I call many pitchers a TEEs, standing for The End of and ERA, suggesting that their super good ERA is bound to come crashing in the near future. Jose Urena, despite going 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks and holding a 3.36 ERA over his last 13 starts, is one of those guys. I’m sure there are a good amount of owners that are swearing by the Marlins’ hurler but let’s dive into what he’s done in this 13 game stretch. Just three starts over four strikeouts, holding a 5.6 IPS, a .236 BABIP (around .285 xBABIP in these starts), with an scFIP around 4.50 in that time. So he’s barely striking out batters, not surviving long enough for Quality Starts, and should be allowing plenty more runs and baserunners. Yeah, this is a bad idea for a 12-teamer.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Clayton Richard – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton! Or is it…No this is definitely the wrong one. What’s interesting about Richard is that he’s had seven starts of 1 ER or fewer…and seven starts of 5 ER of more. That’s a Harvey Dent-esque coin flip there.
John Lackey – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I think Lackey has figured it out, throwing a ton more Sliders in his last five starts, rendering a 9.22 K/9 and 3.29 ERA…but that’s not fair at all. It’s a sub 6.0 IPS, 3.62 BB/9, and 4.74 xFIP as well, which is on the complete other side of encouraging. It’s outcouraging. Discouraging. Mine’s better. If you’re struggling in a 12-teamer, Lackey could help as he gets the Reds, Phils, Braves, Pirates next. I’m in for all of it.
Lance Lynn – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Is this driving anyone else up the wall? It’s just so boring every time out and he’s managing to keep that ERA total still super low. It’s crazy. A 1.93 ERA and 4.76 xFIP over his last ten starts crazy. And just a 6.08 K/9. Ya’ll know why I’m against it for obvious reasons, but that’s nine Quality Starts in ten games and I can’t deny that he’s helping. I wonder when the wild ride will come to end.
Charlie Morton – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks. Morton needed a big start like this one – especially in Arizona – for us to get back on the hype train. Now he gets a cushy schedule the rest of the way and I want to be all apart of it.
Matt Cain – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. So Cain goes on the DL, then returns and strikes out seven batters while walking one. Yeah, that’s not Cain. IT’S AN IMPOSTER.
Jon Gray – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Well well well. A 14% whiff rate after hitting the 10% mark just once in his previous seven starts. You can thank 37 Sliders across 101 pitches, holding a 27% whiff rate on the slide piece. That’s the Gray we’ve missed so much – and he did this in Coors! It’s encouraging, let’s see him do it against a team not named the Braves.
Robert Gsellman – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. I kid you not, I saw a TV playing this game out of the corner of my eye and was super confused as to why they were showing deGrom’s game again. Anyway, Gsellman came back from his DL stint and was just as boring as you remembered him being. I hope he puts it together for a run in the final weeks, but I don’t want to bet on that now.
Ricky Nolasco – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Sure, whatever Nolasco.
Carlos Rodon – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Is this okay? I think it is, I’m just not used to seeing four walks and four strikeouts from Rodon and being serviceable. This was against the Dodgers, which awards him bonus points of course. Doesn’t really change much in the scope of it all as he sits at #36.
Marcus Stroman – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. This looks a lot like a Stroman start, save for an extra strikeout or two. Keep on keepin’ on.
Yu Darvish – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. A VPQS can be fine when starting Darvish…BUT NOT WITH TWO STRIKEOUTS. That’s just cruel. Why. WHY.
Jacob Faria – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. I want to say Santa Faria…but I can’t since this doesn’t help you out. Like at all. But three strikeouts! Pfffft, Rex Brothers had that in one inning of relief but you don’t see me adding him. That’s a terrible argument. YOU’RE A TERRIBLE ARGUMENT. Anyway, for those that have wanted a follow up to the awesome Faria Breakdown written by Ian Post, it’s coming and the entire staff is really pumped about it.
Jaime Garcia – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. This is the same thing as Faria except you probably didn’t roll with Garcia. Low expectations = little disappointment.
Jimmy Nelson – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. His full line looked a lot worse with a pair of unearned runs thrown his way, though I’m sure many saw the first three innings and started to wonder what happened to Nelson. I honestly don’t think anything is really that bad. Still a ton of strikes, plenty of Ks and a few things didn’t go his way. He’s fine y’all, maybe under Nola next week, but still great for your squad.
Nick Pivetta – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks. Yeah that ERA/WHIP isn’t great, but 11 Ks! That has to constitute a win right? Streamer Record 63-45-14.
Tanner Roark – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. What you get is a Quality Start with a low WHIP. If that’s what you wanted, good for you. If not, I wouldn’t own Roark. He didn’t even get a cheap Win!
Taijuan Walker – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Walker has had three starts in August. Walker is holding an scFIP of 5.16 in those starts. Can we call him a PEAS? I kinda want to.
