(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
We really need to talk about Dylan Bundy who couldn’t survive the Mets via 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks Wednesday night. The Mets. I think I’ve been giving Bundy too much of a discount for his struggles against the Red Sox and Yankees and it’s time for me to let him fall down more on The List. I think he can be an effective two-pitch pitcher via a 92mph fastball and constant sliders, but he won’t become a consistent arm until he remasters his changeup. This pitch returned a near 10 pVal in 2017, but his command of it has fallen considerably in 2018, with its ISO jumping to .323 with a .306 BAA to boot. It’s caused him to lower its usage down from 14% to 9.5% and while that’s a smart move given its terrible results, he needs to get it back to being a big part of his approach. It’s the perfect complement to his fastball/slider mix and until he gets there, I’m completely fine swapping Dundie – I want to call him that as he struggles, think a man whose biggest accomplishment is winning a Dundie – with a streamer off the wire. It’s a short season to go, play the matchups and all your options.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Brett Anderson – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. So close from scoring a 7 MS score – just one out away! – says everything you need to know about Brett. Please don’t chase this, seriously. Don’t.
Austin Gomber – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. That’s back-to-back shutout starts from Gomber, who got through this one with weak contact and pounding strikes with heat. His slider earning 14/26 SNIP worked as well, though I’m surprised his deuce didn’t do more work with just 1/18 CSW…alright two were called balls that clearly landed at the bottom of the zone, so I’m alright with this. I think he’s worth an add in 12-teamers – expect him on The List next week – but he could be ousted from the rotation soon as Michael Wacha returns from rehab. Monitor this.
Derek Holland – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Way to bounce back…kinda? Seven strikeouts and 0 ER give me a win for the stream, but his control was far from solid and got him knocked out of the game before finishing the fifth. That’s over two baserunners per inning and he still escaped with a goose egg. It’s not as pristine as the previous month, but I think we keep going with Holland. Streaming Record: 73-39.
Mike Leake – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I have to hand it to Leak, a 3.90 ERA with 6.20 IPS is a recipe for a Quality Start machine, returning one in each of his last starts. Thing is, I talk moreso about standard Win leagues and there…well a 15% K rate with that ERA normally doesn’t add up to much production. He’s as bordering of a Toby as they come and if you’re a guy that needs a little more stability ratio-wise over strikeouts, then go ahead.
Felix Pena – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Hey, it’s the strikeout upside we all want from Pena! He didn’t had a double digit whiff game in any of his last four starts and here was a marvelous 14.4% rate. Too bad I need to say Blame it on the Padres though. I’m still skeptical he’s worth a stream moving forward.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. It was a super DLH given how long Ryu was out for and the fact that he isn’t this good. I wonder how many starts he’ll actually see before getting a hip contusion from a strong gust of wind. He gets the Cardinals next week and I think he’s worth the add for that and the Rangers after. Just don’t expect it to last.
Jose Urena – 0.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. Urena threw the first pitch at Ronald Acuna and was ejected. This sounds bad, but at the same time, it was Urena against the Braves so at least you didn’t get hurt like you probably would have.
Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks. Aces gonna ace as Cole earned a Gallows Pole with 19 whiffs. I wonder where he’ll go in drafts next year, can we expect a repeat of the same season?
Nathan Eovaldi – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Yep, I’ve come to expect something like this from Eovaldi on a given night. Good work fella.
Jacob Faria – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Faria went 66 pitches against the Yankees and survived. I wonder if we’ll see him get in a groove as a starter this year or if he’ll be a post-hype sleeper for 2019. 12-Teamers, I wouldn’t be drafting Faria, but label him as a guy to watch in the first few weeks of the year. He’s now in Triple-A, most likely to stretch out, so don’t expect him back until the final week of August at the earliest.
Zach Wheeler – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Wheeler really went heater heavy, throwing about 70% of them here and getting through the Orioles lineup, albeit it with 24 foul balls as his secondary stuff – curveballs, sliders, and splitters – weren’t all too sharp, returning 6/27 CSW. I need more than that if I’m going to really get on the Wheeler train for 2019.
Robbie Erlin – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s a Birthday Party for Erlin and of course we all didn’t show up. I’ll send him a nice note apologizing to make him feel better though. He’s human, he deserves it.
