Hitter List 9/28: Top 150+ Hitters For 2022 – Week 25

So with just one week left in the regular season (many head-to-head leagues are already over!), this is more like rest-of-season value with a sprinkle or two of the outlook for next season. I didn’t completely remove all injured players but did try to mention the more notable names that have been ruled out for the remainder of the season. The next version of the Hitter List will be focused entirely on 2023.

As always, let’s get some basics out of the way in terms of how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:

I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.

I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. Jon’s way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for Jon (and me) over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mate’s player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could I be weird. In a bad way.

Yes, these ranks vary from the official PL positional rankings that I also developed in the off-season. That’s because these are only mine – no input from others. This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.

I’m using 20 games as the threshold for positional eligibility in the List. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!

And now a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:

I’ve gotten more level-headed over the years regarding weighing stolen bases, but I still think they’re precious given how rare they’re becoming. Every steal is important, so don’t take those “chip-in” steals for granted. Finding steals at the end of the season can be a dogfight.

If I did want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart. While we don’t have much for rolling data in 2022, you can see where they currently are on a rolling chart and see how it compares to their career trajectory.

No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), and lineup context. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators. Unlike Nick, I’ll also look at other rankings as I prepare my own to feel how my colleagues value certain players, positions, or stats. I recommend trying as many of these things as you can until you find what you like.

Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.

On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.

Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 at-bats regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.

If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!

Ranking Notes

Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring myself and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!

One final point: At this stage of the season, specific needs and schedules mean everything! While I may rank one player a tier or two higher than another, there are more reasons now than ever to ignore such a gap in the late tiers if you’re after a specific stat.

TIER 1

José Ramírez has been good but not great for quite a while now, so I felt it was high time to put Trea Turner back on top. The steals are down a bit it’s his lowest of any season other than his debut in 2015 (he only played in 27 games) and 2020 (though his 2020 pace would have put him above 30 steals if they played all the games). I’m not concerned about it, though, as it’s not as though Turner is getting caught (he’s 25/28 in attempts). The Dodgers just haven’t needed him to run.

Welcome to the top tier, Pete Alonso! The counting stats have been incredible, and to top it off, the Polar Bear has been addressing the one minor flaw in his game—the strikeouts. As you can see from the rolling chart, he’s come a long way since 2020, and even in his worst stretches, Alonso isn’t striking out more than roughly 25% of the time.

TIER 2

Remember when people were worried that Mike Trout might be cooked due to that rare back disorder? He’s hitting .287/.345/.643 with 13 home runs and 50 combined runs and RBI in the 33 games since returning from that injury. Trout will always carry injury risk, but with 37 home runs in 112 games, he’s shown he can still be a huge contributor despite missing significant time.

Ronald Acuña Jr.has struggled to get the ball in the air this season, though that finally seems to be turning itself around. He’s still hitting the ball hard, it’s just going right to the dirt.

TIER 3

I honestly never thought I’d see Juan Soto hit below .250 for a full season, but here we are. At least the OBP is still above .400, even if it’s not the ludicrous .465 he had in 2021.

Here is the complete list of players who have 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 2022: Julio Rodríguez and Adolis García. That’s it. Kyle Tucker and Marcus Semien are close, but no one else will likely hit the mark. Garcia is going to get a lot more attention over the offseason than he’s getting now.

TIER 4

George Springer has five home runs in his last 15 games with a .283 batting average. He hasn’t been consistent with the power this season, likely due to a few nagging injuries, but Springer has looked better and better as the season progresses.

Matt Olson remains outside the top-15 first baseman despite playing every day this season. The 29 home runs and 95 RBI are all well and good, but a .234 batting average just doesn’t cut it. Olson is also sputtering to the finish line with a 31.6% strikeout rate in September and a putrid 28 wRC+.

Oneil Cruz just finished his fourth consecutive multi-hit game, but even more important is that he posted his fifth straight game without a strikeout. The improved approach combined with a spectacular September (six home runs, three steals, and a .287/.343/.564 line) has me excited about what he can accomplish in 2023.

Max Muncy continues to look like the real Max Muncy, which might just be evidence that his early season slump was related to his injury. ~~He’s a free agent in 2023, and Muncy’s landing spot will have a big impact on his projections and outlook.~~ Muncy signed a 1-year extension with the Dodgers a month ago, so we should get at least one more season of a fantasy-relevant Max Muncy. (Thanks for the catch, Chris!)

TIER 8

Speaking of old Dodger hitters who got off to a slow start and who will be free agents in 2023, Justin Turner continues to do Justin Turner things. The home run power hasn’t quite been there, though the four he’s hit this month are more than he hit in any other month, and Turner has an impressive 181 wRC+ since June 30. It’s hard to say what will happen to Turner this offseason, but as long as he’s a Dodger, he’ll have fantasy relevance.

