Is It Legit: Joc, Wong, and Three Hot Mariners

Welcome to Is It Legit, where each Tuesday I’ll be doing what every fantasy analyst tells owners not to do and recklessly diving into small sample sizes from the previous week to make a rash judgment on how useful a player will be rest of season. We’re still technically not even one week into the 2019 season, but weekly waiver claims have been processed for most leagues, and the five batters below each saw nice jumps in ownership percentages. Let’s grab our gavel and lay the judgment down.

 

Domingo Santana, OF Seattle Mariners

 

Case for Legitness: 36 PA, 3 HR, 2 SB, 1.144 OPS

Argument: It’s barely April, and Domingo Santana is already halfway to his 2018 marks in home runs and RBI. There really wasn’t anywhere to go but up after a pitifully bad 2018 that saw Santana go from a starter for the Brewers, to a bench bat, to the minors, to traded out of Milwaukee. He’s clearly out to put last season behind him, knocking a grand slam in the opening series and adding two more taters and stolen bases since then. Santana’s always had a high propensity for the swing-and-miss, but so far he’s managed to lower his strikeout rate to an acceptable 25%, supported by a six-point drop in his swinging strike rate. But perhaps the best sign of an emerging breakout is that Santana’s actually getting the ball in the air. After hitting nearly twice as many grounders as flies over the past two seasons, he’s currently hitting just 16% of his batted balls on the ground. I wouldn’t expect him to rock a 60% fly ball rate all season, but there are early signs here of a mechanical adjustment or launch angle shift. I’ll be Going Deep on Friday to see if we can identify what those changes may be, but for now I’m simply buying.

Verdict: LEGIT

 

Joc Pederson, OF Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Case for Legitness: 22 PAs, 3 HR, 8 R

Argument: As the ever-eloquent George W. Bush once said: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me, you can’t get fooled again.” If you’ve played fantasy baseball for more than two seasons, it’s easy to see where I’m going with this: Pederson has had some hot March/April streaks in the past, most notably in 2015 and 2016. In the end though, Joc always ends up being Joc. So far, he’s off to a vintage start by blasting three yaks into the grandstands and adding a double across 21 PAs. It’s nice to see, but a hot streak in the beginning of a season is the same as a hot streak in the dog days of August. Pederson’s batted ball profile isn’t looking much different than it always does, and his 60% HR/FB rate shows he’s clearly just had a few good hits that went yard. The Dodgers get a lot of grief for platooning guys, but with Pederson’s career .581 OPS against southpaws there’s really no reason he should start against lefties. In the end, I think 2019 Joc will look a lot like every other version of Joc. So, should you rush to the wire and risk getting fooled a third time, or load the chopper and make it rain?

Verdict: NOT LEGIT

 

Tim Beckham, SS Seattle Mariners

 

Case for Legitness: 31 PAs, 3 HR, 11 H,  8 R

Argument: Every fantasy season has its guys who go gangbusters for a week or two before settling into who we expected them to be. Usually they fly up the “Most Added” lists before inevitably crashing back to earth once they eventually become themselves again. Beckham is on course to be one of this year’s crop, riding a wave of six extra-base hits and a silly small-sample-juiced 319 wRC+to bump his ownership percentage by 53% in ESPN leagues. I don’t have to state the obvious that Beckham’s current streak isn’t sustainable, but there are some slightly encouraging signs. He’s showing some discipline at the plate, swinging at just 40% of pitches and just 22% of pitches outside the zone, down from the 30+% through his career. Still, he’s swinging and missing at a lot of pitches and there doesn’t seem to be any change in his batted ball profile from his 2018 and 2017 seasons. He didn’t hit the ball particularly hard in 2018, with a below-average exit velocity, so it’s hard to say he’s due for a breakout. Ultimately, I’m passing on Beckham as a waiver wire add for now, but I’ll be keeping any eye to see if there are indications that the plate discipline changes stick. If that’s the case, he’ll be interesting in the second-third of an improved Mariners lineup. It’s not that he’ll be bad otherwise, but he’s not someone who needs to be owned in over 50% of leagues.

Verdict: NOT LEGIT

 

Kolten Wong, 2B St. Louis Cardinals

 

Case for Legitness: 20 PAs, 3 HR, 2 SB

Argument: Any player who has multiple swipes and long balls in less than a one-week span deserves a look, so consider this due diligence. Wong hit his third home run of the season as I’m writing this, so maybe he’s sensing some of the bad juju I’m about to put in the airbut despite the hot start there’s not a ton to like about the Cardinals’ 28-year-old second baseman. His career triple-slash of .257/.327/.385 says more than any advanced analysis would, but Wong’s Statcast page is the analytics equivalent of a sad trombone noise. In 2018, he ranked well below the rest of the league in average exit velocity, and his expected slugging that season just bums me out too much to actually type. Even the stolen bases this season seem fluky, as Wong ranked in the bottom third of the league in average sprint speed last year and was caught stealing five times in just 11 attempts. So far this season, he’s hitting extra fly balls and gotten lucky with a few that have cleared the yard, but even this hot streak comes in spite of a 50% soft contact rate. Sad trombone indeed.

