Folty Brakes

Old roundup.

I don’t talk much about Mike Foltynewicz anymore, especially not as much as I did in 2015 when he was looking like a great Spice Girl for too long. Last night he held a no-hitter through eight frames and allowed a HR to his first batter in the ninth, resulting in a hook and a 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks that is sure to attract pickups in your league. But should it? Well, five of his last six starts have combined for just 4 ER, albeit with a horrid 8 ER start in between…which was against the Nationals so it was a clear bench in the first place. He’s had strikeout games of 8, 9, and 10 Ks in that stretch and not too far fetched to think this is a new man, especially given that he had punched out more than six batters just once all season prior. As always, we need to ask: Has anything changed? The main thing I’m seeing is a greater emphasis on Curveballs, raising it to about 14% while holding a sub 10% rate prior. Not a huge jump and it’s not enough for me to think that he’s suddenly a major force that will save your year. He gets the Nationals next, so that’s an easy “no” for now…and the Braves face the Dbacks, Cubs, Dodgers, Dbacks to enter the second half. I’m avoiding this one as the odds just aren’t in your favor at the moment.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Scott Feldman – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Feldman Schmeldman. Hard for me to like owning you when you have a 3.78 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 4.08 xFIP a near 3.00 BB/9 and a 7.37 K/9. That just doesn’t speak “Yes! I won him off waivers!”

Jacob deGrom – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks. Aces gonna ace. It is so nice to have deGrom back.

Sonny Gray – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Atta boy Gray, taking advantage of the Braves like that. I think you need to hold back against good teams with Gray, but I don’t see why he can’t be at least a Toby for your squad.

Ariel Miranda – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He has a 5.12 FIP, 5.31 xFIP, 5.08 SIERA. Baseball is stupid.

Jason Vargas – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. As always, keep rolling with Vargas until he gives you a reason not to.

Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. The dude keeps rolling as he took down the Padres. Here’s to hoping that injury history doesn’t show his face and his 1.83 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 2.58 xFIP stays somewhat true to the end.

Mike Leake – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Leake held a 5.15 ERA over his previous six starts and I’m not ready to forget that yet.

Edinson Volquez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Go away Volquez. Okay. Oh…that was easier than expected.

Jacob Faria – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Man, Faria’s command issues just aren’t showing up and I’m finding it more difficult each time to resist his charm. It’s weird since I really don’t like his heater and lack of consistent strike option outside of that Fastball, but he’s getting enough swings out of the zone with his Changeup/Slider to make up for it thus far. It could stay like this for a while, or it could fall apart in the second half. I’d love to be taking that chance it sticks, obviously, but if you’re offered a legit bat upgrade, I’m taking that over Faria.

Jon Gray – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Dude, don’t you know DLH is a thing? You’re not supposed to be awesome this fast! Now he gets the Reds in Coors and I’d be tempted to throw him out there. Not sure that I’m game just yet but it is tempting…

Ben Lively – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. Raggedy Ann was pretty boring yesterday and this is kinda his ceiling. No thanks.

Michael Pineda – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I will take this as he faced the Astros. Sure, you want a few more strikeouts, but be happy and move on.

Robbie Ray – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 9 Ks. This is classic Ray. He faced a tough offense – the Rockies – and while the strikeouts were there, that WHIP and ERA are atrocious. ATROCIOUS.

Doug Fister – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Hey, that’s not a Grave MistakeGet it together, I want my jokes to be relevant n stuff.

Matt Garza – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. This isn’t terrible, but trusting Garza will leave owners feeling like this.

Chris Tillman – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. You Can’t Spell Win With Tillman…

Lance McCullers – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Blegh, I know it was the Yanks, but I want a little more dominance from McCullers, you know? I mean sure, it’s not bad and you could argue that he’s showing a high floor when it’s not a dominating start. I just, I dunno, want to always see him kill it, you know? YOU KNOW? Whoa, ease up there. CALMER THAN YOU ARE. I didn’–CALMER THAN YOU ARE.

Marco Estrada – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 7 BBs, 3 Ks. Jeeeeeeez, seven walks? I’d normally be willing to just write this off as a bad day and move on, but there’s also the fact that Estrada had two straight games of four walks before this one and he hadn’t walked four all season prior. This is worrisome.

Mike Montgomery – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. This is a Loss, right? The strikeouts are great but the ERA/WHIP hurt. Womp womp. Streamer Record 44-29-11.

Johnny Cueto – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. We’re still waiting for the re-coronation of Cueto and I’m not too sure it will return like I am with Tanaka/Verlander, etc. He’s just kinda…blegh.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Digglerx got shafted. Nah, just kidding, this is who he is.

Tanner Roark – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks. No injury here, just 85 pitches through three innings. Everyone has dropped Roark by now, right? If not, please do your neighborhood a favor, knock on some doors and make it happen.

Parker Bridwell – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. One Cup of Schmo for Nick? Ahhh, thank you, how much is that? Free of charge, we want to get rid of this one. 

Mike Pelfrey – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Remember when he maaaay have been relevant for a moment? That was fun. Kinda. I felt like a good person for a second.

Ervin Santana – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I think we finally have a nickname for Santana courtesy of Brandon Lundberg: Katy Perry. What, that’s terrible. Well, he’s the legit “Hot and Cold” pitcher out there as Santana hasn’t had a single one of his 17 starts end with 2, 3, or 4 ER. Seriously, it’s all 0-1 ER or 5+ ER. That’s ridiculous.

Gerrit Cole – 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Annnnnnd we’re back. This wasn’t even against a good team as he faced the Giants…but now he’ll have a pair of good outings and make you feel good about him again, then a string of bad ones…it won’t end. It’ll never end.

Clayton Richard – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton!

Today’s Streamer

NONE – First of all, Miranda got moved to yesterday, so there goes my streaming pick. The rest of the options are just terrible, with the best being Derek Holland against the Rangers and that it just horrendous. I’m sitting this one out, don’t hate me.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Nick Pivetta vs. New York Mets He’s expressed the strikeout upside and he gets an easy team this time around. I’d also consider Mike Clevinger against the Tigers, especially if I’m looking for a Win.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Alex Meyer vs. Minnesota Twins – If he gets at least 7 Ks without a terrible ERA/WHIP, that’s a dub here.

Game of the Day

Jordan Montgomery vs. Francis Martes – If The Bear can handle the Astros without a hitch, it’s hard to think he can’t handle anything outside of a date in Coors.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

9 responses to “Folty Brakes”

  1. Asher Dratel says:

    I’ve got all non-save pitching categories pretty much on lock this week, so I’m sitting The Bear today. It feels like a betrayal to do that to him.

  2. Soggy Arm says:

    Is Mike Montgomery a hold in a 12-teamer? Wait on Luis Castillo, or make the move now? Wacha’s also available, but…

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Don’t touch Wacha, depends if you think you’ll need Monty’s start against the brew crew next week.

  3. Matt says:

    Would you be benching Sonny Gray against any above-average offense or just the top ones? In a 10-teamer.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Depends on your situation for above-average teams, I think I do average or below in 10 teamer, above average and below for 12 teamer.

  4. Matt Nielsen says:

    Love me a good Lebowski reference.

  5. Chucky says:

    Well your “don’t touch Wacha” advice to Soggy Arm didn’t work out so well… starting Cahill off the DL @ Clev and Phil?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Crazy that Wacha pulled one out against the Nats, still don’t like him longterm.

      I really don’t like starting Cahill against the Indians (DLH and all), if I had to lock it in, I think I pass.

      I’d otherwise consider his start against Philly.

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