So last week I dropped Jason Vargas ten spots after his one bad starts and I got angry comments on both sides of it. One was “after just one bad start after a season of killing it, he drops ten spots?!” and the other was “Why is he still ranked so high?! He’s such a prime regression candidate!” ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. The thought behind it was that no one in their right mind would have been dropping Vargas before the first bad start and you have to give him some benefit of the doubt that he could recover. Still, it could have been the sign of a trend and I hate dropping guys 20+ spots in one week, and I’d rather shift slightly up/down each week to prevent the mega swing of the hammer. Well, instead of rebounding, Vargas continued the free fall with a line of 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks against the Tigers. I think it’s safe to drop him. Yeah, he will have good starts ahead, but Vargas is really just a good streamer now instead of someone you want constantly. I could see him as a Toby and in some 12-teamers you still want to hold, but if there are guys on your wire like Mike Clevinger or Luis Castillo, etc. then I see zero reason to hold Vargas.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Marcus Stroman – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I’ll take this from Stroman against the Red Sox. His 7th inning got a bit more tense than it should have, and I would have liked him to have been pulled earlier, you know Careful, Icarus n all.
Jon Lester – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Hey, nicely done! Still a bit worried about your consistency but this certainly helps. I think you’re going to stick around the 20s.
Adalberto Mejia – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Be careful with Mejia, he’ll end up going on rampage when he finds out you dropped him in your league. Is this a Medea joke. You don’t seem amused. Meh. Please clap.
Jordan Zimmermann – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Blame it on the Royals. Seriously, I’m not buying Jay-Z is back, again.
Bryan Mitchell – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Mitchell was called upon given the Yankee double header and Pineda getting TJS. It’s possible we’ll see him again if the Yanks go into six-man, but there’s no reason to think he sticks for now, nor would you want to be chasing it if he does.
Jake Odorizzi – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Odorizzi was making it super easy for owners to let go for the last two months and now I’m sure owners will be wondering if it’s time to get back on the train. I sure am not. This is essentially his ceiling and who knows how often it’ll show up. No thanks.
Stephen Strasburg – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I feel kinda bad that Bumgarner was slotted over him last week, but we can’t forget that Stras has a three inning, 3 ER game just last time out. Almost forgot, Strasburg earned today’s Gallows Pole with 20 whiffs because of course he did.
Chris Tillman – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. You can’t spell Win with Tillman. So the O’s actually won but Tillman got the ND as Tillman continues being someone with an apparently bad floor.
Matt Moore – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Hey, Moore did something good! Not as good as Brosnan but still good! Did you even watch Die Another Day? Let’s forget about that one.
Chad Kuhl – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Kuhl story bro. It is interesting to see the Ks emerge given his velocity, but he doesn’t even warrant the PEAS label as everything else isn’t all too good.
Brent Suter – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. This was bound to happen Suter or later. I meant to respond to a few comments about Suter as a two-start arm this week as I put a sit for both, including this one. I just don’t think he’s that great of a pitcher and there are other arms I’d stream before him. It’s certainly possible he gives you a decent outing against the Phils, but I don’t see him as a streamer option in 12 teamers.
Julio Teheran – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. This game was played at home so he was an obvious bench. Not because he was playing the Nats, nah, the home park is what did him in. Alright, I’ll rein it back, but I really hope you’re not considering starting him in L.A. against the Dodgers next time out just because it’s on the road.
Adam Wainwright – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhh I guess this is fine but it’s not making me get on the Waino train anytime soon.
Andrew Cashner – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. I Cashed Out a long time ago and so should you.
Daniel Gossett – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s not a Gosse egg but you’ll take it if you ran with Daniel against the Rays. I have little love for Gossett but it’s not out of the question for him to perform like this against decent matchups.
German Marquez – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Nine Ks in Coors is always a pleasant sight to behold, though it was the Padres…and a meh ERA/WHIP…I can’t say I’m too high on Marquez. I think there are better options in 12-teamers, but hey! Enjoy the Ks if you ran with this.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks. It was a DLH situation for E-Rod and those four walks aren’t a pretty sight, but the 8 Ks are definitely welcome and enough to give me the confidence to bring him back into my lineup now. Super curious to see where he is against the the Mariners next Monday.
Josh Tomlin – 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. This is a tough bet to make consistently (is this even that great?) and I’m kinda hoping he gets the Axe to allow Clevinger to stick around. Preferably the Anarchy fragrance.
Tom Koehler – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Yep, that’s Koehler alright.
Lance McCullers Jr. – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Dude, what has gotten into you?! 12 ERs in your last three games with just 14 Ks after earning 8 apiece in your previous four…His Fastball has been pretty terrible across this outings, which might be a consistent problem – it was one of my worries in the preseason – as batters will sit dead-red on the pitch to avoid his excellent Curveball. We’ll see if McCullers can bounce back, I think he can but I have some concern here.
Zack Wheeler – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. I’ve given up on Wheeler this year – his control just isn’t going to be where we want it to be – but I can imagine him being a post-hype sleeper next year. FINALLY a proper Young Gun.
Jerad Eickhoff – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks. Okay, so I definitely deserve the Loss here, but eight Ks! That’s two straight eight strikeout games out of the gate after his DL stint and I’m not turning a blind eye to it. The walks are not his M.O. though and holds me back a bit. And of course the 5 ER but whatever. Streamer Record 47-34-12.
Scott Feldman – 1.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Feldman Schmeldman.
Ariel Miranda – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Remember the talk in June when Miranda was on a hot streak of six straight 2 ER or fewer starts? Since June 10th, that’s a 5.75 ERA with a 5.25 K/9 and a…BABIP of .202. Yep, his FIP is even worse at 6.78. Ho boy.