Luis Robert isn’t returning this season, and I have no idea where to rank him for 2023 due to the injuries, so I’m leaving him right here. Honestly, this feels about right when you look at the extreme risk.

I’d love to see Nick Castellanos put on a fireworks show from now to the end of the season. I was high on him during the draft season but it just hasn’t gone Castellanos’s way in 2022.

Corbin Carroll looks every bit like the top prospect we were promised, and his placement on this list directly ahead of Wander Franco is very intentional.

TIER 11

Wander Franco is on a 14-game hitting streak, but it comes with no home runs or steals. He’s a bit of a fantasy enigma due to the limited pop and speed, which limits his potential. That said, Franco has an amazing hit tool and could develop more power. After all, he’s not even 22 years old.

Ketel Marte probably should have fallen even further, as the 14 home runs and five steals with a .242 batting average is a disaster. I think the batting average can bounce back, but not enough to make him a top-50 hitter.

TIER 12

Vaughn Grissom has finally hit a bit of an adjustment period, and I’d love to see him work his way out of it between now and whenever Atlanta is done in the playoffs so that I can be more confident that he can make these kinds of adjustments without falling apart.

Javier Báez has a 148 wRC+ in September with a .318 batting average. Baseball is a weird game.

TIER 14

Taylor Ward’s .333/.398/.531 line with four home runs and two steals in September have me back on board, baby. Hitting fourth behind Shohei Ohtani and Trout is a good place to be.

Triston Casas has three home runs and a 30.8% walk rate over his last six games with just a 15.4% strikeout rate. Whoa. I mentioned in last week’s Taxi Squad that the power hadn’t really shown up yet, but here it is.

TIER 15

Alejandro Kirk has a ground ball problem and I don’t know when or if he’ll fix it.

Cal Raleigh is this season’s Mike Zunino.

I see you, Lars Nootbaar. He’s on a five-game hitting streak where he’s flashed more pop than I expected (three doubles and two home runs), especially considering three of those games were against Dodgers pitching. Nootbaar has snuck back into the two-spot in the lineup as well, which is exactly where I’d love to see him hitting in 2023.

TAXI SQUAD

That Elvis Andrus ride was fun while it lasted.

And now, once again, it’s time for the Hitter List:

