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We’ve got one slate on FantasyDraft tonight – it starts at 7:05pm eastern and covers all 12 games being played. That’s a pretty full slate for a Monday!
Must Play SP: Joe Musgrove, PIT ($17,700) vs KC
While the ERA hasn’t been great lately, Musgrove has been racking up strikeouts with 23 in his last 18 1/3 innings. He’s got a 3.30 Deserved Run Average on the year, suggesting that he’s pitched better than his standard metrics would tell you. Musgrove’s main attraction tonight is his matchup against the Royals, who are a weak lineup with a .310 wOBA versus righties. Musgrove should easily roll through this offense with the bonus of some strikeout upside, making him an attractive option at this price.
Honorable Mention: Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD ($17,600) vs COL
Value SP: Andrew Suarez, SF ($12,700) at SD
Suarez isn’t great, but he isn’t as bad as his 4.33 ERA – his 3.75 DRA and 3.94 SIERA are more accurate representations of his skill. Suarez likely won’t give you high strikeout totals, but he can give you solid innings at a cheap price, making him ideal in cash game formats. The Padres are a fantastic matchup for Suarez, as they have just a .302 wOBA against lefties. Suarez also gets to face them in Petco Park, one of the best pitching environments in baseball.
Honorable Mention: Erick Fedde, WAS ($10,400) at MIA
IF Jonathan Villar, BAL ($8,000) vs TOR (LHP Ryan Borucki)
Villar has been tearing it up over the last 15 days, batting .320 with four homers, three steals, and a .930 OPS. You would expect Villar’s price to be much higher with that kind of recent success. Jays starter Ryan Borucki has an awful 15.0% K-rate and a 4.26 ERA, so Villar will have the opportunity for runs and RBIs out of the Orioles two-hole. Villar has fared better against left-handed pitching this season and should be able to continue that in an extreme hitter’s park in Baltimore.
Honorable Mention: IF Elvis Andrus, TEX ($7,400) vs TOR (Glasnow)
OF Eddie Rosario, MIN ($8,200) at DET (RHP Jordan Zimmermann)
Rosario has been a non-factor since the All-Star Break, but his 120 wRC+ against right-handers in 2018 gives me confidence that he can still produce. This is the matchup you want to buy low on, against Zimmermann, owner of a 4.65 FIP and a 1.85 HR/9. I’ll gladly take Rosario batting second at an attainable price.
Honorable Mention: IF/OF Nicholas Castellanos, DET ($8,500) vs MIN (Moya)
Value: IF Amed Rosario, NYM ($7,200) at PHI (RHP Jake Arrieta)
We’ve got a special Rosario double feature, from Eddie to Amed! In contrast to Eddie, Amed is super hot right now, batting .340 with a .941 OPS over the last 15 days. He’ll be able to maximize his plate appearances as the leadoff hitter for the Mets, giving him the most chances to produce. Citizens Bank Park is very hitter-friendly, while Jake Arrieta has been getting roughed up lately and now has a 4.22 FIP.
Honorable Mention: IF Wilson Ramos, PHI ($7,300) vs NYM (Wheeler)
Top Stack: Blue Jays at Orioles (RHP Sean Gilmartin)
According to FantasyDraft, the Orioles are rolling out Sean Gilmartin, which means Blue Jays bats are extremely valuable. Randal Grichuk ($8,800), Kendrys Morales ($8,300), and Billy McKinney ($7,600) are my favorite plays, but you can roll with anybody in the lineup.
Honorable Mention: Yankees vs Blue Jays (Estrada)