Feldman Schmeldman

If you told me that with Lester, Sale, Severino, and Quintana starting on a given day that Scott Feldman was going to be the one to earn a CGSHO, I...

If you told me that with Lester, Sale, Severino, and Quintana starting on a given day that Scott Feldman was going to be the one to earn a CGSHO, I would have had a good chuckle. A hearty, healthy chuckle that indicated we should be friends. But there it is, 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks against the Giants. Feldman Schmeldman. Alright, you deserve more than that today after 27 outs of zero ER. He’s a TEEs in my mind as his 3.54 BB/9 is horrendous, xFIP of 4.23 sounds about right, and his 7.08 K/9 rate doesn’t give you enough upside to chase. Heck, his IPS is still under 6.0 even with this complete game. The reason for his “success” thus far has been an improved Curveball, but man do his other pitches fall way behind. I wouldn’t be shocked if his deuce doesn’t keep pulling the weight and everything falls down in a hurry.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Mike Clevinger – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. I was planning on leading with Clevinger (Fast came up with “7th Heavinger”, solid), but then I remembered this was a spot start since Kluber is expected to return this week and all. But, this certainly put Clevinger on your map if you didn’t know much about him before. I’ve been intrigued with Mike for a bit, as his repertoire (and hair) reminds me a ton of Jacob deGromThe problem is that he lacks the finesse of deGrom, making me concerned that he can produce 0 ER starts often. He has the deep repertoire and velocity to make it happen, he just needs that extra layer of polish. It could be a small mechanical tweak, a mental adjustment, whatever, and if he does show up one day spotting corners and flowing through his repertoire like his gorgeous hair (did I mention he has a lot of hair?), then I’ll be all over him. Until then though, I think he’s too big of a risk in a 12-teamer if he gets a secure spot in the rotation.

Luis Severino – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Um, you’re going to see another Severino jump today. I really don’t see why I wouldn’t want to be going after him with so many questionable options in the 20s. Would you honestly tell me you’d rather have Danny Duffy, Jose Quintana, Marcus Stroman, Julio Teheran over Severino? Didn’t think so.

Jon Lester – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Anything you can do, I can do better…Well, actually exactly the same in a 5×5. I guess slightly worse if you take into account a K/BB league. Anyway, good to see Lester rebound and get on track against a hot offense. Nine strikeouts are oh-so-pretty and while I don’t see Lester as that team-defining ace you want him to be, he’s a clear asset that I’d love to own on all teams. Don’t forget that.

Tyler Chatwood – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I can hear Max Eddy cackling with delight as I type this. Chatwood’s increased velocity and repertoire that “plays up in Coors” doesn’t have me sold, I’m sorry. I think he’s a decent streaming choice outside of his home field, but logically it just doesn’t make sense to risk Chatwood without a more consistent and impactful reward in Coors.

Jose Urena – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. This is going to stick like a magazine thrown against a wall. This is the worst analogy I’ve every heard. But you’re thinking of that satisfying fall to the ground now, aren’t you?

Alex Cobb – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Was it pretty? Not really. Did he get a Win? Nope. Is this still fine and we can move on with our lives without much investing in Cobb? Sure can. Streamer Record 15.5-12-4. 

Tanner Roark – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s just…okay from Roark this year. 3.46 ERA, 3.02 BB/9, 7.34 K/9…Hey, this looks like he’s right around where he should have been last year! A middling passable #5 for your team. Yay…

Chris Tillman – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. This was a clear DLH situation as Tillman was held to just five innings here, but he produced 0 ER and it was enough for a Win.

Andrew Cashner – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Oh lord, no no no. Just don’t. But Nick! 5 ER total in his last four starts with a 2.63 ERA on the season! He’s holding a 5.78 xFIP on the year, a 4.95 K/9 and 6.26 BB/9. Holy hell that’s horrendous. This is the easiest TEEs label I’ll give all year.

Johnny Cueto – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. About dang time you allowed me to say that again, Cueto.

Joe Biagini – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Man, this looks pretty. Too bad it’s from someone who doesn’t have longevity nor rotation security. Or isn’t actually this good, I guess that’s an important point too.

Danny Duffy – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Solid, I want more Ks if I’m going to legit endorse you Duffy, but I guess the Indians really are bad at hitting lefties. I’m selling based on this outing if someone thinks he’s turned it around. I just don’t think he’ll come close to last year’s production, will get SPOIL’D at some point and just be blegh overall.

Michael Wacha – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Sure, I’m happy with this. It’s hard to get all too excited about Wacha against the Braves, but this is good. Even with this though, he gets the Cubs next and that’s a risky proposition.

Zach Davies – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Even if I’m cherry picking stats here, Davies still has a 3.45 BB/9, 4.20 xFIP (with Miller Park as him home) and a 37.0% hard hit rate over his last three “good” starts. I’m not buying that he’s returned.

Chris Sale – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. 10 Ks and one of the more annoying fifth innings you’ll ever watch that makes you scream UGH COME ON SALE. It’s like he reverted his approach back to the 2015 ways and it’s working…

Tyler Glasnow – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Command still isn’t fully there – his mistake pitches got crushed – but he’s moving in the right direction…? I dunno, I’m still far away from getting on this hype train.

Taijuan Walker – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Considering this was in Coors, I think we’re fine with this. I wouldn’t have started Walker here and now he faces PIT, which should be an easy start.