Kevin Gausman – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s good to see more splitters and fewer sliders with a decent fastball approach, but he really needs to execute the splitty a bit better. It really shouldn’t go 2/28 on whiffs in a given game. There’s talk of him moving around the rubber to get extra spin rate n all and that’s not something I’m going to put any stock in. If I see his splitter being super effective with fastballs up-and-in constantly, then we’ve got something.
Jeremy Hellickson – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Yep, this doesn’t help you at all. Maybe a slight help in WHIP, but was it worth it? WAS IT?
Robert Stephenson – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. Stephenson, buddy, you have to stop dishing out free passes like a comic trying to get people to his late night show.
Jose Berrios – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. We’re all upset. That’s three of his last four starts that we’re outwardly unhappy with from Berrios and we’re getting a bit tired of his schtick. His last nine starts have returned a 4.97 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 21% K rate, and 10.5% BB rate. Bleeeegh. Thing is, you shouldn’t move on. He’s not going to be on the full decline for the next month and he’ll most likely show up to be more helpful than bad. I know, I want to be super upset too, but that’s kinda how these things work. We’ll get through this.
Shane Bieber – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s just so hittable. It also doesn’t help when he was 1/12 getting strikes on his curveball (it was a fly out to center) and tallying just 2 whiffs total on 33 breaking pitches. That’s not Beiber’s thing, because that means he needs to throw even more fastballs in the zone. The same fastball that gets hit a ton. He’s going to have the sweet 7:0 K per walk games with 2 ER or so, but it’s going to come with your fair share of games like this. Thing is, you might have to endure it given the lack of upside options out there these days.
Carlos Rodon – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. After a tough third inning, Rodon bore down and gave owners five shutout frames to end his day. There are still many signs of regression – .210 BABIP, 8.3% HR/FB, adding up to a 4.61 SIERA for example – but I kinda dig the pitch-to-contact approach of Rodon these days. I can see a 22% K rate with a 3.60 ERA ahead with a 1.25 WHIP. That’s solid.
Vince Velasquez – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. This was the Red Sox and you really shouldn’t judge him too harshly for this, but at the same time Velasquez’s breaking stuff hasn’t been on point for a bit and I’m pretty worried moving forward. It’s totally possible he finds it again soon but if it doesn’t…it could be ugly.
Chris Archer – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Archer recovered a bit here after struggling out of the gate but a major positive here was 16/96 changeups, resulting in 78mph exit velocity on five balls in play. 11/16 for strikes and this is a good thing. A changeup thrown over 15% of the time – and for strikes! – will help Archer in the long run and I think we should be somewhat happy with Archer moving forward. Still the same old volatility that puts him on the outside of the SP #3 tier, but there is some hope. Oh, can you please keep your heater up in the zone though? K thx.
Marco Estrada – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. After boasting plenty of whiffs last time out, Estrada gave us…eight. Even if he has a pair of great starts ahead – let’s even make it three – would we still trust him? Sure wouldn’t boss. Exactly.
Kyle Hendricks – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Awww, Hendricks had a few solid starts behind him and was looking like he might be on the path toward a full recovery. HA Ha ha, just kidding, we all know that heater is a small margin for error and this is the result of it. Eight Ks are cool though, don’t stop with that.
Luis Cessa – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Cessa is a Cup of Schmo and you just can’t be upset at him. It’s just who he is.
Junior Guerra – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. This really wasn’t Guerra’s day, getting a bit Singled Out and not being too effective with his secondary stuff. It hasn’t been a strong month for Guerra, with three of last six coming with at least 5 ER and just a 16.5% K rate in his last seven starts. Blegh. I can see a Toby moving forward still, but the upside is lacking a little more than I’d like.
Jorge Lopez – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Speaking of Cup of Schmoes, the Royals called up Lopez and it went as poorly as you’d expect.
Jordan Zimmermann – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Remember that moment when Jay-Z was interesting? Baseball is weird.
Tyler Anderson – 4.1 IP, 9 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. We had some good times for a moment Anderson, but now that’s 20 ER in three of your last four games…all on the road. He’s an upside play, but his whiff rate hwas fallen in each of the last three starts and I think it’s time to look elsewhere.
