(Photo by Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire)
There are a lot of pitchers always on my mind, to assess and create models of n all, and I have to admit, Freddy Peralta is one of the toughest to nail down. He gave us a super blegh start last night of 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks against the Marlins and despite having a longer leash in the Brewers rotation than expected, I’m sure you’re having some doubts. This is a wild one as Peralta actually did a great job of staying over the plate, just a little too elevated at times. He also wasn’t nearly as deceptive as previous starts as he earned 18 CSW but induced 24 foul balls. That’s wild. The Fish made him work and Peralta had to turn to his curveball 24 times, good for 0 whiffs and 5 called strikes. Did I say good? That’s bad. It highlights the importance of at least one strong secondary offering for not just Peralta, but any starter, really, but I’m still surprised to see his heater getting fouled off 19/66 times. I’m not sure if I should lean “meh, it happens” or “this is a sign”. I mean, it was the Marlins. I’ll think about this.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Jacob deGrom – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace as deGrom can’t stop being incredible. Does any team have the prospects to steal him from the Mets? Please?
Marco Gonzales – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I saw a comment talking about how I may have been a bit low on Marco in this week’s edition of The List and I’m not against the idea. He has scratched plenty of heaters for cutters and it has been working lately – the cutter is a good pitch, not amazing and he makes mistakes with it a decent amount but should be an improvement from his heater – and if you avoid him against the elite lineups, this should work. I can see
Sonny Gray – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Hey! Look at this! Gray pitched
a rehab game in Triple-A against the Orioles and I’m shocked at what I saw. Without looking it up, what has been Gray’s favorite pitch? His best offering over the years? If you guessed slider, you’re right, and he threw a whopping 2 sliders in this game. Absurd. He instead favored 45 hooks with 42 fastballs (and one changeup) and it worked, good for 35 CSW. Huh. I need to see him repeat it again with the same success before I can tell you to consider this at all given the floor we’ve seen, but I’m watching you Sonny.
Carlos Rodon – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. So Rodon has surprisingly been…fine this year. 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. K rate is under 20% and that makes this start a bit interesting. Color me disappointed when his slider got just 3 whiffs on 25 thrown. Nope, not buying yet til I see that slide piece take over.
Chris Sale – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Just a casual 43/110 CSW for Sale en route to 20 whiffs and a Gallows Pole. Nothing to see here.
Vince Velasquez – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s off the DL and looks…okay. I know the low ERA and WHIP are great n all but 2 whiffs on 17 secondary pitches is no going to cut it unless you play the Mets and friends. Blame it on the Mets.
Trevor Williams – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Ayyy, Trevor pulled off a good ERA outing as he’s no longer a TEEs and just accepted to be someone you don’t want to own.
Hunter Wood – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. I could make a lot of jokes based on Hunter’s name and I’m going to be the better man. Matt Andriese and Ryan Yarbrough each took three frames here. I’d really stop considering them as options. Please.
Carlos Carrasco – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Not gonna lie, I feel slightly weird saying that about Carrasco as it’s been a little bit of time since I feel like we’ve seen the real Carrasco. 5 IP isn’t it either but he’s still definitively Top 20 and this is cool.
Kenta Maeda – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. I can’t stop being impressed with lines like these from Maeda. In the past, I’ve hated a lot on Maeda’s low IPS – he doesn’t go six full too often – but it really doesn’t matter as he fanned exactly nine in each of his last four games. I just Kenta believe it. To be fair, this was the Pads and the Pads are bad – More at 11 – but if you’re a Maeda owner, you have to be happy.
Dan Straily – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Soooo Straily has had 7,6,7 K games in three of his last five. The other two? 1 and 1. Like how every single Zack Godley at-bat starts as I yell as the screen to throw a deuce for a strike. I’m not saying there isn’t a way to carve out some production for your team with Straily, just that it’s really hard to tell you when that will happen.
Luke Weaver – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. That’s back-to-back low ER 7 K games from Weaver and you’re beginning to believe. Yeah, I’m not there yet, sorry. This was the ChiSox -yes, those ChiSox – and he was 0/10 in called strikes with his curveball (1 whiff, 1 foul, 4 BIP). Sure, they were strikes, but I want to see him surprise guys with it, not induce balls in play. It’s not that good of a pitch. He’ll get a slight bump because of it as the bottom half of the list is a sea of mystery so that’s not saying a whole lot.
Gio Gonzalez – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Well it’s about time you did something productive. Even if it’s the Pirates, you still helped and I’m proud of you. Does that mean you want to own him everywhere again? Oh heavens no, maybe the rare 12-teamer, but there are other upside arms to chase. Oh…okay.