Luis Perdomo – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks. Perdomo went to Coors, can’t say we expected this to be much different.
Today’s Streamer
Sean Newcomb vs. Chicago Cubs – Once again, there’s little be found on the wire for a good stream, though we might get a better idea when rotations solidify in the next few days. Best shot out there is Newcomb’s K upside against the Cubs as he’s finally pitching against a team not named the Astros or Nationals.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
NONE – There are only three legit choices today and I don’t want any of them. Kevin Gausman against the Rangers is the most plausible, but he’s coming off 13 ER in two starts (albeit a 12/1 K per BB as well). Mike Montgomery has been struggling and I don’t want to start him even if it is the Braves. Then there’s Nick Pivetta, which might be the most logical choice, but I have my fears going against the top-heavy Marlins offense.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Jhoulys Chacin vs. San Francisco Giants – Okay I hate this but I don’t want to go two days in a row without a streamer. The only other choice is Seth Lugo against the Cards and he has been pretty poor lately so I have to go Chacin. This is dumb. Don’t do it.
Game of the Day
Robbie Ray vs. Sal Romano – Okay this is kinda awesome but the joke aside, I have some intrigue with Romano and there aren’t too many good games on both sides of the field today.
I am trying to remember… was Perdomo the flavor of the month at one point this year? I am thinking he (and his elite GB rate) was, but it seems like it was years ago.
He kinda was? About a month into the season his Hard/Soft contact was great with an elite groundball rate and budding strikeouts. Not like the current array of Spice Girls we have.
Dealt Vargas for the Dirty Cheerleader + Danny Salazar. I suppose if you’re advocating that Vargas is in the drop-zone then this deal was good for me!
PS: on that note, Danny Salazar in his last AAA went 6IP 3H 3BB 9K 0ER. (that almost ~16% SwStr% gives me hope he can salvage the 2nd half). If he gets his mental game fixed and can find the zone, where do you think his ceiling/floor is in the 100? #25/Unranked…
Awesome! That deal works great for you.
I’m not sold that Salazar will ever reach his true Ceiling of Top 25 or so. Floor is Unranked given injury history and horrific walk/IPS/Hits per 9 numbers.
I imagine if he is back in the rotation and gives us a good start out of the gate, he’ll be treated like another Spice girl around the 40s with room to grow and plenty of room to fall.
Been riding Vargas but obv not thrilled now. I have lots of choices on the wire: Hendricks (who I had and dropped a few weeks ago), Clevinger, Castillo, Ed Rodriguez.
Thoughts here?
Castillo, Erod, Clevinger, Vargas, Hendricks in that order.
Yeah but did you watch the game? The ump was squeezing Vargas really bad – he was not getting any of the calls on close pitches even when the K zone showed that they were obvious strikes. If he gets an ump that will call a fair strike zone, he should return to form.
None of those players you mention are even close to being available in our league and have not been for some time.
Don’t be so quick to rag on Vargas.We know he’s not the 2nd coming of Sandy Koufax. He had no business being rated as a high end two start choice this week, albeit both starts at home. The Tigers and the White Sox mash LHP. So expect another beat down for Vargas when he faces the Pale Hose on Sat. By that time, he should be a drop in many leagues. Might wanna caution your loyal readers to take a shot on Vargas after the White Sox get through manhandling him.
I had him all year after I was an owner of Duffy and him the past two years. He was WAY too good the first half but until the last two starts you didn’t see the regression. Hell still end the season with a 3ish ERA and a few more wins but now the whiffs are gone from the beginning of the season. Plus since his ERA was like 1.50 the first half, hell have a 4.50 the second half just to end at 3.00, with like a 6-7k/9.
Same as hitters that hit .200 the first half but end the year at .280 (aka Kyle Seager) they still have to hit 380 the second half to get there! This is just the oppo.
Is McHugh worth a DL stash?
Nope, I have little faith in McHugh for the season ahead.
After that first bomb outing from Vargas I could see the writing on the wall. I flipped him for JSchoop last week. Pretty stoked on a few trades Ive made. Mostly because of following all the PitcherList posts I’ve had a good feel.
P.S. Also flipped Scherzer, CarGo and Tulo for Paxton, Khris Davis, and Lindor.
When I click on the Pitcher List, the accompanying article indicates that it’s from July 3 – is that the most recent update?
Sorry about that! The sidebar has been updated with the latest edition: http://pitcherlist.com/the-list-710-ranking-the-top-100-starting-pitchers-every-monday/
Thanks – just recently ran across your website, but I”m a big fan!
Thanks! Glad you found the site and enjoy what we do.
FYI: An article on Big Time Atlanta Sports called the Big Squeeze written mid-June explains the following – At home against left-handed hitters Teheran has an 11.21 ERA, .324 BAA, 4.1 HR/9, 7.6 BB/9 and a 28.6% HR/FB%. On the road against left-handed hitters Teheran has a 2.19 ERA, .237 BAA, 1.1 HR/9, 4.4 BB/9, and a 9.4% HR/FB%. Heat maps show that Teheran is not getting the outside sixth of the plate at all when pitching at Sun Trust Park. Strikes in the outside zones are being called balls forcing him to move inside. Last night against the Cubs he walked Lester, Contreras, Rizzo and Heyward. All but Contreras are lefties. Mike Foltynewicz has the same issue when pitching at home. I don’t have Teheran on my team, hate the Braves (Reds fan), and wouldn’t start him in LA either but maybe its not just a correlation.
Strasburg is a top 5 pitcher when healthy. Always was. Always is. Always will be.