Paul Blackburn – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Blackburn reeling in the dead of night…
Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. So the King of Really Good was an extremist yesterday, which is so not his style. That’s three starts of 3 ER or more, though the Ks are still alive – he’s holding a 9.73 K/9 in his last nine starts – but I’ve expected a little better against teams like the Padres and Brewers (the other game was the Tigers, but 8.0 IP and 3 ER with a sub 1.00 WHIP. No faults there). He gets his toughest matchup for the end of the year against the Dodgers next, but should be smooth sailing after. I could even see him doing well in that one and I wouldn’t be too cautious.
Danny Duffy – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. 12 ER in his last three starts…but 8 Ks in each of them. That may be because he played the Mariners, White Sox, and Athletics, and in this one it wasn’t about the whiffs but 17 called strikes across 101 pitches. His Slider was the big story last time with a usage rate north of 50%, but here we’re back to 25% levels and things look…kinda normal. Good to see the Ks up, but I think that lowers with the ERA in future starts. We’ll see.
Marco Gonzales – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Gonzales is a Young Gun through and through. There could be something down the road in Seattle, but for now I wouldn’t bother.
Cole Hamels – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. Um. Hamels. Hey. So you were doing really well with that Changeup and the Astros were no problem for you.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. It was a tough second inning for Eduardo where he got Singled Out, and I think he pitched well in this outing despite the 4 ER. I’m sold for his next start against the Indians and beyond.
Anibal Sanchez – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Yep, that’s Anibal alright. I think I like the routine of allowing one of these and one of the “sure whatevers” a night. Oh snap, he got the “yep” treatment!
Homer Bailey – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 10 Ks. 10 Ks and 16 whiffs en route to Bailey’s first (and maybe last) Gallows Pole victory. So he allowed an early grand slam to Rizzo that accounted for the massive ER total…and he walked five batters and allowed six other hits…but 10 Ks! I want to be able to just write off Homer Bale completely and move on with life, but I have to question if we’ll see him blossom in September.
Ubaldo Jimenez – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Ahhhhh there he is! Welcome back duder, we hope you had fun but we know who you really are.
Mike Foltynewicz – 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Ouch Folty, I know it was Coors and no one was really expecting you to do well, but…yeah this hurts.
Today’s Streamer
Edwin Jackson vs. San Diego Padres – Yeah, this is crazy. It’s EJax! But it’s also the Padres and he’s been surprisingly serviceable for the Nats in his five starts + a cheap way to earn a Win.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Chris Stratton vs. Philadelphia Phillies. I just finished up my second article over at FanGraphs talking about Stratton (it’s why I’m a bit behind today, sorry!) and I’m on board for the short term, especially against a weak team like the Phils.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Jered Eickhoff vs. San Francisco Giants – The clear choice here as Eickhoff has looked much like his 2016 self since returning from the DL.
Game of the Day
Aaron Nola vs. Jeff Samardzija – OH SNAP IT’S NOLA.
Still hang on to Faria? He’s been underwhelming to say the least lately but there isn’t much on the wire to replace him
Strikeouts of 8, 9, 7 prior to this one, and it wasn’t even all that bad of a start. I’d hold Faria.
I’m sure it’ll be clearer after McHugh vs the A’s, but right now, would I be correct in saying it’s: Morton, Rodriguez, Lopez, Cast, McHugh, Rodon, Clev? It’s just the way you talk about Rodon and his #36 ranking insinuates meh-ness (good K’s, OK walks, great ERA here and there) in that whole tier. Are all of these guys more of the same or what? I already have Klub, Nelson, Taillon, Fulmer (droppable soon??), Happ, Cast, Rod, and McHugh. Rodon, Lopez, and Morton are still on the wire, but should I just stop before I hurt myself or what?
I’d say they are all super comparable and I’d play the schedule as much as possible. Rodriguez is a little more of a question mark and Castillo only takes a hit because of his inevitable shutdown. Lopez we need to see more of, Rodon could break down at any moment. It’s all super close, though I’d say Clev is the clear odd one out.
I think we need to give Fulmer a little more time before giving him the axe.
It’s definitely Moore starting for SF tomorrow and not Stratton. Any other Saturday suggestions? Eickoff is owned. Odorizzi vs SEA? Worley vs NYM? or Blach vs PHI?
Check that. Odorizzi just addded by someone else.
Not really unless you want to make a deal with the devil (Hellickson). Otherwise, I hate JC Ramirez, Blach, Montero, etc.
Does anyone have any idea when Berrios and Clevinger get their next start?
Need to drop one when Kershaw comes back. Thoughts?
James Paxton
Michael Fulmer
Danny Salazar
Luis Severino
Carlos Martínez
Carlos Carrasco
It would be Fulmer.
Although I agree with your Urena assessment in the long run, I’m tempted to hold onto him in the short term as it looks like he is in line to face the Phils and SD in his next two turns. Thoughts on those starts?
I still think it’s a larger gamble than most are giving credit. He’s faced a few easy teams in the recent stretch and the number suggest a bit more luck than skill.
Not the worst option out there, but still risky in a 12-teamer.