[hitter_list list_id=”18879″ include_stats=”1″ season=”2018″]
Welcome back to Hitter List. Every Wednesday during the regular season, I’ll rank the current value of the top 150 hitters for the remainder of the year. Use these rankings to help get a sense of both a player’s expected performance and his trade value in your fantasy leagues moving forward. They’re constructed with 12-teamer, H2H, 5×5 leagues in mind; adjust as needed for your specific setup.
As a reminder: There’s a ton of baseball left to be played, and these are rest of season rankings. We’re interested in the long view ’round these parts. As we progress further into the season, movements in either direction will get more aggressive. That said, if you believe I’m way off the mark on any particular player, feel free to make your case in the comments.
On to the highlights!
- Injury roundup: Obviously, the big one here is Corey Seager going down for the year with a torn UCL. Eric Thames also drops off the List this week after tearing a ligament in his thumb; that injury will keep him out of action for most of the remaining games before the All-Star break. Others taking a tumble in the rankings due to injury: Wil Myers, DJ LeMahieu, Adrian Beltre, Yasiel Puig, Miguel Sano, and Byron Buxton.
- New to or back on the List this week: Asdrubal Cabrera, Franchy Cordero, Yonder Alonso, Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Andujar, and Aaron Hicks. Cordero has some contact issues and he won’t keep hitting home runs on over 40 percent of his fly balls, but he’s got great tools and an extremely enticing blend of power and speed. The slumps will be ugly, and if the Padres outfield is ever fully healthy, Cordero’s not a lock for playing time. Most fantasy owners have gravitated toward Andujar, but at least for 2018 I don’t see a lot of separation between him and fellow rookie third baseman Candelario. Hicks fell off the List earlier this year due to injury and should have been back on it before now. Occasional oversights like that will happen, though hopefully kept to a minimum.
- This week’s honorable mentions: C.J. Cron, Matt Kemp, Eduardo Escobar, Scott Schebler, and Max Kepler.
- A few of the major risers this week: Eugenio Suarez came back way sooner than expected from a broken thumb and immediately resumed being awesome. He’s available in more leagues than he should be. Didi Gregorius has cooled off a little in the last few days, but the results so far suggest a player who’s taken a legitimate leap. Ronald Acuna is finally here and looks every bit as good as advertised. Yoan Moncada is also flashing the form that made him a top prospect.
Hey Kyle, I love the weekly list and agree with the majority of your rankings. I have a couple catcher questions. What is the rationale for not ranking Francisco Cervelli? I know he’s hitting at levels he’s never done before, but he joined the Launch Angle Revolution (TM) thsi year. I’m in a points league and so far he’s out scored Molina, Posey, Ramos and Contreras. Even if he cools off some, I think he can still be better than some of Gattis, Castillo, McCann and Zunino. I think Castillo, in particular, is overrated by the industry. He runs hot and cold and never stays healthy. Thoughts?
You’re right – there’s definitely a strong case for Cervelli. He and Kurt Suzuki have probably earned a spot at this point. They’re doing what some of us expected Beef to do – hit for power and average from the catcher spot.
kyle — thank you for creating this exceptional resource week in and week out. it’s tremendously helpful! quick question for you on bellinger: just curious, why the substantial drop? dude seems to be crushing the ball (*purely subjective analysis) and has just missed out on a couple dongs that i’ve watched. what are you seeing that you don’t like?
How is a guy like Ian Happ ranked above a guy like Jose Martinez?
Every week I am miffed by the Ian Happ ranking on a list that I otherwise like and agree with. Happ is batting .233, has been dropped to the bottom third of the batting order, and is sitting what seems to be one out of every 3-4 games. I could pick 40 players underneath him I’d rather have on this list. I’ve seen him dropped in 5/6 competitive leagues.
The people have spoken, and they do not like Ian Happ. I really do think he’s better than this, but it’s definitely ugly right now. Expect to see him drop substantially next week barring a sudden turnaround.
Kyle: Thanks for this great weekly resource. Does positional scarcity factor into your rankings? Also: I know that Aaron Hicks’ very fluid place in a powerhouse Yankee lineup will affect his counting stats but do you think he has Top 100 potential?
It does factor in – otherwise there’d be way fewer catchers. :) I wrestle with how much weight to put on positional considerations every week.
I’m a Hicks fan and could definitely buy him as a Top 100 bat, particularly with the lineup around him. It’s just hard to trust him because he hasn’t managed to sustain success for more than a month or so at a time yet.
Still believe in Brian Dozier (22 overall) despite the slow start huh? He’s batting under .200 and his OPS is under .500 over the last 2 weeks and he got bumped up 2 slots. Any specific reason to feel that confident? I want to believe … :)
Yep – nothing scary in the profile and the track record speaks for itself. The two-spot bump is from other guys being moved down – generally most slight movements like that will have more to do with the fluctuation of other players.
Would love to know why you ranked Semien so far ahead of Solarte? Solarte has a much better walk rate and strikes out 10 percent less than Semien. BABIP seems to indicate that Solarte is getting unluckier than he has in the past, while the opposite seems to be true for Semien. WRC+, Barrel% ISO, HR/FB, etc. all seem to favor Solarte. Even as far as their xStats are concerned, Solarte seems to have the edge. VH% are nearly identical, and Solarte’s OUTs score seems to be much better than Semien’s. In fact, the only thing I see Semien edging Solarte out on is that he swings at less balls out of the zone (Solarte makes contact more though on pitches in the zone), and Semien definitely edges Solarte out when it comes to Hard/Soft% hit balls. I’m asking because I have Solarte, but Semien is on the WW. My gut is saying stick with Solarte, but seeing this list has made me second guess myself.
I should note though that I am using custom scoring settings for the first time this year, so SB are definitely not as valuable as they are in most leagues. It’s a combination of scoring settings used in the Ottoneu leagues
( https://ottoneu.fangraphs.com/support ) and a combination of points per R, RBI, etc. Some guys in the league wanted to maintain some degree of luck and use the more traditional fantasy stats mixed in with this new scoring system. We are loving it thus far. Anyway, in this league Semien has only outscored Solarte by about 15-20 points. Just think Solarte ends up finishing with a higher total.
Yeah, for me the SBs make a significant difference, as does Semien’s place as the leadoff hitter for a sneaky-good A’s lineup. I actually have been a Solarte fan for a while as well, and he is hitting cleanup. It may be time to give him a boost. That Jays infield could get crowded in a hurry when/if everyone is healthy though.
Love the ability to plug in Solarte at 2B/SS/3B, and his spot in the lineup. Very fair point you bring up though about what will happen once that Jays infield is healthy. I think I’m going to ride the Solarte train as long as I can. Thanks for the response!
I’ll join the chorus of people who appreciate this list but are dubious about your Happ ranking.
Also wondering about your optimism on Jose Martinez, jumping him 18 spots. Over the past two weeks, he’s hitting.217 with 3 RBIs. Also he says he’s banged up. Why the 18-spot bump?
Happ should be gone and Soler should be added.
Soler’s plate discipline has improved substantially. I think he should be on this list as well.
Dont understand the logic of Bradley Zimmer being so high compared to those around him and how he has been doing
I dropped Josh Bell and Matt Carpenter this week to strengthen my SP position, mainly because I autodrafted the back half of my draft and ended up with too many 1Bs. I also have Greg Bird coming off the DL. So I was surprised not to see Bird on the list at all? Plz explain.
Oh, and why is Puig so low?!
gonna post this on the 5/9 Hitter List DERP