Verdict: NOT LEGIT

 

Ryon Healy, 1B Seattle Mariners

 

Case for Legitness: 31 PA, 2 HR, 8 2B

Argument: Healy has averaged about 25 homers and 75 RBI over the past two seasons, yet has still managed to disappoint fantasy owners. Most of that disappointment rides on his inability to get on base, with a miniscule walk rate and mediocre strikeout rate conspiring to limit Healy’s contributions to counting stats and batting average. Essentially, he’s been a one-and-a-half category player, capable of contributing in homers and kind of contributing in RBInot exactly 100% ownership material. That said, there’s some intrigue here. First, Healy’s expected stats show he was extremely unlucky last season, with the differential between his xwOBA of .320 and actual wOBA of .296 ranking him among the 30 unluckiest batters in the league last year. Last season’s .257 BABIP was well below his career .303, supporting the theory that bad luck may have factored into his .235 average. With the Mariners currently rocking over seven runs per game in the season’s early going, there should be plenty of opportunities for Healy to generate runs if he hangs in the top two-thirds of the order. There’s potential here for a 65/30/85/.270 line, which is roster-worthy in leagues where guys like C.J. Cron, Eric Hosmer, or Trey Mancini are owned.

Verdict: LEGIT

 

Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire

Kevin Dalby

Kevin lost his first fantasy league because of misplaced confidence in Xavier Nady. Ever since then, he's been diving deep into advanced metrics. He lives in Knoxville with his wife and two daughters, and sadly roots for the Vols. His walk-out song is "Dead, Drunk and Naked" by Drive-By Truckers. Follow him on Twitter @KevinDalby.

sdf

Comments


Sean

Kevin, I respectfully disagree on Joc. Pitcherlist is meant for a Yahoo! or ESPN style 12-team league with daily transactions and a bench. If this is your league than Joc is an absolute differnece maker. Add Joc, if he’s in your league’s free agency, start him when they play righties—as his OPS is almost certainly higher vR than half of your starting OFs and bench him against lefties. It’s very simple. Sure his Sub 550 OPS vL is bad. But his last three years OPS vR is .872. That plays as a #1 bench player in a daily league.

Kevin Dalby

Thanks for reading! My biggest knock on Pederson here is that we haven’t learned anything about him that we didn’t already know, but his ownership percentage has jumped by 41% in ESPN leagues based off his fast start. You’re right that he’s ownable and useful in 12 teamers with daily lineups, but that was the case before his start to the season. The jump in ownership is probably correcting some leagues where he should have been rostered anyway, but folks expecting anything different than what he’s always been won’t get that.

Also, I’ll rewrite my opening statement some next week to help contextualize what the Gavel of Legitness™ is trying to indicate. Since I’m making a black and white judgment call, I’m trying to base things more on whether we should reconsider how we value a player rather than just say whether they should be owned, which is obviously really subjective to each league.

Chelsa Bailey

Hi Kevin,

Great article! New to Pitcherslist.com. Been playing fantasy baseball for 11 years, I’m the ONLY female that competes and have won my league 4 times. Haven’t won in recent years and I’m ready to reclaim my crown!!!

Playing in 2 leagues this year. I’ve lost Andujar, Murphy and Wendle to the DL. Need to fill in at Util. Currently in 4th place. Players currently available: C. Frazier, C. Stewart, C. Walker, Healy, A. Jones, Schoop, A. Frazier, Bruce & DeShields. Would need to drop someone to add 1 of these guys. Whom would you recommend I add and drop?

10 team, roto, 6×6, keeper league with Runs, RBI, HRs, AVG, OPS, SBs, Wins, ERA, Ks, WHIP, K/BB & Saves+Holds as categories… Keepers are: Trout, Acuna, Treinen & Andujar.

C – Mejia
1B- Rizzo
2B – McNeil
SS- Tatis
3B – Machado
CI – Y. Diaz
MI – Shaw
OF – Trout, Acuna Dahl & Eloy
U – K. Marte & ???
DL – Andujar, Murphy & Wendle
SP – Bieber, Burnes, Gibson, Lucchesi, Mikolas, Strahm, Stripling & Woodruff
RP- Treinen, Smith, Colome, Pressly & Stammen
NA – F. Whitley

Please advise.

Thanks,
Chelsa

Kevin Dalby

Thank you! Four flags in 11 years is quite the feat for anybody, so great job. In an OPS league I’m adding Bruce out of the bunch, then Healy. Both will play every day and hit some long ones, and Bruce can actually take some walks too. I’d be plenty comfortable dropping Gibson in a 10-teamer.

I’d also take a flier on Healy over Diaz, who I don’t think has much upside regardless of his walk rate.

JS

What about Wong’s increase to his launch angle and Barrel %? Both support skills growth (granted very small sample size).

Kevin Dalby

I think you answered your own question with the point on sample size. At this point barrel rates don’t mean much – Wong’s got a 14% barrel rate but in terms of real numbers that equals out to all of 2. As of last night he’s tied with Zack Greinke in that department. It’s just way too small of a sample to say Wong has made an improvement to his quality of contact, and even with his well-hit homers his average exit velocity is down from last year (which is also a small sample). The launch angle is worth keeping an eye on, but don’t be shocked if it doesn’t stick.

Leave a Comment


Your email address will not be published.