Rank	Hitter	Position	Change
1	Trea TurnerT1	2B, SS	+2
2	Aaron Judge	OF	-
3	José Ramírez	3B	-2
4	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	-
5	Freddie Freeman	1B	+1
6	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	+1
7	Mookie Betts	OF	+1
8	Yordan Alvarez	OF	+1
9	Shohei Ohtani	DH	+1
10	Pete Alonso	1B	+7
11	Mike Trout T2	OF	-
12	Kyle Tucker	OF	+1
13	Ronald Acuña Jr.	OF	-8
14	Manny Machado	3B	+1
15	Julio Rodríguez	OF	-1
16	Rafael Devers	3B	-
17	Francisco Lindor	SS	+1
18	Bo Bichette	SS	+4
19	Juan Soto T3	OF	-7
20	Nolan Arenado	3B	-1
21	Jose Altuve	2B	-1
22	Bryce Harper	OF	+5
23	Adolis García	OF	+8
24	Alex Bregman	3B	-
25	Austin Riley	1B, 3B	-
26	Randy Arozarena	OF	-
27	Michael Harris II	OF	+3
28	Cedric Mullins T4	OF	-7
29	Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	-1
30	Corey Seager	SS	+6
31	Eloy Jiménez	OF	+1
32	Marcus Semien	2B, SS	+1
33	Teoscar Hernández	OF	+1
34	George Springer	OF	+6
35	Kyle Schwarber T5	OF	+8
36	Adley Rutschman	C	+1
37	Carlos Correa	SS	+10
38	Steven Kwan	OF	+34
39	Starling Marte	OF	-10
40	Xander Bogaerts	SS	-2
41	José Abreu	1B	-18
42	Will Smith T6	C	-3
43	Matt Olson	1B	-8
44	Dansby Swanson	SS	-2
45	Willy Adames	SS	+1
46	Rhys Hoskins	1B	-2
47	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	-2
48	J.T. Realmuto	C	+1
49	Daulton Varsho	C, OF	-1
50	Matt Chapman T7	3B	-9
51	Bryan Reynolds	OF	+1
52	Amed Rosario	SS, OF	-1
53	Andrés Giménez	2B, SS	-3
54	Oneil Cruz	SS	+28
55	Salvador Perez	C	+1
56	Max Muncy	1B, 2B, 3B	+10
57	Nathaniel Lowe T8	1B	+2
58	Justin Turner	3B	+9
59	Tommy Edman	2B, OF	+3
60	Luis Robert Jr.	OF	+3
61	Christian Walker	1B	-7
62	Anthony Rizzo	1B	+8
63	Brandon Drury	2B, 3B, OF	+8
64	Gunnar Henderson T9	2B, 3B	+9
65	Ryan Mountcastle	1B, OF	+9
66	Jeff McNeil	2B, OF	-13
67	Trevor Story	2B, SS	-3
68	C.J. Cron	1B	+1
69	Tommy Pham	OF	+6
70	Hunter Renfroe	OF	+6
71	Brandon Nimmo	OF	+8
72	Christian Yelich	OF	-12
73	Jose Miranda	1B, 2B, 3B, OF	+7
74	Nico Hoerner T10	2B, SS	+10
75	Ian Happ	OF	-17
76	Alec Bohm	3B	+9
77	J.D. Martinez	OF	+4
78	Ty France	1B, 2B	+12
79	Kolten Wong	2B	+13
80	Anthony Santander	OF	+19
81	Byron Buxton	OF	-13
82	Luis Arraez	1B, 2B, 3B, OF	-27
83	Nick Castellanos	OF	+61
84	Corbin Carroll	OF	+24
85	Wander Franco T11	3B, SS	+10
86	Alex Verdugo	OF	-9
87	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	+17
88	Luis Rengifo	2B, 3B	+9
89	Joey Meneses	1B, OF	+9
90	Rowdy Tellez	1B	+12
91	Jake Cronenworth	1B, 2B, SS	+12
92	Ketel Marte	2B, OF	-31
93	Austin Hays	OF	-28
94	Gavin Lux	2B, SS, OF	-11
95	Gleyber Torres	2B, SS	+27
96	Andrew Vaughn T12	1B, OF	-2
97	Vaughn Grissom	2B	-8
98	Yandy Díaz	OF	+2
99	Josh Bell	1B	-42
100	Sean Murphy	C	+7
101	Riley Greene	OF	+8
102	Javier Báez	2B, SS	+24
103	Jose Siri		+13
104	Bubba Thompson	OF	+13
105	Josh Jung	3B	+13
106	Tim Anderson T13	SS	-5
107	Seiya Suzuki	OF	-20
108	Jonathan India	2B	-15
109	Jean Segura	2B, SS	-18
110	Joc Pederson	1B, OF	-22
111	Jeremy Peña	SS	+10
112	Oswaldo Cabrera	OF	+UR
113	Taylor Ward T14	OF	+29
114	Isaac Paredes	2B, 3B	+10
115	Triston Casas	1B	+UR
116	Yoán Moncada	3B	+9
117	Luke Voit	1B	-4
118	Bryson Stott	2B	-12
119	AJ Pollock	OF	+4
120	Jake McCarthy	OF	-15
121	DJ LeMahieu	1B, 2B, 3B	-10
122	CJ Abrams	SS	+19
123	Jake Fraley	OF	-27
124	Mitch Haniger	OF	-46
125	Alejandro Kirk T15	C	-39
126	Willson Contreras	C	+4
127	MJ Melendez	C	-13
128	Rodolfo Castro	2B, 3B, SS	+1
129	Josh Rojas	2B, 3B, SS, OF	+2
130	Jurickson Profar	1B, 2B, OF	+6
131	Carlos Santana	1B	+9
132	Ryan McMahon	2B, 3B	+1
133	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	OF	+1
134	Oscar Gonzalez	OF	+14
135	Mark Canha	OF	-20
136	Lane Thomas	OF	+2
137	Wilmer Flores	1B, 2B, 3B	-18
138	Ke’Bryan Hayes	3B	-1
139	Brendan Donovan	1B, 2B, 3B, OF	-7
140	TJ Friedl	OF	+3
141	Gio Urshela	3B, SS	+4
142	Alek Thomas	OF	+4
143	Cal Raleigh	OF	+UR
144		SS, OF	-9
145	Spencer Torkelson	1B	-18
146	Lars Nootbaar	OF	+UR
147	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	+2
148	Brendan Rodgers	2B, SS	-20
149	Luis Urías	2B, 3B, SS	-37
150	Josh Naylor	1B, OF	-3

