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There are two slates tonight on FantasyDraft, with the main slate starting at 7pm and covering 12 games. The late slate starts at 9pm and features the four late matchups. There are three early matchups that aren’t included on either slate: Tigers-Cubs, Twins-Brewers, and Red Sox-Nationals.
Must Play SP: Zach Eflin, PHI ($19,400) vs BAL
It’s was an incredible June for Eflin, who posted a 1.76 ERA in five starts with 28 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings. Eflin’s got a 2.86 FIP on the year with a 24.5% K-rate. He’s throwing about 2 MPH harder this year, so there’s a legitimate impetus for the success Eflin has seen. Even if you don’t believe that he’s quite this good, he won’t have to be tonight against the Orioles to give you a worthwhile start. The Orioles lineup is anemic against right-handed pitching, with a .293 wOBA as well as a 24.7% K-rate.
Honorable Mention: Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($23,000) vs PIT
Value SP: Ryan Yarbrough, TB ($12,200) at MIA
Yarbrough was awesome in his last time out against the Astros, where he went 6 1/3 innings allowing just one earned run with four strikeouts and 10 groundballs. If he can pitch like that against one of the toughest lineups in the league, just imagine what he can do against the Marlins. Miami’s .279 wOBA versus lefties is the second-lowest mark in baseball, and they play in a pitcher-friendly park. I love Yarbrough in GPPs at this price, as it gives you payroll flexibility for some better bats.
Honorable Mention: Andrew Heaney, LAA ($15,800) at SEA
IF Yoan Moncada, CWS ($7,700) at CIN (RHP Anthony DeSclafani)
Moncada has struggled lately, but he’s still got a lot of upside at this price. He’ll be able to maximize plate appearances as the White Sox leadoff hitter, and that could lead to some runs in one of the best hitting environments in the league at Great American Ball Park. He’s got a great matchup against DeSclafani, who has a 4.45 ERA with a 5.12 FIP through five starts this year. His 1.91 HR/9 means that Moncada could go deep tonight. Moncada’s power and speed combo makes him very attractive in GPPs.
Honorable Mention: IF Marcus Semien, OAK ($7,300) vs SD (Richard)
OF Josh Reddick, HOU ($7,500) at TEX (RHP Austin Bibens-Dirkx)
Reddick consistently bats in the heart of the Astros order, as he’s hit third, fourth, and fifth in his last three games against righties. Reddick doesn’t have a spectacular fantasy profile, but he will see lots of runs and RBIs hitting in one of baseball’s top lineups. There should be plenty of counting stats to go around against Bibens-Dirkx, owner of a career 5.08 FIP in the majors. I’d look to Reddick as a cheap lineup filler in cash games, as he’s got a pretty high floor in this spot.
Honorable Mention: OF Teoscar Hernandez, TOR ($8,000) vs NYM (Wheeler)
Value: IF Eric Hosmer, SD ($7,400) at OAK (RHP Chris Bassitt)
Even with his dreadful performance as of late, Hosmer should still be more expensive than this. He’s still got a strong 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the year, and this is a great opportunity to buy low against Bassitt. Bassitt’s got a 4.63 SIERA through four starts this year and Hosmer gets to bat third against him. While Hosmer unfortunately doesn’t have much around him in the Padres lineup, he can still have a productive day for a very low cost.
Honorable Mention: IF Mike Moustakas, KC ($7,300) vs CLE (Bieber)
Top Stack: Reds vs White Sox (RHP Lucas Giolito)
I’m all over the Reds tonight as they take on one of the worst regular starters in baseball with Giolito, who still has as many walks as he does strikeouts. He should get trashed by the Reds in their extreme hitter’s park. Scott Schebler ($8,300) is a must play, and pairing him with Joey Votto ($10,000) or Eugenio Suarez ($9,400) should pay off.
Honorable Mention: Nationals vs Red Sox (Johnson)