk of his release point being off with a different arm angle, though I’m not buying that his is the cause of it all. There’s a ton at play and I feel like you’re better off chasing other upside options.
Johnny Cueto – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. This is better Cueto. I’m not giving you a major bump now, but this is better.
Jordan Zimmermann – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Was JZ on the Anti-List? He has to be in contention, no? But this is a good outing! Yeah, and Saturdays are awesome but there are six other days in the week.
Alex Cobb – 7.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. That’s 10 ER in the last three starts and this one came against the Angels. I’m still sitting out on the whole Cobb experience.
Carlos Carrasco – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Dear Terry Francona, Thank you so much for bringing Carrasco back out into the seventh so he can walk a batter and tack on another ER – Signed, everyone in QS leagues. I don’t expect this to be his DIPS catching up to him and the wheels to come off after his hot start. Keep riding Carrasco, you’ll need him.
Tyler Glasnow – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. We’re still a good distance away from trusting Glasnow regularly against bad teams. I can’t even see my house from here!
Patrick Corbin – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Congrats on the PQS Corbin, I’m happy someone can find value in this mediocre outing.
Joe Biagini – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. He threw 77 pitches this time out, with his previous season high at 68. Man the Blue Jays are really speeding up this whole “stretch him out” thing! It’s kinda hard at this point to believe 90-100 pitch starts are in his near future at this rate, which means Wins will be super tough to come by and Biagini is a terrible add for QS leagues. Still, with the horrendous situation of the Blue Jays’ rotation, I have to imagine he continues to get the ball, making some upside here with his groundball tendencies and good walk numbers (albeit, not so much here nor last start). Fringe 12 team roster spot, leaning wire for me at the moment.
Rick Porcello – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I don’t think there’s a better time to buy Porcello than now as he holds a 4.35 ERA and 1.44 ERA with a 3-5 record. Under the hood is a 9.00+ K/9, sub 2.00 BB/9, 3.69 SIERA with a .364 BABIP and 68.4% LOB rate. Now, there is a number that does make me super scared – obviously this isn’t a guaranteed steal – which is his 43.2% hard contact rate, though I have to believe he figures that out (his medium contact is a low 40% and soft contact is near his 2016 levels) and pitches closer to his DIPS with the same K/BB numbers. Let’s be honest, I’m sure he’s being considered as “droppable” in some leagues now, so that wart is well worth the cheap price he’ll cost you.
Jimmy Nelson – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. Tough to see this after Nelson gave us 16 strikeouts in his last two starts, but let’s be honest. This is closer to what we should be expecting from Nelson across the season.
R.A. Dickey – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Dickey told me that his cousin’s best friend was Justin Timberlake. It was actually Justin Jeffre. Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Jose Urena – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Here’s to hoping you didn’t trust Urena’s hot start and ran with him against the A’s. Please.
Andrew Cashner – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. This is why we Cashed Out, y’all.
Dylan Covey – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Don’t Covey Thy Dylan.
Amir Garrett – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Until that command gets figured out, I really hate endorsing Garrett. I know he’ll have a good game or two – heck I’m sure a few back-to-back even – but man is it risky each time out.
Jesse Hahn – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Speaking of Fastball command, Hahn threw 51 pitches across 2.0+ innings (he allowed a single to start the third) and he’s far away from where he needs to be to warrant a roster spot…
Zach Eflin – 6.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. …and with Eflin, it’s really far away.
Jhoulys Chacin – 0.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. Chacin will do well when Jhoulyst expect it.
Christian Bergman – 4.0 IP, 10 ER, 14 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. This is the kind of start that makes me want to create the opposite of the Minimalist Score where I keep track of who allows the most total ER, Hits, and Walks across a start. I’ll call it the WHERST (Walks, Hits, ER, STart). Correct me if I’m wrong, but a WHERST score of 26 from Bregman here has to be the current leader, no?
Tyler Chatwood vs. Philadelphia Phillies – The Rockies don’t have a bad staff when they pitch outside of Coors, okay?
Mike Clevinger vs. Cincinnati Reds – He’s still owned in under 10% of leagues and will get at least one more turn in the rotation. Let’s do this.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Zack Godley vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Even with his struggles against the Brewers last time out, I think this start is worth your while.