I don’t talk about False Starters a whole lot in these roundups, but I think y’all would appreciate a longer talk about Yonny Chirinos after his 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks line last night against the Royals. It’s a 3.48 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 22.5% K rate through 31 frames thus far – I’ll take that! – dancing between legit starter and joining the party in the second/third frame, leading him to four easy wins. And that’s the thing. I don’t really believe that much in Chirinos’ skill set. I see a .182 BABIP that is sure to rise…but his 68% LOB rate and 17% HR/FB are what keeps his 3.97 SIERA from rising higher. His actual stuff? Well, it has its moments, like what made us excited about him this time last year. Slider needs polish, splitter can be there and kill it or disappear completely and leave him hanging. His roughly 5 Innings Per Start/(game that’s actually a start but not really) means he’ll give you fewer strikeouts overall and lower expression of ratios when he does well. This could turn into a 4.00 ERA quickly without much in the K department to salvage and that’s not for me, but I’ll acknowledge this. Are you struggling in Wins or roll in a league that limits starts per week? Fine, go with Yonny. Do you need K production or strong ratios? I’d avoid the man. Maybe he actually gets time as a true starter moving forward, but even then, he’ll still get limited initially given time need to stretch out. It doesn’t speak to the kind of upside I suggest chasing.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Zach Davies – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Okay this is getting kinda dumb. Davies is holding a 1.38 ERA through six starts now, yet it comes with 6% K-BB rate (15.5% K rate, 9.5% walk rate), while his HOTEL of .283 BABIP, 87.4% LOB Rate, and 6.3% HR/FB lead to a grotesque 5.31 SIERA. It’s the kind of gap that makes you think “I want to get on this train so badly, BUT IT’S TOO FAR.” Consider it minded.
Kenta Maeda – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s the reverse Dusty Donut where you love the ERA, but the Ks are low and the WHIP hurts. We just can’t have nice things this year from Maeda, can we.
Jake Odorizzi – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Odorizzi is going to Cherry Bomb us all year long, surprising us against teams like the Astros here, then get bombed against teams like the ChiSox and Royals. Overall, the 9+ K per nine and 3.34 ERA has been a welcome surprise, though his last five have been plenty closer to what we actually anticipate (7.2 K/9, 3.80 ERA). He’s just not the arm I like trusting, but I get that he’s a Toby at the end of the day. Wait, a Cherry Bomb and a Toby? Sure, why not? Instead of a lot of 3 ER games, Odorizzi will have a lot of 1 ER and 5 ER games. The end result is the same.
Jeff Samardzija – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. He didn’t deserve the early hook and this looks awfully like a Minimalist Score, but I guess it’s nice that Loose Lips helped on a given night? Well kinda helped. Just one strikeout? HAISTFMFWT?!
Nick Margevicius – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s boring and a little surprising, but if you elected to run with it, you’ll take it. I consider him a bit of a TEEs with a 3.23 ERA and 4.42 SIERA supporting everything I’m seeing from him, but I’m okay streaming against poor lineups.
Frankie Montas – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Montas got burned by…himself, leading to six unearned runs and a soaring WHIP. Some believe I’ve been a little harsh on Montas in the ranks and I get it. The man is a Spice Girl who could take leaps through the year if this sticks. His short track record of success and lack of overall polish and defacto plus plus pitch forces me to be cautious of the leap.
Mike Soroka – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. It’s like all my dreams are coming true. I really wish his shoulder injury never happened in the spring, I wouldn’t have been so hesitant for his season debut and we could all be cruising toward salvation with Soroka at our backs. Seriously, 37% CSW here with a strong slider and even good changeups to boot.
Justin Verlander – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. THANK YOU VERLANDER. Enjoy your Gallows Pole with 15 whiffs.
Manny Banuelos – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I don’t think there will be a time when I jump on the Manny train. There just isn’t enough here.
Michael Wacha – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Save for the one blowup against the Dodgers, Wacha has been fine like a Toby through the year. I don’t buy the near 25% K rate with his low swing-and-miss stuff, but there are worse guys to roster.
John Means – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Across his last three starts, John has averaged under four strikeouts and averaged 5 IPS. You know what these means means Means, right? No. That we’re through. Done. FOREVER. Streaming Record: 17-14. Okay, not actually, I can imagine a bounce back and suddenly he’s a streaming option again, but I ain’t trusting his changeup/fastball command for now.
Tanner Roark – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Yep, that’s the Roark we all know and hate.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Ugh. Just when we thought he was cruising with his sliders/cutters and changeups, he went 2/17 CSW on the slow ball and things fell apart. I think you have to keep rostering him and hope for the best, but I feel your struggle.
Zack Wheeler – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. This one hurts the most tonight. A game after looking so dominant with heaters on both sides of the plate, Wheeler’s fastball took a major step down in velocity, averaging just over 95 mph after 98 mph last time out. That’s a huge drop. Meanwhile, his slider is still not what it used to be – hey, that’s the case with Thor, deGrom, and Wheeler! Hmmmm – and across his three secondary pitches, Wheeler earned just 2/37 whiffs. Yikes. It’s a really tough situation now. Do we trade low for him? What should we make of this velocity fluctuation? What about his secondary pitch feel? I’m not sure. I know the talent is in there and I have to believe he can return to it but…well, I don’t have the answers. I wish I did, my gut is to hold tight – Just under 85% of the season left! – but we just can’t tell right now.
Kyle Freeland – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. This was a borderline Still ILL for Freeland given its brevity, but given the Brewers + his wonky command all year, it seemed right. Completely understand if you went for it, though, but I think you’re safe hosting the snakes next time.
Brad Keller – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. I talked about Brad’s mehness last week and here he goes again on his own, going down the only road I’ve ever hated. That’s not the line. YOU’RE NOT THE LINE. And just one strikeout, Keller? HAISTFMFWT?!
Patrick Corbin – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. I just don’t get it. Why are there maybe five or six starters that are actually killing it. Everyone else has disappointments left and right and now we can throw Corbin into the mix. This year is the worst.
For those unaware, I’m forced to make my Streamer picks under the condition of sub 20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.
Clay Buchholz vs. Los Angeles Angels – The other side is more interesting with Griffin Canning, who I expect is already picked up in your league (I’d go for it if he isn’t there!). Bucky could have the better outing though, as he faces a weak Angels lineup.
Spencer Turnbull vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Bleeeegh. I was debating between this, Anthony DeSclafani vs the Mets and a few other meh names at the end. I like Turnbull’s ceiling ultimately so he gets the nod despite the matchup. I’m not a fan of this one.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Game of the Day
Griffin Canning vs. Toronto Blue Jays – If this goes well, expect a GIF Breakdown from me tomorrow.
(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)