Taxi Squad

Hitter	Position	Team	Comment
Jon Berti	INF/OF	MIA	Good stolen base matchups this week, but isn’t hitting.
J.P. Crawford	SS	SEA	Plays a lot and puts the ball in play, but doesn’t do much else.
Charlie Blackmon	OF	COL	Drop (after this weekend).
Kiké Hernández	2B/OF	BOS	Still at the bottom of the order.
Elvis Andrus	SS	CHW	Really ugly six-game stretch—3/25, no extra-base hits, no steals, no stats (besides the three measly hits).
Whit Merrifield	2B/OF	TOR	Three home runs and two doubles in his last seven games, but also lots of strikeouts.
Jesse Winker	OF	SEA	What an anticlimactic roller coaster his season has been.
Michael A. Taylor	KCR	OF	Power and speed come in flashes, but it’s there.
Kris Bryant	OF	COL	Drop. Tough to evaluate for 2023.
Corey Dickerson	OF	STL	The guy can still hit righties, I’ll give him that.
Tony Kemp	2B/OF	OAK	Scorching hot right now.
Jarred Kelenic	OF	SEA	Has looked like actual Jarred Kelenic in his last five games for Seattle.
Jo Adell	OF	LAA	Hitting for some power but not much else.
Nick Pratto	1B	KCR	Pitchers have found the holes in his swing.
Shea Langeliers	C	OAK	I’m mildly intrigued for 2023, maybe.
Drew Waters	OF	KCR	Pitchers seem to have found some holes. Hopefully, he can adjust.
Nick Gordon	2B	MIN	Hasn’t attempted a steal in a month.
Donovan Solano	2B	CIN	Points streamer with a decent schedule ahead.
Harold Ramírez	OF	MIA	Has slowed down a lot, but still hits third or fourth.
Nick Madrigal	2B	CHC	Injured and can be dropped.
Brandon Lowe	2B/OF	TBR	Back on the IL. OK to drop.
JJ Bleday	OF	MIA	I like that he’s still taking walks, but he’s making absolutely no contact.
Dylan Carlson	OF	STL	On the IL. OK to drop.
Ji-hwan Bae	2B/SS	PIT	Has gone through a bit of a rough patch the last two weeks or so.
Ha-Seong Kim	2B/SS	SDP	Puts the ball in play. He’s a points streamer when he leads off.
Manuel Margot	OF	TBR	Constant injury risk, but shows power and speed when active.
Stone Garrett	OF	ARI	Power-hitting prospect with three home runs in his last five starts.
Danny Jansen	C	TOR	Streamable catcher. The schedule is a bit tough, though.
Tyrone Taylor	OF	MIL	I’d like him a lot more if he didn’t bat ninth.
Joey Wendle	INF	MIA	Points streamer in the right matchups.
Travis d’Arnaud	C	ATL	He sits more than I’d like but is on absolute fire and has struck out just once in his last seven games.
Elehuris Montero	3B	COL	Should be dropped after the weekend.
Akil Baddoo	OF	DET	WOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Harrison Bader	OF	NYY	Back from the IL and could get some steals.
Cody Bellinger	OF	LAD	I’m not sure he’ll be drafted in 10- and 12-teamers next year.
Jorge Polanco	2B/SS	MIN	Had a setback, hard to tell if he’ll return.
Tyler O’Neill	OF	STL	Will only play a few games if reactivated.
Eugenio Suárez	3B/SS	SEA	Will only play a few games if reactivated.
David Fletcher	2B/SS	LAA	Will only play a few games if reactivated.
Ozzie Albies	2B	ATL	What a heart-breaking season for Albies.
Ramón Laureano	OF	OAK	There’s power and speed, but the injuries and ratios are too much for me to stomach.
Patrick Wisdom	1B/3B	CHC	Decent schedule ahead, but hard to trust.
Randal Grichuk	OF	COL	Should be dropped after Sunday, if not before.
Trey Mancini	1B/OF	HOU	The plate discipline is good but the power isn’t there.
Andrew McCutchen	OF	MIL	Heating up at just the right time.
Franmil Reyes	DH/OF	CHC	He’s trending towards a DH-only designation on most sites (15 games in the OF so far), which would crush what little value Reyes still has.

4 responses to “Hitter List 9/28: Top 150+ Hitters For 2022 – Week 25”

Chris Griffin says:

September 29, 2022 at 11:35 AM

Saw your note about Muncy being a free agent after the season and that he could be leaving the Dodgers. I thought Muncy signed an extension with the Dodgers a month or so ago.

- Scott Chu says:
  
  September 29, 2022 at 12:12 PM
  
  Thanks for the heads up! Totally forgot about that news. I’ll make that correction – Dodgerland is exactly where we’d want Muncy to be anyway.
  
Leo says:

September 29, 2022 at 2:15 PM

Are you going to do a hitter list for the postseason as well? That would be awesome!

- Scott Chu says:
  
  October 4, 2022 at 3:50 PM
  
  Unfortunately no, but the Too Early Hitter List will publish in about 2 weeks.

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Hitter List 9/28: Top 150+ Hitters For 2022 – Week 25

Scott Chu

4 responses to “Hitter List 9/28: Top 150+ Hitters For 2022 – Week 25”

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