Dillon Overton – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Overton was on the mound for the first pitch, looked around and noticed no one was going to stop him, so he threw into the fourth before someone said “hey wait, isn’t that Dillon out there?!” Moral of the story: Look like you know what you’re doing and you’ll get away with a lot.

Mike Fiers – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks. Four walks and one strikeout. Why do this to yourself.

Matt Shoemaker – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Uggggh, when are we going to start getting the Shoemaker we actually want to own? I think he’s dropable until he shows up, that’s a 4.62 SIERA and 37.4% with a 11.0% BB rate thus far. Ouch.

Jeremy Hellickson – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. This was a clear bench and honestly I’m impressed it wasn’t worse against the Nats.

Sonny Gray – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Ehhhh I want to see 6 frames of production from Gray before I’m gung-ho. Still, at least he’s not getting shellacked and I still think he’s a #5 guy for the season.

R.A. Dickey – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Dickey told me that The Matrix: Revolutions was the best movie in the series. Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.

Ervin Santana – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. The Regression Angels have arrived! Where have y’all been? Oh Dave just had to get a Cinnamon Chai Latte on the way. Really Dave? Really? IT’S AROUND FOR JUST ONE MONTH A YEAR! Now let’s wonder how much that applies to Santana’s season.

Jose Quintana – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Boy am I happy the Yankees didn’t spend part of their farm on Quintana this off season. The biggest flaw I’m seeing is Quintana’s 4.04 BB/9, which seems like a product of his Curveball missing the zone four points more, getting fewer swings outside of the zone, and getting a hefty 7.5 point usage boost. It’s making his Fastball a lot worse as they can just sit on the pitch instead of chasing the deuce and that spells all kinds of trouble. I don’t think he returns to Top 25 levels, though I’m buying in the sense that he’s not a 4.00 ERA nor 4.00 BB/9 guy. The dude is back to his 2015 levels of hard contact mitigation (just 26.6%!) with a poor .311 BABIP. I see this falling the other way soon.

Daniel Norris – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh, this season is such a disappointment for Norris. I had such high hopes. Such high hopes!

Adam Wilk – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I feel bad for Wilk. He’s the guy that gets wrapped up in his girlfriend’s drama and doesn’t know how to handle it. Harvey, I had no idea I was going to pitch, don’t include me on this! He’s as textbook Cup of Schmo as you’ll ever find.

Today’s Streamer

Blake Snell vs. Kansas City Royals – I still worry about Snell long term with his walk issues, but the kid holds a 3.45 ERA with solid K upside. That itself warrants an outing against the Royals. Alex Wood against the Pirates is my secondary Call Boy for the day even after his disappointing start last time out.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Charlie Morton vs. Atlanta Braves – He’s on a roll and the Braves aren’t the kind of offense to make me reconsider. Jharel Cotton against the Angels also gets my vote if you need another arm.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Joe Musgrove vs Atlanta Braves – No liking where Musgrove is at right now and I need to get rid of this silly half a point in the W column, so let’s go .5 here. But what if you don’t get a Win. THAT’S A RISK I’M WILLING TO TAKE.

Game of the Day

Trevor Cahill vs. Texas Rangers – Yes, I’m watching Cahill today. These are the times we live in now.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

  • “regression angels” come on. a clear rip off from Razzball and their regression fairies term. stay original

    • Nick Pollack Nick Pollack says:

      No way!

      I’ve been saying that for years. Trust me, I have zero intention trying steal terms from Razzball. They do great stuff, I have to believe I can come up with something original here!

      Regression Angels come from me talking about the BABIP Gods, so they send their Angels to take care of business for them.

      Weird. Thanks for the heads up though, I probably should change it slightly to make sure there isn’t any confusion here.

  • Avatar Vic says:

    Great work Nick. Quintana or McCullers ROS? I’m in a 10 team H2H ESPN 6×6 category redraft?

    I personally think something is wrong with Quintana this year but McCullers’ health issues in the past do concern me. What do you all think?

    • Nick Pollack Nick Pollack says:

      I’d go with McCullers. Injury risks are a bit lessened this year given how many injuries have happened overall (and with many “non-injury risks”.

  • You said in regard to Luis Severino – Would you honestly tell me you’d rather have Danny Duffy, Jose Quintana, Marcus Stroman, Julio Teheran over Severino? Didn’t think so.

    I have Quintana… You would drop Quintana and pick up Severino? Would you own Aaron Sanchez over Quintana?

    • Nick Pollack Nick Pollack says:

      It’s Severino > Quintana > Aaron Sanchez in my book, so yes I’d drop Quintana for Severino.

      • Fair enough. So based on that input and my roster in a H2H yahoo 12 team league (with only 8 teams active currently)…

        You’d pick up Severino, drop Aaron Sanchez, and keep Quintana rostered?

        My current SP roster is:
        – C. Kershaw
        – E. Santana (dropping for Severino)
        – J. Quintana
        – J. Lester
        – M. Fulmer
        – L. McCullers
        – C. Martinez
        – A. Sanchez (DL)

        Should I drop Sanchez now? Once he gets off DL I would need to drop someone to make roster space for him. It’d either Sanchez or Quintana.

        • Nick Pollack Nick Pollack says:

          Gotcha. In an 8 teamer, it may be best to chase Sanchez’s upside instead over Quintana long term. Short term I still hold Quintana.

          Quintana is the safer play, but Sanchez does have a higher ceiling. In the short term, Quintana is the better hold given I don’t want to trust Sanchez in his first start or two back.

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