Joey Lucchesi – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. He was a Lu..gghesi? I don’t think I’m happy with this, but no so sad either. The Dodgers are tough n all. 2/32 whiffs on his Churve is pretty rough though, we might still be a start or two away from him actually locked in again. He’ll probably take a few steps back on Monday.
German Marquez – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Look at you Marquez, struggling to let me give you the ole Rocky Mountain Way label but then killing it against the Diamondbacks in your own home park. There are days where you look like you ate your Wheaties in the morning and other days where you ate your socks instead. Those days sock.
Jaime Barria – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Ehhhh okay. It’s just 1 ER away and maybe an inning from a decent head nod as we don’t say a word, expecting Barria to understand the deep level of meaning we just exchanged. I can live with that against the Mariners.
Chris Bassitt – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. But I can’t live with this as I need more from the talking Bassitt himself. Just one strikeout? HAISTFMFWT?!
Bartolo Colon – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. The Groan Ranger gave us a VVVPQS because he finds a way to allow 11 baserunners yet sacrifice just 3 ER. The man defies all logic and it’s a wonderful thing. Not for fantasy though, oh please don’t.
Lance Lynn – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Ehhhhh sure? I’m surprised to see some decent strikeouts here but if I’m going to call this a good day, that means we’re accepting the terrible ratios and you don’t want to do that.
Johnny Cueto – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. On the plus side, he had a great feel for his changeup – 11/25 CSW – and that’s the most important part of Cueto to nail down as the walls build on that foundation. Next up is slider and fastball command we’re good to go. This was the Cubs as well, so some props there for some production via 7 Ks, and I think you’re safe whenever he starts in the second half.
Mike Montgomery – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. After “The Monty Ballin’ Problem” some roundups back – (you’re unjustifiably proud of that title, aren’t you. GUILTY AS CHARGED) – Monty has since allowed at least 3 ER in each of his last four starts. Darvish or whoever the Cubs get at the deadline, we’re waiting patiently.
Jordan Zimmermann – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Welp, that was a fun ride as Jay-Z threw away his blueprint, threw over 50% heaters and pulled back his deuce. Maybe it’s just a one start thing, or maybe three starts were the actual outlier. Odds are that- Yes I know what the odds are, Steve. Streaming Record: 55-31.
Burch Smith – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. This is the savior of the Royals staff. It’s no coincidence Burch is also what I use to kindle my campfires. NONE AT ALL.
Dylan Bundy – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. He didn’t have his slider in his DLH start and it wasn’t working too well against the Yankees, forcing him to use a curveball against Greg Bird with the bases juiced and it was launched into the seats. I’ve already seen comments about this one, which I’m a little surprised about. It’s two starts off the DL + the Yankees, you have to be a little kinder here to Bundy and I expect him to rebound post ASB. He’s already bounced back this season effectively and it would be unwise to judge him harshly given the circumstances of his last two starts.
Mike Foltynewicz – 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. 36/98 CSW. 16 whiffs with 11/39 on his slider. Oh right, 5 ER though as it was a standard Careful Icarus, throwing shutout ball through the first six. Then a solo shot. Then a GRAND SLAM. Not cool Folty, not cool. It’s kinda weird how a blowout game actually hurt Folty here, as he would have been pulled sooner if this were any closer. So it goes.
Tyler Mahle – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Apparently, I don’t give Mahle enough respect on Pitcher List. Little did y’all know that I was told about this start for a while and wanted to warn you guys subtly. You’re welcome. In actuality, I think he’s a decent arm with some upside to him, but it’s little too unstable for my tastes. This was the Tribe so I’m willing to forget it, and maybe he’ll get a stream from me in the near future. We’ll see.
Shelby Miller – 1.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. He has elbow tightness now as this entire idea of decency is decently dead.
Sam Gaviglio – 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. You kinda felt like a start like this was due from Gaviglio, right? We don’t get reminded enough of the floors of these types of pitchers often enough.
Lance McCullers – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks. Nooooo, I was thinking a lot the other day about how McCullers has quietly grown into a legit ace for your staff while staying healthy and then BAM, he hits you with one of his patented “Did I do that?” outings that makes you wonder why you ever believed him. Lose those emotions, McCullers bounces back each time and save for an injury – oh please don’t do this – all is well.
Felix Pena vs. Seattle Mariners – I have maybe three choices here and Pena is my favorite arm of the lot (Wilkerson and EJax). Just kidding, I can only choose between Wade Miley against the Pittsburgh Pirates or Trevor Cahill against the Astros, both in DLH situations. THIS IS GREAT. I guess Trevor Cahill because I just hate Miley that much.