Sam Gaviglio vs. Kansas City Royals – He suddenly pulled back with heaters and threw breaking balls, leading to a much better performance last time out. Few options anyway, so I’ll take the chance on that different approach sticking. I would also consider Jacob Nix against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Mike Minor vs. Los Angeles Angels – A decent amount of options with Joey Lucchesi against the Dbacks (21% owned though, would be the pick otherwise), Matt Boyd against the Twins, and even Jakob Junis against the ChiSox.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Matt Harvey vs. San Francisco Giants – It’s either Harvey of Mike Montgomery against the Pirates and I’m just not a fan of the southpaw.
Game of the Day
Blake Snell vs. Masahiro Tanaka – Who doesn’t want to see Snell dominate?
Would you drop kyle gibson for Ryu?
Nope! I’d hold Gibson.
Hey Nick, my opponent and I are in a streaming pitcher battle this week and I’m looking at options for tomorrow. My league is only an 8 teamer, so my options are a little more abundant.
I have all of the options that you’ve listed available to me, but how do you feel about Tony Disco vs. SF? I could also stream Flaherty vs. MIL who had 13 K’s against them back in June.
100% go with Flaherty. Without a doubt.
That Tony Disco start is still risky despite his last two starts going well.
Thanks Nick, Flaherty it is! I was actually quite surprised that he was available, even in an 8 teamer.
I know he has a small margin for error, but Hendricks looked excellent yesterday – 2 ER through 6, went out in the 7th and both baserunners he let up scored off Edwards. He also has just gotten BABIPed to hell. He has a 2.75 FIP over the past month with 10.5 K/9 and a 8.0 K/BB ratio. All of the metrics point towards him being much better soon.
That’s totally fair, he has been looking much better lately than the start of the year.
I hope you’re right and he’s still right around #50 on The List for that reason.
Do you like Luis Castillo vs SF or Glasnow vs BOS this weekend?
I’d roll with Castillo against the Giants.
Dynasty points league: I have all these pitchers for the same inexpensive price. Looking at the next 2-3 years, would you drop any of these guys for Touki Toussant?
Kyle Gibson, Luis Castillo, J.A. Happ, Shane Bieber
Nope, I’d hold all of those guys over Touki.
Love that you’ve been providing multiple streaming options. It certainly helps those of us in deeper leagues. Keep up the great work!
Thanks man! I try to mention them whenever I find myself debating between a few.
H2H Points where wins are worth a lot – need to skip one of the following starts to not hit my limit before Sunday:
Bumgarner @ CIN
Heaney @ TEX
Foltynewicz vs COL
Flaherty vs MIL
Gibson vs DET
I pounced on Cahill when he was dropped in my H2H QS league, but at the expense of Anibal Sanchez. I feel dirty about that, considering I still own S Bieber! Would you drop Bieber at this point and his 5.84 ERA / 1.54 WHIP over past 30 days? Options are the aforementioned Sanchez, Leake and Musgrove. All favorites of the top 100. Ty!
You guys should have a term for a pitcher who gets lifted for a pinch hitter earlier than their performance and pitch count would suggest they should due to pitchers hitting in NL parks. Happened to Eovaldi in Philly last night
I appreciated your writing every day.
Question: I found Bieber, Ryu, Marquez & Gray on the wire. I have Castillo waiting he get his thing together and give me useful starts on the last run of the season. In points league with QS, ROS and considering schedule, would you drop him for any of them? Which one would you rather?
Would you drop Quintana for Marquez or Holland?
So your colleague Austin Perodeau says it’s time to panic with Chris Archer. You say there’s hope, given time, etc. but what about ROS? Should he stay or should he go?
Which two do you prefer for streamers this week?
Lucchesi vs Az
Minor vs LAA
Heaney @ Tex
I’m a little worried about Lucchesi as AZ has roughed him up a couple of times-once at home and once on the road. His splits are also worrisome as his era at home is 3.77 vs 2.87 away. Would you still prefer him vs the others listed?
I know you said not to expect it to last with Ryu, but I’m sort of expecting it to last with Ryu….. please god of Street Fighter let this be real.
Hey Nick, I might ask this in your Friday thread tomorrow. Are you going to do the rankings with ROS schedule included? I was just thinking about Berrios and how these past few starts have been bad, but the next 4/6 look really nice (CHW, DET, OAK).