Nick Kingham vs. Milwaukee Brewers – He’s still owned in under 10% of leagues, so obviously I’m rolling with him.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Zack Wheeler vs. Washington Nationals – 19% owned! NINETEEN PERCENT.
Game of the Day
Luis Severino vs. Corey Kluber – Yeah this matchup is dope. Also super curious how Nick Pivetta does against the Orioles, of course. Feeling good about this one.
Kenta Maeda’s IP only suffer because Dave Roberts is a jerk-off. If he was on any other team and pitching the way he is he would routinely go 6 or 7 innings every time. You can’t penalize him for Roberts being an idiot
Of course I can. I won’t punish Maeda as a player, but what team he plays on affects his value.
Also, I call that “Dodgeritis”.
Completely disagree. The List isn’t a measure of talent or whatever… if he doesn’t go deep into games, he doesn’t go deep into games. This is a fantasy website, it doesn’t matter why he gets pulled. That’s like saying you can’t punish a guy who is always hurt. Sure it’s (usually) out of his control, but it affects his numbers and fantasy value.
You can, in fact, because Roberts isn’t going anywhere. Also Maeda has a strange contract that pays him out in increments of 10 innings per year over 90. Dodgers are incentivized to cut his starts as short as possible.
Anyone stop to think that maybe Maeda’s numbers are so good (particularly the low era/whip) is because he’s not seeing the lineup the third time through? He obviously has trouble the higher his pitch count gets and the more batters see his stuff.
Also, if you remember, the reason Maeda has such an incentive laden contract is because in his physical Maeda had one the worst evaluations ever! As Nick has said multiple times on the site he’s a huge injury risk. That’s also why you’re seeing less usage later in games. And I’m sure he wouldn’t have signed such a contract if he didn’t trust the team would use him in the most advantageous way possible. That means getting the most effective work out of him AND keeping him as healthy they they can for as long they can.
Why are you guys complaining about the great number he’s putting up. His usage has been working to get great results! Why screw with that at the risk of deminished stuff and/or injury?
Is Skaggs a Sit today or should I start him?
He’s a start. He’s been pitching too well.
A one start miss isn’t enough to label it DLH, to me.
Hi Nick! I should drop Garrett Richards for someone….
There are some options on WW.
Please pick the best one.
Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Luke Weaver, Joe Musgrove.
I am in W, SV, K,ERA, WHIP, QS, BB/9 league.
I dont need immediate option! Please choose with ROS and high upside!
I like Kyle Gibson the most there.
Hey Nick, I’m in a predicament with Ohtani stuck on my active roster as a pitcher – having no idea when/if he’ll come back as a pitcher this season. Would you drop him for Kyle Gibson or wait until this new update they are supposed to have for Ohtani on July 19th?
I don’t expect Ohtani to pitch this year, honestly. I think it’s up to if you need him as a hitter or if Gibson is needed to bolster your staff.
Pour out some of that 40 for Garrett Richards. I drafted T Walker and J Montgomery. Then I traded for G Richards. I might have some bad luck. MIGHT!
I can drop Richards for one of the following right now, and try and compete for the Win this week. Which is the best short term and ROS option? Eovaldi, Minor, Lucchesi
That’s horrid luck! Sorry bud.
I’d go with Eovaldi.
Are you considering Buehler a DLH tomorrow against the Angels? If I take him off my DL I’d be dropping Kingham as he’s the only player I’m ok with dropping right now, so the question is Buehler vs. Angels or Kingham vs. Brewers?
I have the same question. I hesitate to activate him as he’ll probably be on a limited pitch count and unlikely to snag a win. Then again … Angels at home.
Man that’s pretty close.
Even in five frames, Buehler has shown that he can still give you a productive evening.
Kingham for upside, Buehler if you need to be conservative.
In a vacuum, I think their floors aren’t so far a part, so I’ll go Kingham.
Hey Nick, going to drop Garrett Richards (sob) now that it’s very unlikely he pitches again this season. Going forward, Sonny Gray or Steve Matz?
I’d go with Matz.
Looks like Zimmerman was a Careful Icarus too, 8 baserunners and 1 earned through six which we’d all have gladly taken. Goes back out for the 7th with 77 pitches of particularly high effort innings and gets popped. DAMN YOU, GARDY!
Hey Nick! Looking for an outside perspective on a trade offer of my Nola and Starling for their Sale. Do you think the tier difference in SP is worth it enough to move that valuable bat to make it happen? I’ve never owned an absolute top flight SP before.